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Remarkable fertility rate decline

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.

Re: Remarkable fertility rate decline

Unread postby Cog » Tue 05 Feb 2019, 02:12:52

I suspect the question of what is a sustainable population will get complicated quickly. Sustainable as to having no negative effects on the environment versus sustainable as regarding available energy will yield big differences in numbers.
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Re: Remarkable fertility rate decline

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 05 Feb 2019, 03:10:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', '
')
Now my argument is not that we shouldn't provide Medicaid for the poorest citizens of our country, but the fact so many of the poor are having children at all is troubling to me. Without the government intervention, they could not afford to have them at all. At the end of the day, someone has to pay for all of this.


Shouldn't this be a reason to not be against abortion?
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Re: Remarkable fertility rate decline

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 05 Feb 2019, 08:33:48

It’s a good reason to support birth control, family planning, sex education, counseling, and a whole raft of ideas that work reduce the need for abortion.

I view abortions as the result of failures. They may be necessary but mostly could be avoided.

All we need is level heads on both sides to approach the issue from this perspective:

“How do we cooperate to reduce the demand for abortions?”

Fat chance.
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Re: Remarkable fertility rate decline

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 05 Feb 2019, 08:39:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'I') suspect the question of what is a sustainable population will get complicated quickly. Sustainable as to having no negative effects on the environment versus sustainable as regarding available energy will yield big differences in numbers.


There is no doubt that the discussion would be “interesting” and in unexpected ways.

Yes defining “sustainable” is a challenge. But even deeper is for the country to ask itself:

“What do we want to look like as a country in 100-200 years?”

Which would inevitable lead us to ask:

“What are our core values, what do we cherish, WHY are we here and what do we want to accomplish with life?”

Obviously no simple answers will come out of this, but BETTER answers would come. It’s a process one needs to start without being certain of the finish. But one does need to have a sense of the general direction which in this case IS simple:

More people or less?
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Re: Remarkable fertility rate decline

Unread postby Cog » Tue 05 Feb 2019, 08:50:45

All of what Newfie said about the abortion issue, plus this.

If you are in a desperate financial situation avoiding pregnancy should be high on your priority list of things to do. I would offer a financial reward to those who would be sterilized. Something reversible you could pay for your self when you have improved your situation. It would be your choice.
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Re: Remarkable fertility rate decline

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 05 Feb 2019, 08:58:39

Having gone through TWO vacetomy reversals it’s not for the faint hearted, it’s expensive, and it’s iffy.

P.S. DONT ASK. Life works in mysterious and diabolical ways.
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Re: Remarkable fertility rate decline

Unread postby Cog » Tue 05 Feb 2019, 11:28:35

That is the point in offering a financial incentive to get the sterilizing done. You really have to WANT to get it reversed. A figure a lot of people won't bother.
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Re: Remarkable fertility rate decline

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 07 Feb 2019, 21:08:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'T')hat is the point in offering a financial incentive to get the sterilizing done. You really have to WANT to get it reversed. A figure a lo of people won't bother.

Or at least not have the tax code incentivize having kids. When overpopulation is, in many ways, at the root of a lot of modern society's problems, trying to get people to have more kids is the height of lunacy.

(I'm not trying to say we should bar people from having kids. But until our problem is too few, stop with any economic incentives.) And I know, in the first world government is so big now that it's not practical to do that in the short run.
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Re: Remarkable fertility rate decline

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 08 Feb 2019, 15:31:11

It may not be practical but is the alternative? All things are relative.
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Re: Remarkable fertility rate decline

Unread postby Daphne64 » Wed 20 Feb 2019, 16:20:31

I'm in the US, so I'll stick with that for now. I understand a lot of countries are having sharply declining fertility rates, though. A lot of people are concerned about the declining fertility rates, but NO one is calling for studies to find out why. It should be relatively cheap: All an agency has to do to start is a phone poll. Track down women ages 20-24 and ask if they have had any children in the last few years. Then ask if they have been sexually active, used birth control, used fertility treatments, etc. Next call 30-34 year old women and ask the same questions, but relating to the time 10 to 15 years ago. But NO one is calling for this, even though the numbers are an absolute crisis.

Here is website with a pretty good graph of whats going on.

https://ifstudies.org/blog/number-2-in-2018-baby-bust-fertility-is-declining-the-most-among-minority-women

I'll give the highlights (lowlights) of the study here.
For girls 15-19 there were 41.1 births per 1000 in 2006, but 18.8 in 2017, a drop of 54%!
For women ages 20-24 there were 105.5 births per 1000 in 2006, but 71.0 in 2017, a drop of 33%.
For women ages 25-29 there were 118.0 births/1000 in 2006, and 97.9 in 2017, a drop of 17%.
For older women the numbers have increased from 2006 to 2017.

And, as the title of the article implies, births have dropped more sharply for minorities, especially hispanics.

What is going on with younger women? I have heard theories like greater access to birth control, less sexual activity and delaying marriage for economic reasons. Increased abortions are a nonstarter since they have also decreased in the last 10 years. Does anybody really think that teenagers and women in their early 20s are more sexually responsible, or having fewer kids because they are delaying marriage? (As a side note, the illegitimacy rate has increased in every age group; the overall illegitimacy rate has only stayed stable because girls and younger women are having fewer kids).

Take a look at the graph and notice the drop really starts in 2006. That's the year Gardasil was introduced. Combine this with Gayle DeLong's study on fertility in 25-29 year olds by whether they have had the Gardasil or Cervarix shot. https://www.bmj.com/content/361/bmj.k2059/rr-5

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')quot;This study analyzed information gathered in National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, which represented 8 million 25-to-29-year-old women residing in the United States between 2007 and 2014. Approximately 60% of women who did not receive the HPV vaccine had been pregnant at least once, whereas only 35% of women who were exposed to the vaccine had conceived.


Other possibilities would include glyphosate and other environmental toxins.
I think somebody needs to look into this. A drop of 54% in teenagers, while good for the teenagers, is pretty alarming if it's a sign that many women are permanently infertile or subfertile.
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Re: Remarkable fertility rate decline

Unread postby Cog » Wed 20 Feb 2019, 17:52:56

Or women who have received the HPV vaccine, to prevent cervical cancer, are much more careful about their health to include reproduction, then those who didn't get the shot.

Glyphosate is safe regardless of the hysterics about that particular chemical. Its one of the most researched chemicals out there.
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