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U.S. Becomes Net Oil Exporter

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: U.S. Becomes Net Oil Exporter

Unread postby Pops » Sat 08 Dec 2018, 00:40:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')quot;the refuting of one of our fundamental PO Articles of Faith:
"once you've peaked, further growth in supply, is over."


Come on, Pops. You know that is a silly straw dog. No one with half a brain has ever claimed that an oil production curve is smooth and symmetrical.


LOL Pete, this is me, Pops.
How many times on this site have we proclaimed that inexorable decline starts tomorrow/today/10 years ago?
You and I hollered for years that the US was past peak and in terminal decline and no amount of fracking could change that fact?

We were wrong.
It's OK.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: U.S. Becomes Net Oil Exporter

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 08 Dec 2018, 00:53:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')ake away the corn liquor, lighter fluid and camping gas and we are still past peak.


Face it. You're the last guy standing who believes this, basically flat-earther territory.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: U.S. Becomes Net Oil Exporter

Unread postby Pops » Sat 08 Dec 2018, 00:54:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'Y')eah, we export the crude to Canada where it is reworked, synthesized, upgraded and dilbertized only to be exported back to the USA still called crude to once again be refined and upgraded, all for our driving pleasure. Fun stuff. Likened to magic lol

Looks like about 12% of exports go to Canada
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_e ... mbbl_m.htm
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: U.S. Becomes Net Oil Exporter

Unread postby Pops » Sat 08 Dec 2018, 01:11:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')ake away the corn liquor, lighter fluid and camping gas and we are still past peak.


Yet we motor on

Image

But hey, I thought the milepost was worth a comment as it is one I never expected, even a year or two ago. With what's left of RU-OPEC announcing cutbacks, I doubt it will take long for the monthly average to catch up.
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Re: U.S. Becomes Net Oil Exporter

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 08 Dec 2018, 06:10:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')ake away the corn liquor, lighter fluid and camping gas and we are still past peak.


Yet we motor on

Image

But hey, I thought the milepost was worth a comment as it is one I never expected, even a year or two ago. With what's left of RU-OPEC announcing cutbacks, I doubt it will take long for the monthly average to catch up.


Could be, but classical supply/demand models would say OPEC+ cuts are a driver for increased USA production and hence higher net exports over time.

Heck if we want to be honest with ourselves before the North Sea fields were discovered and exploited the UK/Netherlands/Denmark and Norway were all oil importers. The the Brent field was exploited and the world shifted allowing them to all be oil exporters for about three decades. Now the UK is firmly back in oil importer category and getting close to net Natural Gas importer status as well. In the USA we did it the other way around, we were net exporters from the beginning however you want to date that up until the Korean War, then we gradually became a net importer with things getting really out of balance by 2001, overlapping the abundance of the Brent field from the 80's and 90's. Starting around 2001 with the declines in Brent and many other places prices crept upward and the USA started exploiting more domestic resources, infill drilling, reworking old fields by guys like ROCKMAN and his investors using more modern techniques on all kinds of old known fields. The long slow decline of the USA got slower and slower, then in 2008 we hit the price tipping point that ignited the fracking revolutions and the USA has been acting much like the UK acted in the 1980's. We now produce more petroleum (call it whatever you want, its chemicals that we sell as oil which is what counts) than we have ever produced before in the 150 years since we were scooping seep oil up for lubrication in the early 19th century.

It took me longer than it should have to admit that LTO from Fracking was a reprieve, at least for some time period. But facts are facts, exploiting LTO has fundamentally changed the production profile of the USA. Despite earlier predictions that we would run out of new drilling sites by 2017 that turned out not to be the case and drilling is still expanding in far more than just the Permian Basin of Texas. It doesn't get a lot of press like it did early on but the Bakkan is still drilling and so is the Utica in Ohio and other basins in other places.

Plugging your ears and going neener neener neener doesn't make the facts go away. The fundamental question now IMO is how long will the LTO last? We will eventually run out of new drilling sites in the USA be that 2025, 2045 or 2065. So will that be the world peak, or will super upgrader technology have improved to the point that exploiting the Orinoco super heavy oil will be economically viable and drop another trillion barrels of crude into the world market just in time the same way the LTO did for the USA/World starting in 2008?
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: U.S. Becomes Net Oil Exporter

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sat 08 Dec 2018, 06:30:33

At the end of last year, the most recent reliable stat I could find, the world consumed petroleum at a rate of 29.556/Gbbl/year. At that rate every 33 years we burn through 1 Trillion/bbl.

