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Saudi Aramco IPO

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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 17 Feb 2019, 22:22:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')xactly right. Thats exactly what I've been trying to explain to you for several years now. 

In spite of your repeated insistence the IPO would happen in 2016, and then more of your posts and more insistence on the IPO happening in 2017, and then another barrage of your inaccurate posts insisting it would happen in 2018, in the real world the IPO hasn't happened yet. It has been postponed and delayed for years now


Are you done making crap up? Please show us where I specified a date that I thought the IPO would be done? I linked to various statements and spoke to what was being told to the world by Aramco and SA. And you conveniently ignored the part of what Nasser said regarding the fact they had not cancelled the IPO (which you claimed they had at one point) but that they could not complete it until the purchase of shares from SABIC was completed as it would require having to reissue the prospectus given that the financials of the company would have changed. Nasser actually lays out the exact timing required. He is the CEO and President...I guess you can ignore his viewpoints if you wish but he is one of the few inside of the tent who are speaking to the public about plans.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')nless....and this is a big caveat.....unless another alternative strategic play comes into view again, necessitating another delay. 


Yes anything is possible, the world could get struck by an asteroid as well or the Nashville Predators might win the Stanley Cup or Scotland might win World Cup Rugby. :roll:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')es, there has just been a significant change to KSA/Saudi Aramco business plan. Now they are talking about expanding Saudi Aramco to take on new oil plays and opportunities in areas OUTSIDE of KSA


Exactly how is that exclusive of doing an IPO? In fact that would be exactly what you would like to do as a Publically traded Super Integrated Oil and Gas company which has been their goal all along.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')It makes one wonder.....if buying SABIC caused a delay in the IPO as Saudi Aramco digested the new acquisition and updated their books, will taking on new properties and new oil developments OUTSIDE of KSA also require another delay in the IPO as Saudi Aramco digests these latest acquisitions and updates their books again and again


No they would not. The SABIC deal would require use of significant funds from ARAMCO’s warchest…they would be trading cash they have for equity and future cashflow which would have an immediate impact on their “point in time” valuation. On the other hand entering into a partnership agreement to explore or develop future oil and gas does not require anywhere near the amount of cash upfront (maybe a small signing bonus) and all they are committing to is future capital expenditures which has a much smaller impact (if any) on “point in time” valuation.

The point made in by Nasser and in many other articles is exactly what I have been saying...the reason they conducted the reserve audits and reorganized the corporation was in order to prepare for an IPO. If they weren't interested in doing the IPO they would not have done either.
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 17 Feb 2019, 22:30:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')...entering into a partnership agreement to explore or develop future oil and gas does not require anywhere near the amount of cash upfront (maybe a small signing bonus) and all they are committing to is future capital expenditures which has a much smaller impact (if any) on “point in time” valuation.


Thats a nice fantasy, but we don't know yet if Saudi Aramco will enter into one partnership, or several partnerships, or do a takeover and buy an existing company and their oil reserves, or even start up a global exploration program and buy their own leases and start up their own development program as part of their new plan to expand into overseas operations.

Lets just wait and see what they actually rather then making things up, OK?

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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 17 Feb 2019, 22:35:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'e')nter into one partnership, or several partnerships


doesn't affect valuation at time zero

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 's')tart up a global exploration program and buy their own leases


well first you don't "buy leases" you only get the right to explore and lift oil and gas. You pay an annual lease fee and commit to future expenditures, it is the same in every country I've ever explored in and that leaves very few left.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 's')tart up their own development program as part of their new plan to expand into overseas operations.


same thing. Committing to future expenditures whether they are exploration or development doesn't take money out of the bank at time zero.

The point is the SABIC deal and expanding overseas are not the same thing unless they were to decide to buy Marathon Oil, which ain't going to happen.
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 18 Feb 2019, 00:50:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '.')..you don't "buy leases" you only get the right to explore and lift oil and gas..


How do you imagine you are going to explore and lift oil gas without buying the lease to the land? You can't just barge in there and take the oil, you dummy. You have to purchase the lease first. Only after you pay the requisite lease fees do you have legal access to the resources there.

