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When will the government shutdown end?

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When will the government shutdown end?

Poll ended at Thu 10 Jan 2019, 13:30:49

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Total votes : 10

Re: When will the government shutdown end?

Unread postby Pops » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 15:40:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')Let him do it. I for one am all in for Trump to run like a wild fire out of control. The nature of politics today requires that Trump goes into full overdrive. Anything less is half ass :)

Not interested in meeting the overshoot predator quite yet thanks
8)
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: When will the government shutdown end?

Unread postby Pops » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 15:48:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', 'S')peaking of federal expenses caused by illegals: I was surprised

You were surprised to find anti-immigrant screed from CIS on the examiner?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ENTER FOR IMMIGRATION STUDIES
Founded in 1985 by John Tanton, the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) has gone on to become the go-to think tank for the anti-immigrant movement with its reports and staffers often cited by media and anti-immigrant politicians. CIS’s much-touted tagline is “low immigration, pro-immigrant,” but the organization has a decades-long history of circulating racist writers, while also associating with white nationalists.
EXTREMIST GROUP INFO:
Date Founded 1985
Location Washington D.C.
Ideology Anti-Immigrant
SPLC DESIGNATED HATE GROUP
While CIS and its position within the Tanton network has been on the Southern Poverty Law Center’s (SPLC) radar for years, what precipitated listing CIS as an anti-immigrant hate group for 2016 was its repeated circulation of white nationalist and antisemitic writers in its weekly newsletter and the commissioning of a policy analyst who had previously been pushed out of the conservative Heritage Foundation for his embrace of racist pseudoscience. These developments, its historical associations, and its record of publishing reports that hype the criminality of immigrants, are why CIS is labeled an anti-immigrant hate group.

https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate ... on-studies
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Re: When will the government shutdown end?

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 15:51:08

Are the stats accurate?
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Re: When will the government shutdown end?

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 16:05:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'A')re the stats accurate?


No. By it's own definition, the SPLC is a hate group that hates Republicans, Christians, and Conservatives in general. It also has moved steadily Left of Center over the last 3 decades, and has been severely criticized for such.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/06/maajid-nawaz-v-splc/562646/

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/06/28/morris-dees-splc-trump-southern-poverty-law-center-215312

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/acts-of-faith/wp/2016/02/17/hate-groups-rose-14-percent-last-year-the-first-increase-since-2010/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.be16a952de0a

https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Society/2011/0223/Annual-report-cites-rise-in-hate-groups-but-some-ask-What-is-hate
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Re: When will the government shutdown end?

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 16:34:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')Let him do it. I for one am all in for Trump to run like a wild fire out of control. The nature of politics today requires that Trump goes into full overdrive. Anything less is half ass :)

Not interested in meeting the overshoot predator quite yet thanks
8)


That Trump has been the agent is one of those funny quirks of unpredictable black swans but I am not complaining. It is so often true that when decadence reaches a certain level in a culture self destruction not only is inevitable but seems to happen on its own with little real objection. I think the Russians are marveling at this the same way I am. How easy this all has been, this implosion. If the apposing forces to Trump were honorable perhaps there would be reason to want to reign him in. Perhaps there would also be more of a spine demonstrated. But the sad truth is that the cancer is throughout the political and economic system and can also be found in the decadent values of your average Joe.

There is in the collective still far more desire to purge than to heal. You can't really fight the current. Let it run itself out, it has a ways to go.
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Re: When will the government shutdown end?

Unread postby Cog » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 16:39:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'I')bon, I'm way beyond mere disdain or dislike of trump's racism.

He's threatening to implement emergency powers. This will be and actual constitutional crisis.

This is no small thing.

You'll remember Abe did it and FDR did it, both during war.

trump is doing it because FOX told him to.


There have been over 40 national emergencies declared since the 1970's. By both Republicans and Democrats. But since your hatred of Trump has made you a bit touched and CNN didn't inform you of it, then it doesn't exist. If Trump builds the wall under the veil of an national emergency, it is not only legal but its proper to do so.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Emergencies_Act


Presidents have continued to use their emergency authority subject to the provisions of the act, with 42 national emergencies declared between 1976 and 2007.[7] Most of these were for the purpose of restricting trade with certain foreign entities under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) (50 U.S.C. 1701–1707).
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Re: When will the government shutdown end?

Unread postby Pops » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 16:55:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'A')re the stats accurate?