Its nice while it lasts, but is there a trillion barrels of light tight oil to consume? I like modern technology, I am using it to send this message. I just don't think it will continue indefinitly into the future.
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
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Re: U.S. Becomes Net Oil Exporter

Unread postby marmico » Sat 08 Dec 2018, 07:38:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e now produce more petroleum (call it whatever you want, its chemicals that we sell as oil which is what counts) than we have ever produced before in the 150 years since we were scooping seep oil up for lubrication in the early 19th century.


Fracking is the major reason why energy spending relative to income is the lowest in the last 150 years.

Image
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=36754

Get your priorities in order, old timer peak oilers. US health care spending at 18% of GDP in 2018 is 3x as much as energy spending at 6% of GDP.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/184 ... ince-1960/

All of the original 2004 peakoil.com farts are spending more and more on health care relative to energy.
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Re: U.S. Becomes Net Oil Exporter

Unread postby Pops » Sat 08 Dec 2018, 12:42:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'C')ould be, but classical supply/demand models would say OPEC+ cuts are a driver for increased USA production and hence higher net exports over time.

10-4, that's what I was trying to say. The negative export number in the headline was just the one week at the end of November but the 4-week average was still 1.5mm imports. Reversing the tanker offloading facilities into loading mode will continue as the brent/WTI differential rises — it was about 0 in 2016, $6-8 currently.

But yeah, the realization that we still have a few for-profit tricks up our sleeve put the butt-hurt to my Enviro-Luddite sensibilities. Frankly I was encouraged there for a minute we might not all lemming off into the abyss. But the current global appetite is more cars, cheaper fuel, and a retreat to our various bunkers in prep for the next war to end all wars.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: U.S. Becomes Net Oil Exporter

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 11 Dec 2018, 07:49:30

Of all the things I have seen posted here, even back when I was just a lurker, this is the most shocking.

I was born not awfully long after America became a net importer and before we hit the early 70's peak. I never in my lfetime expeced us to produce so mch oil that we could bcome a net exporter again.

I will clarify that at one time back n the early 80's I thought we mght go all in on synthetic oil from the Green River formation and stop importing. But even then I thought of it as energy independence, not surplus for sale to world markets.
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
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Re: U.S. Becomes Net Oil Exporter

Unread postby Pops » Tue 11 Dec 2018, 13:11:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'P')lugging your ears and going neener neener neener doesn't make the facts go away. The fundamental question now IMO is how long will the LTO last? We will eventually run out of new drilling sites in the USA be that 2025, 2045 or 2065. So will that be the world peak, or will super upgrader technology have improved to the point that exploiting the Orinoco super heavy oil will be economically viable and drop another trillion barrels of crude into the world market just in time the same way the LTO did for the USA/World starting in 2008?


It seems the questions are harder than in the oughts. Reading Hubbert—Campbell the question was how many more reservoirs were left to discover and how fast could they produce — PO being a measure of the rate of flow. They and others calculated the number and volume of reservoirs left was less than what had already been produced so maintaining, let alone increasing the rate of flow would be more and more difficult.

That calculation held for the heavy and tar because mining and washing sand is more akin to manufacturing, lots of investment in facilities and equipment. Still the question was of maintaining rate of flow.

Thing is, with LTO, the "reservoir" is one well. It extends only as far as the frackable area surrounding the hole. Rather than spending years and billions developing a newly discovered reservoir, or building a tar mine, an LTO "reservoir" is online in weeks flowing at the highest rate that it will ever produce.

Seems to me this is a bigger problem than we had before. Obviously we benefit through continued ability to warm the planet, but the hidden effect is the same as juicing GDP by borrowing huge sums to give ownership a tax cut. We get a short term dazzle that obscures long term problems.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: U.S. Becomes Net Oil Exporter

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 12 Dec 2018, 13:29:37

All true Pops. But good to remember that according to the EIA about 75% of US oil (equivalent) comes from wells producing 20 bopde. And while the hz shale wells that get all the headlines (along with their high INITIAL rates and declines those 75% of very low volume wells producing the majority of oil (e) also tend to have relatively low decline rates. Also their low actual lifting costs also explains why the dominate the producing well count. And while the flash in the pan shale wells decline away many will also join the big list of slowly declining US stripper wells.

