[Ibon]

One of the worst case scenarios, and likely, is that collapse happens because of war and resource conflicts. In this case human agency through war will mask the environmental instabilities that are the underlying cause. If that happens we don't learn anything from moving through the consequences as it will all be framed mainly as a result of the human disruptions..... instead of driven by natural consequences and understood as such.

Such a scenario will be a wasted opportunity for cultural transition. No collective humility offered on the alter of our mother earth.

Damn, this is the most pessimistic and dreary paragraph I have written here on this site in 14 years!

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'O')ne of the worst case scenarios, and likely, is that collapse happens because of war and resource conflicts. In this case human agency through war will mask the environmental instabilities that are the underlying cause. If that happens we don't learn anything from moving through the consequences as it will all be framed mainly as a result of the human disruptions..... instead of driven by natural consequences and understood as such.

[GHung]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', ' ')........

Damn, this is the most pessimistic and dreary paragraph I have written here on this site in 14 years!

[KaiserJeep]

OTOH, those with "comfort, privilege and reason" also have property laws, law enforcement agencies, and armed forces up to and including nuclear weapons. The USA and Russia are definately Plutocracies. If you do NOT think that the two "Big Weenie" Plutocrats Putin and Trump are acting in concert to manipulate NATO and the UN, please raise your hand.

I just don't see a worldwide collapse, ever. I definately DO think the "Long Emergency" began around the first OPEC oil embargo, and will continue to advance incrementally for another century at least. We all know those parts of the World which are already in collapse. In another century, that will include China, Russia, and the USA. The next major player to fall will be the EU, iMHO - and I think it will go within 30-40 years. Before then, both France and Germany will exit the EU, and those acts will invoke collapse in all the other countries in Europe. By then, Britain will be an armed island garrisoned with US and Canadian troops, to defend against refugees from the EU.

Although WW3 is possible, the USA and Russia will continue the long, slow dance of MAD, whose real purpose is to intimidate other countries.

[KaiserJeep]

I still dislike the term A.I., because what computers have that people do not have is not intelligence. The real problem is that lots of people have way too little intelligence themselves.

Nobody entering into this debate has anything to worry about. But one of the things that went along with the basic Christian system of thoughts and values was a work ethic, since lost in the decades-long sectarian slide.

I was reminded of this when one of my long-time friends went through a Leukemia scare with his kid. She made it, but years of chemo took their toll, she is no longer the bright and inquisitive youngster she once was. "Don't worry" her parents told her, "You can always get a job as a teacher."

That's the problem, not enough kids in STEM curricula. Yet even when they get lazy, and say "I'm no good at Math", they are also not willing to work at manual labor, an assembly line, or to apprentice in a trade. Without a work ethic, they think they can pursue some LAS curriculae, learning nothing whatsoever that anybody will pay them for, and then enjoy life with a paycheck.

Well, try telling an employer you don't "want to do" anything, and then act surprised when you find yourself on the street. They pay you to do things they need done, and not what you want to do. It is called "work" after all, and not called "play".

If you are not gonna get a STEM degree, and also not gonna apprentice in some blue collar job, then go live in your parents basement, just don't reproduce is all I ask.

Now those of you who still work, go to work, pay your taxes, and support those drones. When push comes to shove, we can put a bounty on their scalps, and have some sport. Those that pay taxes need not worry, you will get the hunting permits.

[Newfie]

I don’t know that it matters much exactly which of our horsemen reach us first, at this point it is a coordinated Calvary charge with each one assisting the other.

I see 5 horsemen, which I’ll repeat for clarity. (As if anyone really cares, makes me feel good). Order is not important.

1. Over extended global financial system, lacks trust.
2. Climate change
3. Resource depletion (oil, water, etc)
4. Anti-bacterial resistant drugs.
5. Over population

As I recall the Limits to Growth report said that the models/graphs could not be trusted once one of the major trend lines started to break bad. Ther would be too much interaction between the various factors, things become chaotic in the downside. I think that’s about correct.