Stats aren't bumper stickers, google up "how many noncitizens on welfare" and try to sift out the lies from damned lies from the stats. But really, I could put up stats provided by Jesus himself and it wouldn't matter would it, lol

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ato says
CIS’ analysis is not compelling. A competing analysis of the same data by DHS, using the individual unit of analysis that Cato scholars have recommended, found that all immigrants have a welfare use rate identical to natives and that non-citizens only have a slightly higher usage rate.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')olitifact says about similar claims:
All told, the list is heavy with claims that are unsupported, misleading, or simply wrong.



https://www.cato.org/blog/center-immigr ... elfare-use
https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-mete ... culating-/
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Re: When will the government shutdown end?

Unread postby Pops » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 16:57:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'T')here is in the collective still far more desire to purge than to heal. You can't really fight the current. Let it run itself out, it has a ways to go.

You're right. I spend way too much energy trying to correct the internet.
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Re: When will the government shutdown end?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 17:00:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'I')bon, I'm way beyond mere disdain or dislike of trump's racism.

He's threatening to implement emergency powers. This will be and actual constitutional crisis.

This is no small thing.

You'll remember Abe did it and FDR did it, both during war.

trump is doing it because FOX told him to.


There have been over 40 national emergencies declared since the 1970's. By both Republicans and Democrats. But since your hatred of Trump has made you a bit touched and CNN didn't inform you of it, then it doesn't exist. If Trump builds the wall under the veil of an national emergency, it is not only legal but its proper to do so.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Emergencies_Act

Funny how when one side of the aisle doesn't like something the other side does, then it is often termed a "constitutional crisis".

Pops, just because you and I won't like it if Trump does it this way, doesn't mean such hyperbole is justified. And just maybe, the act of forcing it will allow some serious thought/effort to trying to solve the problem (or at least seriously mitigate it), vs. the endless game of kick the can that both sides have played for decades, while jawboning about how "important" it is, while trolling for votes.

What is the dem's answer instead? More welfare programs?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: When will the government shutdown end?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 17:05:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'A')re the stats accurate?

Stats aren't bumper stickers, google up "how many noncitizens on welfare" and try to sift out the lies from damned lies from the stats. But really, I could put up stats provided by Jesus himself and it wouldn't matter would it, lol

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ato says
CIS’ analysis is not compelling. A competing analysis of the same data by DHS, using the individual unit of analysis that Cato scholars have recommended, found that all immigrants have a welfare use rate identical to natives and that non-citizens only have a slightly higher usage rate.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')olitifact says about similar claims:
All told, the list is heavy with claims that are unsupported, misleading, or simply wrong.



https://www.cato.org/blog/center-immigr ... elfare-use
https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-mete ... culating-/

The census data is the census data. It's clear to me after looking at articles and statements from various political organizations on the issue that there is plenty of welfare paid to illegals. How the facts are interpreted depends on one's political persuasion. For example, instead of admitting that there is lots of welfare paid to illegals, dems tend to point out that even more is paid to US citizens. OK. Fine. But jingling keys doesn't mean that there aren't significant welfare costs associated with illegals.

And looking at sources like PolitiFact, I see analysis along the lines of "partially true" re the claims. If it was all "pants on fire", that would be a different thing.

Unfortunately, trying to find a likely unbiased source for recent, quality data isn't easy, as far as I can tell. For example, the GAO hits I get all seem to be for the 1995 to 1997 period. It seems high time to get some updated figures, given how the illegal alien population has grown over time.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: When will the government shutdown end?

Unread postby Pops » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 17:32:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'T')here is in the collective still far more desire to purge than to heal. You can't really fight the current. Let it run itself out, it has a ways to go.

You're right. I spend way too much energy trying to correct the internet.

Here's my new year resolution:
[serenity prayer]

... guess I'll go back to PFTF
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Re: When will the government shutdown end?

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 17:34:48

Trump in fact can declare a National Emergency. From Wikipedia:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he National Emergencies Act (Pub.L. 94–412, 90 Stat. 1255, enacted September 14, 1976, codified at 50 U.S.C. § 1601–1651) is a United States federal law passed to stop open-ended states of national emergency and formalize the power of Congress to provide certain checks and balances on the emergency powers of the President. The Act of Congress imposes certain procedural formalities on the President when invoking such powers. The perceived need for the law arose from the scope and number of laws granting special powers to the executive in times of national emergency.

