[Revi]

How about this?

https://srsroccoreport.com/has-peak-die ... look-good/

[KaiserJeep]

If I understand the situation correctly, the US supply of conventional oil has peaked some months ago, and the present demand is being filled with a combination of heavy oils (tar sands, etc) and lighter oils (condensates, etc.) from fracking.

Can the deficit of conventional oil be replaced by blending the heavy and light components? Can this mix be used to make diesel and home heating fuels, even if it costs more to do that than by conventional petroleum?

Just trying to understand the US perspective on a diesel shortage that is primarily outside the US today. That diesel costs more than gasoline in the US today will soon increase the cost of everything transported by truck or rail. Home heating oil that is more expensive will bite me personally. My Nantucket home uses oil and natural gas is not available on the island - but LPG is available and some use it for heat.

So far, it seems more like an incovenience for refineries than a genuine hydrocarbon production shortfall. But maybe I am missing something.

[onlooker]

The way I see it, the heavy oil and the light one from Shale/fracking, was NOT used extensively before because the EROEI is not good. Lending has been a big part of sustaining this Shale fracking bubble. But, the ecoomics and energy profile going forward is simply is not going to allow Modern Civilization to continue humming along like before. The Peak Oil dynamic is very much imposing itself as Net Energy is dwindling.

[GHung]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'I')f I understand the situation correctly, the US supply of conventional oil has peaked some months ago, and the present demand is being filled with a combination of heavy oils (tar sands, etc) and lighter oils (condensates, etc.) from fracking.

Can the deficit of conventional oil be replaced by blending the heavy and light components? Can this mix be used to make diesel and home heating fuels, even if it costs more to do that than by conventional petroleum?

Just trying to understand the US perspective on a diesel shortage that is primarily outside the US today. That diesel costs more than gasoline in the US today will soon increase the cost of everything transported by truck or rail. Home heating oil that is more expensive will bite me personally. My Nantucket home uses oil and natural gas is not available on the island - but LPG is available and some use it for heat.

So far, it seems more like an incovenience for refineries than a genuine hydrocarbon production shortfall. But maybe I am missing something.

[KaiserJeep]

I understand what you said, but the economic side of your argument is subject to being refuted by higher retail prices for such blended hydrocarbon fuels. There is a huge personal difference for me, actually. I need available gasoline to buy groceries and for other personal transport. I need heating oil for both residential heating and domestic hot water in the Nantucket home. I need natural gas for residential heat and hot water and cooking fuel in California and probably also in the Wisconsin residence that will replace that.

So I obsessively research everything and try to make contingency plans for likely shortage scenarios. Where there are available green energy alternatives, I install those. I have solar PV in California and a plan to add wind turbine(s) to the Nantucket residence.

So even in the face of a generalized economic malaise from more expensive hydrocarbon fuels, I wish to eat, shop, and not suffer major disruptions to lifestyle. But so far, I'm not seeing any such disruptions coming. Instead what I am seeing is a looming increase in the cost of living. I have long been dealing with that on a routine basis.

[Revi]

Here in Maine the price of regular gasoline is at $2.28 and the price of regular diesel is $3.32. So it's over a dollar more. The price of heating oil is around $3.00, so it's going to be a harder winter for some people. I can't remember a time when diesel was more than a dollar more than gas.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'H')ere in Maine the price of regular gasoline is at $2.28 and the price of regular diesel is $3.32. So it's over a dollar more. The price of heating oil is around $3.00, so it's going to be a harder winter for some people. I can't remember a time when diesel was more than a dollar more than gas.

[KaiserJeep]

Well, I have been living in California since Jenuary 1986. I routinely pay $3.799 for a gallon of regular, and can recall when it was $5.659 in the past - at the local 76 station on the corner.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he way I see it, the heavy oil and the light one from Shale/fracking, was NOT used extensively before because the EROEI is not good.

[ROCKMAN]

T - Is one of us misunderstanding what Revi posted: "I can't remember a time when diesel was more than a dollar more than gas." Your chart seems to confirm his post. Or am I confused?

[marmico]

Gasoline refining margins have collapsed and distillate (diesel) refining margins are above average. Aggregate the change in margins and the retail diesel-gasoline spread widens.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=37612

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'H')ow about this?

[Pops]

The decline in fuel oil use is probably in large part switching from oil to nat gas power generation.
Ironically, that's where fracking took off initially, wasn't it?
So the decline in fuel oil IS due to fracking!
LOL

[MD]

Two bucks a gallon here in Florida. I've given up crystal ball gazing. No idea what comes next. I'll just take each day as it comes, expecting each to be about like the last, until it isn't.

[onlooker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he way I see it, the heavy oil and the light one from Shale/fracking, was NOT used extensively before because the EROEI is not good.

[Pops]

This is just memory but seems way back here we were talking about how thr refiners were retooling to take heavier crudes from CA, MX, Venezuela, because light sweet was beginning to dwindle

[onlooker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'T')his is just memory but seems way back here we were talking about how thr refiners were retooling to take heavier crudes from CA, MX, Venezuela, because light sweet was beginning to dwindle

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'T') - Is one of us misunderstanding what Revi posted: "I can't remember a time when diesel was more than a dollar more than gas." Your chart seems to confirm his post. Or am I confused?

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he way I see it, the heavy oil and the light one from Shale/fracking, was NOT used extensively before because the EROEI is not good.

[onlooker]

Well if you look at this link, you can see that production in Athabaska 'tar' sands, really took off in the period 2005-2012
2005 = 760,000 bpd
2012= 1.8 million bpd
So again, I am saying production really took off not started

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Athabasca_oil_sands