And as with all things chaotic the down side slope may not be smooth but a jagged ride of ups and downs generally trailing down.

As Tanada said elsewhere, time for prevention is past, start worrying about adaption. Which really means survival, cause you can’t adapt if your dead.

[Yonnipun]

One more problem I would like to point out which could cause a collapse. The end of the traditional family. Not so long ago almost any man could have a family if he had a job and provided for the family but nowadays things have changed. Woman do not need a provider any more . In social meda an average male is not attractive even if he has a job. There is a massive amount of sexually frustrated men out there. They choose to LDAR(lay down and rot) because of it.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Yonnipun', '.') They choose to LDAR(lay down and rot) because of it.

[jedrider]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Yonnipun', '.') They choose to LDAR(lay down and rot) because of it.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Yonnipun', 'O')ne more problem I would like to point out which could cause a collapse. The end of the traditional family. Not so long ago almost any man could have a family if he had a job and provided for the family but nowadays things have changed. Woman do not need a provider any more . In social meda an average male is not attractive even if he has a job. There is a massive amount of sexually frustrated men out there. They choose to LDAR(lay down and rot) because of it.

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'W')omen rightfully demand some emotional sophistication out of their partner....

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'W')omen rightfully demand some emotional sophistication out of their partner....

[Yonnipun]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hy not learn something productive or get a life instead of regaling this site with such nonsense?

[Cog]

Generally speaking, women are more motivated to have and enjoy sex within a emotional relationship, whether it's a real relationship or imagined one. If you are a guy who wants to "have game" with women, you need to understand that.

[evilgenius]

There's a lot of talk surrounding jobs of the future. Some people are saying that machines can't take over everything. They'll just take over the mundane. Except that machines are pretty good at most things sophisticated as well. Even the most inventive new human niche, the online click rated personality (where I think many people will seek refuge), can be done pretty well by machines. It is being said that certain highly specialized tasks will probably continue to be done by people. It's a sucker's game to get into most things, though. People will still work, but many fewer of them will.

I think the answer to the rise of artificial intelligence is to change the way ownership of large corporations is divided. I believe that classes of stocks should be set up to compete with each other. It should be rock, paper, scissors. No winner ever wins outright. Each class of stock simply has more say over a certain set of things pertaining to the welfare of a corporation. Those classes of stocks ought to represent the natural interests of those most likely to buy them, via what you can expect from the risk/return ration that underlies them, and they should affect other interests with their collective decisions. It's the right way to divide up the money that won't be paid to employees anymore.

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', '
')I think the answer...

[evilgenius]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', '
')I think the answer...

[Newfie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', '
')I think the answer...

[Yonnipun]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')hristian system of thoughts and values was a work ethic

[onlooker]

I totally disagree with Kaiser, most certainly a full scale Civilization Collapse will occur. It is looking more and more likely with each passing day. Remember it is converging catastrophes and discontinuities we are looking at. Unlike past times, we have overshot the carrying capacity of the ENTIRE earth. Physics and immutable laws inform us that a finite planet cannot continue to support an ever expanding mass of humans and their commensurate impact on the planet. The Environment is being severely degraded and depleted with regard to sustaining current human population levels. We are also stuck with a Socio-political/economic system that seems unresponsive to the level of threat we face. We have a misinformed and underinformed populace partly due to ignorance but also propaganda. Civilization cannot remain viable when the environment and its life giving functions begins to seriously falter. Certainly not a Civilization with so many people and so complex. Die offs, resource scarcity and subsequent conflict, Pandemics all will severely strain the viability and cohesion of human ecosystems and societies. It is also ironic that while this is a peak oil site, it is appearing more and more that the tipping point will be environmental as people succumb directly to environmental catastrophe or indirectly as Economics and prices reflect an environment that can no longer sustain so many humans. And finally to this appeal to technology is pure hubris. In societies reeling from all kinds of problems of varying intensity, how can one expect that the resources like money, time, expertise, manpower, energy and cooperation be marshalled under these circumstances. Highly unlikey.