The H.R. 3884 legislation was passed by the 94th United States Congress and signed by the 38th President of the United States Gerald R. Ford on September 14, 1976.[1]


At that time, FOUR National Emergencies existed. Since then, 46 more have been declared, and the total number of emergencies still in effect is 38. The subjects range from the Korean War to the hoarding of gold ended via the Bretton Woods Agreement, but by far the most emergencies - including those previously declared by Trump - relate to trade with foriegn countries.

Construction of a wall by the Army Corps of Engineers after Trump declares the S Border to be a State of Emergency is absolutely within the powers of a POTUS, I heard from the legal experts yesterday on the PBS News Hour.

Border enforcement by the US military has also been found NOT to violate the Posse Comitatus Act, as it is deemed a National Defense action, not a Law Enforcement activity.
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Re: When will the government shutdown end?

Unread postby Cog » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 18:59:47

Obama declared national emergencies 13 times. I guess I missed Pops outrage over those.

I have no idea if Trump is going to declare one to build the wall, but if what is happening on our southern border isn't an emergency, I don't know what qualifies as one.
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Re: When will the government shutdown end?

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 20:55:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'T')here is in the collective still far more desire to purge than to heal. You can't really fight the current. Let it run itself out, it has a ways to go.

You're right. I spend way too much energy trying to correct the internet.


It's funny, the organic non digital slice of society that visits us here in Panama are collectively a totally different set of characters then the 12 or so of us here at peakoil.com

The group here on this site is not exactly representative of the population at large.
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Re: When will the government shutdown end?

Unread postby Cog » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 23:06:42

Well Trump did not declare a national emergency but still has that option. He laid out the case of why border security is necessary and wants to the Dems to vote for it. Meanwhile the government is going to continue to be shut down which is the only leverage he has over the Dems. Schumer was lying when he said reopen the government and we can continue to talk about border security. The Dems have no intention of ever funding the border wall unless circumstances force them to.

Leave the government shut down.
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Re: When will the government shutdown end?

Unread postby Cog » Wed 09 Jan 2019, 16:52:34

Trump met with Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi. They won't budge or negotiate on funding the wall so the shut down will continue. Its too bad we are being held hostage by the Democrats on this. The federal government spends over $9 billion a day and Trump is asking for only $5 billion to protect the country for the entire year. Sad.

I guess since they live in walled compounds surrounded by armed guards, they forget about those of us that do not.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... wsrc%5Etfw

Just left a meeting with Chuck and Nancy, a total waste of time. I asked what is going to happen in 30 days if I quickly open things up, are you going to approve Border Security which includes a Wall or Steel Barrier? Nancy said, NO. I said bye-bye, nothing else works!
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Re: When will the government shutdown end?

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 09 Jan 2019, 17:33:31

Art of the Deal. Each side is betting they can control public opinion.

Just thinking, I wonder when someone with ambition will enter this fray with a compromise proposal in order to position themselves as America’s Saviour (and potential Presidential candidate). Rand Paul leaps to mind.
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Re: When will the government shutdown end?

Unread postby Cog » Wed 09 Jan 2019, 19:15:08

Lindsay Graham is working on a proposal that includes some Dreamer legislation. That will appeal to the Dems and some Republicans. Right now neither side wants to bend. If the Dems would offer Trump half the amount, $2.5 billion, I think he would grab it and a great many Republicans would be mighty relieved. But to offer nothing is not going to work with Trump.

Things start to get painful in a couple of weeks. Politicians are always scared of getting the blame so we will see who bends on it.
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Re: When will the government shutdown end?

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 09 Jan 2019, 19:26:18

I’m betting the D’s think they can break Trump on this one and will stick to their guns. Trump has already called, he’s all in, he will stick to his guns.

What will threaten both of them is some outsider playing middleman and making them both look bad.
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Re: When will the government shutdown end?

Unread postby Cog » Wed 09 Jan 2019, 20:42:35

Trump knows he can't bend on this issue. It would be like George Bush's famous "read my lips, no new taxes" but worse. He couldn't do his famous campaign rallies without getting booed if he caves on the wall. 2020 would be a tough election anyway but to cave on the wall would result in certain defeat.

But while I'm thinking about Trump. I'm not 100% convinced he enjoys being president. Its not all that much fun for him unless he is at a rally. He likes those. But the real aspect of the daily grind, he simply doesn't like the process of politics. Nor does he really understand it all that well. It would not surprise me if he doesn't run again. Apart from whatever the Special Prosecutor has to say about that issue.
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