Leases are sold at lease sales like these being offered by the BLM here in the USA

oil-and-gas/leasing/regional-lease-sales

Get it now?

Sheesh! How did you ever get along in the oil biz without knowing that?

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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 18 Feb 2019, 13:14:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow do you imagine you are going to explore and lift oil gas without buying the lease to the land?


you should try to learn a bit about how oil and gas E&P works around the world before you start pontificating like you are an expert.

Companies do not "buy" leases in most of the world. By law in every country in the world with the exception of the US oil and gas along with mineral rights are owned by the country. A foreign company can acquire the rights to explore for and extract hydrocarbons either through direct negotiation or as more often the case participation in a bid round. In that effort, a company proposes a forward work program where they will agree to a minimum work program with associated capital expenditures. In many countries there is no upfront payment, all that is required is a commitment to the work program which is often backed up by an LC or similar instrument (unless the company is large enough to provide their own backing). In some circumstances, a signature bonus will be required which can be anywhere from a few hundred thousand dollars to a few million dollars usually dependant on the anticipated competition in the bidding round. The company will generally pay a yearly lease fee which is quite small along with other small fees for local education etc. That fee grants them access to the land for the period during which their concession grant holds (usually 5 years with a possibility of 1 or 2 year extensions) but they do not own the land/lease nor do they own the hydrocarbons. So as I said there is no large up-front investment in this case. How do I know? I did this sort of thing for over 30 years around the world.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')eases are sold at lease sales like these being offered by the BLM here in the USA


As I said the US has completely different regulations than anywhere else in the world but that being said the term “sale” is a misnomer given a company simply gets the right to explore for oil and gas on the acreage for a period of time, in the case of BLM it is 10 years at which point all oil and gas rights revert to the state. The upfront payment which is a competitive bid for the sale is quite small. As an example in Colorado last year the highest price bid per BLM acre was $1,000. Given the acreage available in the US is relatively limited the amount Saudi Arabia would pay if they were to win all bids (impossible) would be inconsequential given their enterprise value. As an example in the last Colorado lease round the total receipts were under a million dollars which included forward admin fees and yearly rentals. That is a drop in the bucket compared to the $70 billion required to purchase SABIC. And even if Aramco was interested in entering into the US they would not be looking at BLM lands but would have to be looking at freehold acreage. In that case, there is a relatively small payment to the landholder upfront and then an agreed upon yearly rental fee (small) and a royalty payment (usually around 20% - 25%). Their more likely method of entering the US (assuming they decided that made sense) would be to farm-in on a large piece of another companies interests. The way that is handled is generally that all forward work would be leveraged such that the buyer (in this case Aramco) would pay 100% of the Capex to gain whatever earned working interest they have negotiated (say 40% - 50%). Again this just requires a commitment for future expenditures and little in the way of upfront spend, hence having little impact on the financial analysis conducted for the IPO prospectus.

So, once again, whether it is in the US or anywhere else in the world entering into an E&P agreement through direct negotiations with the government or through an official bid round results in at most a trivial amount of upfront cash, especially when compared to the impact a purchase of SABIC would have on Aramcos immediate bottom line.

Get it now? :roll:
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 18 Feb 2019, 19:10:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Companies do not "buy" leases .....


Of course they do. There are lease sales and companies buy leases at the lease sales. I even linked to a lease sale in a prospective petroleum area being held by the BLM just in case you'd never heard of a lease sale.

But you still don't get it. Thats not surprising really, considering your often comical obtuseness on many topics.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')...an official bid round results in at most a trivial amount of upfront cash


Again, you just don't know what you are talking about. Yes, leases on land that has little petroleum potential often goes for a pittance. But leases on land that is highly likely to contain large amounts of recoverable petroleum can cost tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars per lease block.

Perhaps tens to hundreds of millions of dollars is a "trivial" amount of cash to you, but back here in the real world most folks would consider that amount of cash to be non-trivial.

Get it now? :lol: :-D :) :razz: :idea: :mrgreen: :roll:

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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 18 Feb 2019, 21:17:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')f course they do. There are lease sales and companies buy leases at the lease sales. I even linked to a lease sale in a prospective petroleum area being held by the BLM just in case you'd never heard of a lease sale.

