by jdmartin » Sun 24 Jul 2005, 03:00:05
Well, the jump up in sales is obviously due to the incentives.
There are a number of inherent problems with incentives, especially when it comes to huge-ticket items like cars.
First, you give incentives like that and people will come to expect them. That means you always have to outdo the incentives you had before. A race to the bottom, so to speak. Except it's very difficult to bring the cost of a car down very much. So these companies are going to have a hell of a time in the future keeping sales up.
Second, and more important, major incentives only cannibalize future sales. What it basically does is gets everyone who was thinking about buying a car in the next several months to come in and buy it now. Of course, the market for cars is finite, rather than infinite. So when all of them people are finished buying their cars, the companies are going to be in for a big surprise: there's not hardly any buyers left out there.
I don't think I would say it is complete short-sightedness, as it is unlikely that in the next 5-7 years (average lifespan of the car) that cars are going to go away. So if you really needed replacement personal transportation, it was probably a smart time to buy. If you didn't need it in the first place, it was a waste regardless of Oil.
The bigger problem for the auto industry, as I see it, is the continued stagnation of working wages, which is allowing fewer people of the masses to avail themselves of new cars. I have a friend that owns a upper-end used car dealership, and he has told me in the last 3 years good used cars are getting impossible for him to come by. They go to the dealer auction to pick up the vehicles - most of them trades on new vehicles - and there's hardly anything worthwhile to choose from, because the dealers are keeping the good used cars now for themselves. Why? 2 reasons:1, more profit on a good used car, and 2, not enough people anymore can afford the new cars.
After fueling up their cars, Twyman says they bowed their heads and asked God for cheaper gas.There was no immediate answer, but he says other motorists joined in and the service station owner didn't run them off.