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/wells/
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Re: U.S. Becomes Net Oil Exporter

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 12 Dec 2018, 13:55:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd while the flash in the pan shale wells decline away many will also join the big list of slowly declining US stripper wells.


a point I have been trying to make to those who want to focus on the high decline rates in the tight reservoir production. Companies went into the business not for the high IP's but for the low decline rates in the hyperbolic decline phase. The wells payout during the high decline rates and then they are largely cash flow machines during the low decline rates as OPEX is quite low. Get enough stripper wells with high enough EUR and it is not a bad story. A million wells producing at 10 bbls/day each is a pretty good overall production rate in anyones book.
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Re: U.S. Becomes Net Oil Exporter

Unread postby Pops » Wed 12 Dec 2018, 14:01:06

Thanks for the link rock.
Do we have an idea yet how long the tail to those fracked wells will be?
There are lots of strippers but they don't add up to much, do they?

This one is interesting showing (I believe) the surge in 100-3200 Mb/d production and no real change in strippers. Hard to tell at this resolution but the amount they produce actually seems to be falling slightly

Image
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: U.S. Becomes Net Oil Exporter

Unread postby noobtube » Wed 12 Dec 2018, 16:48:03

The United States consumed 18.77 M BBLs of oil a day in 1977.
The United States consumed 19.88 M BBLs of oil a day in 2017.

Maximum consumption rate of OIL in the United States was in 2005 at 20.8 M BBLs of oil a day.

https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_oil_consumption
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/ind ... ge=oil_use
https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=33&t=6

The United States literally PEAKed in 2005 in oil consumption.
The data is not hard to find.

Yet, someone is posting on a peak oil website that the United States is a net EXPORTER of oil.

See, this is why I believe Americans have lost their collective minds.
Flat-earthers, Bitcoin Zealots, Preppers/Survivalists, Right Wing crazies... the United States is psychotic.
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Re: U.S. Becomes Net Oil Exporter

Unread postby GHung » Wed 12 Dec 2018, 18:19:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('noobtube', '.')......

Yet, someone is posting on a peak oil website that the United States is a net EXPORTER of oil.

See, this is why I believe Americans have lost their collective minds.
Flat-earthers, Bitcoin Zealots, Preppers/Survivalists, Right Wing crazies... the United States is psychotic.


You give Americans too much credit. Your whole species is psychotic, and no one group has a monopoly on insanity. As for preppers/survivalists, they just acknowledge that fact and act on it.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
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Re: U.S. Becomes Net Oil Exporter

Unread postby Pops » Wed 12 Dec 2018, 18:22:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('noobtube', 'T')he United States literally PEAKed in 2005 in oil consumption.
...
Yet, someone is posting on a peak oil website that the United States is a net EXPORTER of oil.

Not sure but you seem to be confused about the definition of net exports, it has nothing to do with consumption, necessarily. It's just imports minus exports
Here is a link with a simple chart
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1072840179336036352
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Re: U.S. Becomes Net Oil Exporter

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 13 Dec 2018, 18:30:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('noobtube', '
')
The United States literally PEAKed in 2005 in oil consumption.
The data is not hard to find.

Yet, someone is posting on a peak oil website that the United States is a net EXPORTER of oil.

See, this is why I believe Americans have lost their collective minds.
Flat-earthers, Bitcoin Zealots, Preppers/Survivalists, Right Wing crazies... the United States is psychotic.

And yet, you talk just like the mindless people you decry.

Flat earthers ignore data, just like you ignore data. How sane is that?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: U.S. Becomes Net Oil Exporter

Unread postby noobtube » Thu 13 Dec 2018, 19:02:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('noobtube', '
')
The United States literally PEAKed in 2005 in oil consumption.
The data is not hard to find.

Yet, someone is posting on a peak oil website that the United States is a net EXPORTER of oil.

See, this is why I believe Americans have lost their collective minds.
Flat-earthers, Bitcoin Zealots, Preppers/Survivalists, Right Wing crazies... the United States is psychotic.

And yet, you talk just like the mindless people you decry.

Flat earthers ignore data, just like you ignore data. How sane is that?


Are you insane? Wait, you are probably an American psychotic who ignores the numbers when they don't suit your reality.

I posted 3 links. I posted the numbers. I posted the years. You didn't dispute any of that or post any numbers of your own.

Per capita consumption of oil in the United States peaked in 1978. That was 40 years ago!!!

The last 10 years have not looked good for the American idiot's consumption of oil. It is what you call rolling over the top. I have data all day to back up this fact.

It is very gradual but very clear... especially since 2005.

But, according to typical American losers, that doesn't matter. It is happy days forever and the oil will always flow to the SUV, to stuff Big Macs in your face, at your cookie-cutter tract home, and office drone job.

Bitcoin will save us. Wait, green energy will. No homosexuals will. No MeToo. No Trump. No Capitalism. No Big Business. No Technology. And on and on.

Americans love to blame "others" for the problems Americans themselves have created. I guess you are just another example of that.
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