But you still don't get it. Thats not surprising really, considering your often comical obtuseness on many topics.


OK...when you "buy" something it means you own it. If you buy a car you own that car forever, you don't have a requirement to do anything with it if you don't want to, you can sell it without anyone's permission, you can paint it, or have it compacted...it's yours.
When you acquire an oil and gas lease...whether it is in the US or anywhere else in the world all you have is the rights to explore for a limited time period. In the case of state lands in the US it is 10 years, in the case of most places in the world it is only 5 years. You do not have the right to sell that lease, you don't have the right to tear up the land and do anything other than drill for oil and gas or shoot seismic, and at the end of the term, you lose all rights unless it has been converted to a production license which requires further future commitments.
In any event, no matter what you want to call it, the amount of money required upfront to win a bid or a lease is minuscule in terms of Aramco's bottom line. SABIC, on the other hand, would immediately take out a large proportion of their cash on hand and other equity and, indeed, they would be likely to take on debt. The former would not require significant adjustments to the Prospectus (it would hardly show up in Aramcos financial statements) but the SABIC deal would change it entirely. That is the point that Aramco's CEO was making and what I have been trying to get across.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut leases on land that is highly likely to contain large amounts of recoverable petroleum can cost tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars per lease block.


OK please show examples of this happening as of late. In the US the highest signature bonuses are related to the offshore continental shelf blocks. In the U.S. OCS since 1953, the average bonus has been $3.2 million ($627/acre). However, the average bid in the past 10 years since 1988 has been $0.5 million ($122/acre). This is insignificant. The highest signing bonuses I have seen as of late are related to the offshore Egypt Nile Delta where significant discoveries have occurred. Those range from $1.3 to $11 million, the larger ones being shared by 2 to 4 multinationals.
SABIC is $70 billion and would require taking on a large amount of debt. Taking on billions in debt alone changes Aramco's financial picture enough that it would require a re-write of the prospectus, but $70 billion is about 30% of the current valuation for Aramco. $10 million, on the other hand makes up 5 x 10e-6% of Aramco's valuation.
It doesn't matter what is or is not a "trivial" amount of cash to you....what is important from the perspective of the IPO and issuing the prospectus is what is trivial in terms of Aramco's valuation. And any sort of bid round signature bonus would fall in the category.

But feel free to try and change the subject once again...your go-to method for debate.
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 18 Feb 2019, 22:24:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')OK...when you "buy" something it means you own it.


Of course. And when an oilco buys an oil lease it owns the oil lease. They don't own the land...they own the LEASE to the land. Do you get it now?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hen you acquire an oil and gas lease...whether it is in the US or anywhere else in the world all you have is the rights to explore for a limited time period.


Yes, thats what the word "lease" means. It means the right to use something for a limited period of time.

------------------------------------------

I think we have now discovered two reasons why you have been objecting to the idea that oil companies "buy" a "lease."

(1) You didn't know what the word "lease" means, and (2) you didn't understand that leases commonly come with restrictions.

So do you get it now?? Do you now understand that (1) companies actually do buy leases at lease sales and (2) these leases commonly come with all kinds of restrictions on what can be done on the leased land.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')In the US the highest signature bonuses are related to the offshore continental shelf blocks..... the average bid in the past 10 years since 1988 has been $0.5 million ($122/acre). This is insignificant.


Once again I have to correct your mis-statements. In 2016 Conoco Phillips bid 18.5 million for North Slope leases here in Alaska, and a 2018 oil lease sale in Alaska brought bids totaling 29 million.

SO do you get it now? As I already told you--- leases on the most prospective oil properties can run from the tens of millions to the hundreds of millions.

------------------------

Whew....thats three times I had to correct you in just one post. Would you be so kind as to accept the facts on these topics and not start going around and around on the same subject as you usually do. Its gets tedious having to correct your mis-statements on the same topic over and over again....I suggest lets go for an entirely new topic next time, OK? Please?.

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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 19 Feb 2019, 18:12:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think we have now discovered two reasons why you have been objecting to the idea that oil companies "buy" a "lease." 

(1) You didn't know what the word "lease" means, and (2) you didn't understand that leases commonly come with restrictions. 

So do you get it now?? Do you now understand that (1) companies actually do buy leases at lease sales and (2) these leases commonly come with all kinds of restrictions on what can be done on the leased land. 


As is your normal modus operandi you change the discussion/argument. What started this off was your claim that entering into a lease for E&P would cause Saudi Arabia to have to put their IPO on hold. And I pointed out that is not th,e case, in fact it is pretty dumb to think it would be and shows a healthy ignorance of how any of this works, pretty much the same ignorance you showed up thread regarding how the IPO and debt financing works. But of course that doesn’t stop you from blathering on and on about minutia that is not pertinent to your claim.

As to what leases are? Look moron, I was involved in evaluating, bidding and signing lease agreements for over 30 years on almost ever continent. I think I understand what it entails.
But thanks for the lecture from someone who has never had any involvement. :roll

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')nce again I have to correct your mis-statements. In 2016 Conoco Phillips bid 18.5 million for North Slope leases here in Alaska, and a 2018 oil lease sale in Alaska brought bids totaling 29 million. 

SO do you get it now? As I already told you--- leases on the most prospective oil properties can run from the tens of millions to the hundreds of millions


And as I pointed out that is not significantly material enough to cause Aramco to redo a prospectus.
Firstly lets look at the stress test. A signature bonus of $100 MM by Aramco amounts to 0.005% of their assessed market value, or 0.02% of their annual revenues. As a comparison for a fairly large independent company that % is less than the cost of one wireline logging program…i.e. in terms of corporate valuation it is insignificant.

But apparently, you don’t understand how the valuation works.
When the SABIC deal is evaluated it entails an extremely large payment which amounts to almost all of Aramco’s 2018 free cash flow and about 4% of its market valuation. They would have to take on a significant amount of debt affecting their debt/equity ratio. The valuation done by the investment bankers is now completely different whereas before it entailed a portion of downstream revenues and valuation of the P1 producing reserves after the SABIC purchase not only does the cash and debt position change but also downstream revenues double whereas reserve valuation remains constant. This is a complete change in the way the company looks for the purposes of a prospectus…you are now selling what is more of a downstream company with larger debt and less operating capital.
In comparison, if they were to enter into a bid round all that changes is the money out for the signature bonus. As I’ve pointed out the cash out is minuscule in comparison to either the company valuation or their annual cash flow, and because there is no revenue or no proven reserves associated with winning an exploration license it does not alter the upside valuation of the company either. It is essentially a non-event as far as the prospectus is concerned.

So go on an on about the meaning of “buy” or “lease” (when it is clear you have never been involved in a bid round in your life), it is unimportant to the original claim you made that entering into a bid round would cause Aramco to redo their prospectus. As I think I’ve demonstrated that is incorrect and shows a healthy ignorance of how valuations work.

But go ahead, play the fool some more, your good at it.
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 19 Feb 2019, 23:08:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')entering into a lease for E&P would cause Saudi Arabia to have to put their IPO on hold


1. Saudi Aramco's IPO is already on hold. Its been on hold years now---try to keep up.

2. Saudi Aramco has announced a new strategy to expand into foreign oil production. Sure....they might take out leases as you are suggesting, but they also might buy an existing foreign oil company, just as they bought a hunk of Sabic. IMHO they are more likely to buy an existing company to get their oil reserves, rather then trying to grow their own reserves from scratch by starting up an E & P program as you are suggesting.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')..your good at it.


Thank you.

And, I hate to point this out, but the contraction for "you are" is "you're"...not "your" as you've written.

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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 20 Feb 2019, 00:47:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '1'). Saudi Aramco's IPO is already on hold. Its been on hold years now---try to keep up.


we all know that Einstein.....the comment was in the context of what you were claiming up thread....Aramco would have to postpone again because they might look at acquiring E&P acreage somewhere in the world. Nice try to divert from your stupid comments though.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '2'). Saudi Aramco has announced a new strategy to expand into foreign oil production. Sure....they might take out leases as you are suggesting, but they also might buy an existing foreign oil company, just as they bought a hunk of Sabic. IMHO they are more likely to buy an existing company to get their oil reserves, rather then trying to grow their own reserves from scratch by starting up an E & P program as you are suggesting.


and your "opinion" is based on your vast understanding of Aramco's finances and business strategy as you have shown in the ridiculous claims you've made previously on this thread?

Why would Aramco need more oil reserves right now? Their current reserve situation (which has been audited) would make them the largest upstream O&G company in the world. They went after SABIC because their goal was to be the largest integrated O&G company in the world which meant they needed to increase their downstream capabilities. The CEO of Aramco said that much in his latest interview. The reason they would look at participating outside of SA is for diversification, which is another one of it's goals, not because they are worried about their reserves base. But apparently, you know more about their business than he does. :roll:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hank you.


first time I have ever seen someone thank someone else for calling them a fool. But I guess that is the way your mind works...if you can call it that. :roll:
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 20 Feb 2019, 02:42:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')your "opinion" is based on your vast understanding of Aramco's finances and business strategy ...


So it would seem. After all, I've been consistently right over and over again that the IPO was NOT about to happen.

The trick here is to gather as much information as possible, from multiple independent sources.

Its been amusing watching you stumble and bumble and fall for every press release made by the PR stooges in the media office at Saudi Aramco. And now that all the PR press releases about the imminent IPO have been proven wrong over and over for the last three years, you never learn from it. You just wait for the next PR announcement from the flacks at Saudi Aramco and then you regurgitate it like it is gospel. Its Hilarious.

I prefer to see what the experienced reporters and financial analysts at places like the Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times make of what is going on. And time and time again their skepticism about the timing of the Saudi Aramco IPO has been proven correct.

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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 20 Feb 2019, 17:34:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 's')o it would seem. After all, I've been consistently right over and over again that the IPO was NOT about to happen.

The trick here is to gather as much information as possible, from multiple independent sources.


Jesus wept. Lets recap

First you claimed that the WSJ was reporting the IPO was canceled, you were adamant that was the case.

When in fact, the IPO was never canceled, they have been working on plans for an IPO continuously and the official reserve reports were just released to Aramco (as the CEO stated in his recent interview). They have completed much of the work necessary, financial and reserve audits and have restructured the corporation specifically to allow for an IPO (as the CEO has pointed out).

Then you claimed the WSJ was reporting Aramco wouldn’t do an IPO because they were afraid of public disclosure of their reserves, which you claimed they had been lying about.

And yet not one but two independent reserve audits have been completed indicating the reserves are actually slightly higher than Aramco had previously claimed. The CEO announced this in an interview…so much for being afraid of public disclosure

Then you claimed that based on a New York Times article that Saudi Arabia had no spare capacity and that they would not rise above 10.3 MMb/d without a massive drilling program.

And yet in October of 2018 SA production was somewhere between 11.1 and 11.3 MMb/d, that accomplished without a massive drilling program, simply by using spare capacity

Then you claimed that Aramco would somehow “takeover” SABIC even though they were not planning on acquiring all the outstanding shares and then you claimed they would do an IPO of a combined Aramco and SABIC.

The CEO of Aramco has stated they will not seek more than the investment funds shares which means SABIC remains a public company. Being public means they can’t be put in a IPO whether they have a majority shareholder who is private or not.

You claimed that based on reports you had read that Aramco was only worth about 20% of the 2 billion that Aramco suggested the IPO might be listed at.

The math doesn’t work. They retain 50% of reserves which amounts to 134 MMB. Their full production cost is something in the order of $9.00/bbl which means at a Brent price of $60 the value of that oil is $6.8 billion in money of the day. Pretty hard to get to $400 MM valuation from that with a time value of money calculation and especially when you take into account this doesn’t take into account any of the value associated with the downstream business.

So, all in all, I don't think relying on journalists viewpoints whether they are from the Wall Street Journal or Buzzfeed has worked out for you.

You keep claiming that I have been predicting dates for an IPO to happen, which in fact I never did. What I have said all along is Aramco has been proceeding with getting everything in place to complete an IPO and they would issue the prospectus when it made sense to them. Delays have made sense for a number of reasons. That is exactly what the CEO of Aramco has been saying for several months.
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 20 Feb 2019, 17:57:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')the IPO was never canceled, they have been working on plans for an IPO continuously


Yes, for years now they have been working on the IPO continuously. Except when they're not.

For years now you've been claiming it is just about to happen, only for some little....delay.....to screw it up again. And again. And then again. And now again.

The latest announcement by a spokesperson for Saudi Aramco says the the IPO will occur in 2021. Well...that means no IPO in 2019, no IPO in 2020, and maybe an IPO in 2021. Obviously they are in no hurry to do the IPO.

us-saudi-oil-aramco/saudi-aramco-to-issue-bonds-in-second-quarter-2019-list-in-2021-energy-minister

We'll have to wait a few more years to see if this actually happens, or if this latest IPO schedule turns out to be as bogus as the past announcements on the timing of the IPO have turned out to be. :o :lol: :-D :) :twisted: :mrgreen: :roll:

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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 20 Feb 2019, 18:26:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')You keep claiming that I have been predicting dates for an IPO to happen, which in fact I never did..


Saudi Aramco has announced several dates for the IPO to happen, which you accept each time as gospel. Thats what we are in dispute over here, in case you haven't noticed. I have questioned in multiple posts whether Aramco will do the IPO on the dates they announce, and you then make posts where you state that you disagree with me and the IPO is definitely on track just as ARAMCO says.

Except you've been wrong every time and the IPO isn't on track. Its now years behind the original planned date for the IPO to happen---. I've lost track of how many times ARAMCO has set a date and then cancelled those plans and set a later date---just as I've predicted in each case.

Here's the most recent example: when Saudi Aramco said the IPO would definitely happen in 2018 you wrote "At each and every opportunity since they started down this road ARAMCO had stated they were on target with their original goal of an end 2018 listing. Throughout the period you claim they were stalled they were busy completing all the work necessary to put an IPO in place."

Please note that once again you were totally wrong. ARAMCO did not complete all the work to put the IPO in place for offering in 2018 as you claimed. IN fact ARAMCO's plan to do an IPO in 2018 is not only stalled, as I said, but it is now cancelled. The soonest they will try again is now apparently 2021.

Lets wait and see if that happens. I'm skeptical, based on ARAMCO's repeated failures to do the IPO in a timely fashion, but maybe they'll get their act together over the next 2+ years and actually do what they say they are planning.

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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 20 Feb 2019, 18:56:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')audi Aramco has announced several dates for the IPO to happen, which you accept each time as gospel. Thats what we are in dispute over here, in case you haven't noticed. I have questioned in multiple posts whether Aramco will do the IPO on the dates they announce, and you then post that you disagree with me and the IPO is definitely on track just as ARAMCO says.
 

Hardly

Here is what you said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n spite of your repeated insistence the IPO would happen in 2016, and then more of your posts and more insistence on the IPO happening in 2017, and then another barrage of your inaccurate posts insisting it would happen in 2018, 


Which in fact I never said. What I have said all along is they have been preparing the information in support of the IPO and they would no doubt execute it when it made sense. Do I need to find those quotes? Exactly why would they continue to do all the background work required for an IPO at considerable expense when there was no intent to complete it? Their timing is their timing and the best understanding of that is what the CEO of Aramco has stated several times….they still plan on executing an IPO but it will be when the time is right. Also note that Aramco never predicted completing an IPO in 2016 or 2017...they suggested early 2018 then postponed to late 2018 and then to a later date to be announced.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')lease note that once again you were totally wrong. ARAMCO did not complete all the work to put the IPO in place for offering in 2018 as you claimed. IN fact ARAMCO's plan to do an IPO in 2018 is not only stalled, as I said, but it is now cancelled. The soonest they will try again is now apparently 2021. 


Cancelling the IPO means they aren't going to do it at all which is not the case. They are simply postponing it to the appropriate time. Not the same thing at all, but nice attempt at wordsmithing to cover your ass. :roll:

What work did they not complete? The CEO of Aramco just stated that they had completed all the necessary work (the following quote from the interview with Nasser last month)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat I have to say about the IPO is that a lot of work has been done and the commitment is definitely there. The proof of that is what has already been done by the government and by the company. We have changed the tax rules, made a new concession agreement, changed Aramco into a joint stock company, and introduced a lot of fiscal reforms to facilitate a listing,”


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')verything that is required for listing is there. If the government decided, it could be done in no time

But apparently you know more about the state of work conducted on the IPO than the CEO of the company. :roll:
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 20 Feb 2019, 20:22:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')...ass....


Your potty mouth is overflowing. Please flush.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he CEO of Aramco just stated that they had completed all the necessary work


Thats clearly not true. For instance, companies planning IPOs have to open their books to potential investors so they can see the financial details of the company before investing. In ARAMCO's case this would include public disclosure on the state of their oil fields and current reserves. ARAMCO hasn't done this yet.

Do I have to explain everything to you?

Sheesh!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')apparently you know more about the state of work conducted on the IPO than the CEO of the company


I know they haven't made the kind of full and public disclosures about their business and their assets (i.e. oil reserves) that would be required to do an IPO in a major international market.

Of course, now that they've cancelled the plans to do the IPO in 2018 and delayed things again, this time to 2021, they've got plenty of time to get their ducks in a row.

Lets see if they can get it done this time.

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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 20 Feb 2019, 21:47:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')..ass....


Your potty mouth is overflowing. Please flush.


OK, so either you are completely illiterate or just stupid, not sure which, what I said was:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'b')ut nice attempt at wordsmithing to cover your ass.
You do understand what ass means in that context don't you? :roll:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hats clearly not true. For instance, companies planning IPOs have to open their books to potential investors so they can see the financial details of the company before investing. In ARAMCO's case this would include public disclosure on the state of their oil fields and current reserves. ARAMCO hasn't done this yet.


NO, not the case. For the two or three investment firms who are lead on the file they will have already seen everything. That is the first group who Aramco would have provided this to. The general public will almost certainly not get access to the information prior to the prospectus being floated, which it hasn't been as yet and won't be until they are ready. This has been explained to you several times previously. The CEO stated they have completed all the work, which means it is all in shape and all they have to do is file the prospectus which they will not do at this point until it has been updated with the SABIC information.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')o I have to explain everything to you?

apparently not simply because 1. you don't know what you are talking about and 2. I've been involved in numerous listings both IPO and RTO over the past few decades. I understand the process.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') know they haven't made the kind of full and public disclosures about their business and their assets (i.e. oil reserves) that would be required to do an IPO in a major international market.

as I said, this does not happen until the prospectus is floated which is just in front of initial trading. The CEO is indicating all of the work has been done which means that prospectus has been written but will now have to be revised with the SABIC deal considered once it closes. But you prefer to call the CEO of Aramco a liar. That is, of course, your choice. :roll:
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 20 Feb 2019, 22:56:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')..ass....ass....


Your potty mouth is still overflowing. Apparently its dribbling down your backside. Please flush again.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')The general public will almost certainly not get access to the information prior to the prospectus being floated, which it hasn't been as yet and won't be until they are ready.


Sure. But that proves my point, i.e. ARAMCO isn't ready yet to do the IPO.

When ARAMCO finally decides which market it wants to go public in, and then releases their financials in a transparent form consistent with the requirements of that market, we'll know the IPO is ready and finally going to market.. But until then, it isn't.

Do you get it now?

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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 21 Feb 2019, 14:09:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hen ARAMCO finally decides which market it wants to go public in, and then releases their financials in a transparent form consistent with the requirements of that market, we'll know the IPO is ready and finally going to market.. But until then, it isn't.


you are the one who isn't getting it. The financials are not released to the public until the prospectus is made available following the official filing of the IPO. As I said that is no more than a week or two in advance of the first day of trading. Those financials, reserves etc are all made available a long time before that to the "lead book" which is currently shared by several of the largest investment banks in the world. They have seen this data all along as they are largely advising on putting the prospectus together. This is the way it works in each and every IPO or RTO I have been involved in and the rules are pretty standard. The public only gets access to the prospectus and that is just before trading commences. The IPO can be ready to go for years in advance of that, which is exactly what the CEO is saying. But apparently, according to you he is lying. :roll:

as to the word "ass" used in context of a bodily part....if you think this is somehow "potty mouth" I suggest you grow up and enter the adult world.
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