[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '.')...the random stuff you post and claim....

[EdwinSm]

By itself Tuesday's fall in stock markets does not signify much, but behind the scenes there seems to be growing fear.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BBC', 'A')nalysts said the trigger for Tuesday's falls appeared to be concerns about the "yield curve", which measures the difference between the interest rates paid on short-term and long-term US bonds.

The gap has narrowed in recent months, as investors demand higher rates of return on short-term debt in anticipation of inflation and rate rises.

At the same time, they are accepting relatively lower rates on long-term debt, in anticipation of limited inflation and slower economic growth over the next decade.

The difference between the rates on three-year and five-year debt disappeared on Monday.

The move fuelled concerns on Tuesday that the same might happen to the gap between two-year and 10-year bonds - a more significant indicator.

Historically, when short-term rates rise above longer rates, it signals a recession may be on the horizon.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '.')...the random stuff you post and claim....

[asg70]

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')Yes. I did mess up.

[copious.abundance]

As to demonstrate just how dead this forum is ... if I had started this thread 5 years ago, it would already have been 10 pages and a dozen people would have said, "OMG copious is getting bearish! Head for the hills!" Now it's barely 2 pages and the biggest thing going on in it are 2 people arguing with each other over something not even having much to do with the original topic.

[copious.abundance]

Long article but lots of interesting stuff.

Here's Why Stocks Could Be Headed A Lot Lower From Here
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')...]

The S&P 500’s P/E ratio is currently at about 19.94, which is well below its recent high of roughly 24, but is still much higher than its historical median 14.73. Perhaps even more telling, the Schiller P/E ratio is currently at 28.20, just starting to come off its second highest level ever of about 33.5, and still far higher than the median 15.69.



So, let’s break this down. For the S&P 500, just to get back to its historic median, the Schiller P/E would need to decline by about 46%. For the S&P 500’s overall P/E ratio to get back to its median range it would have to decline by an additional 26%.

We are essentially talking about the S&P 500 having to decline by another 26 – 46% from current levels so that these valuation metrics could return to their historical averages. Another factor to consider is that in a bear market valuations don’t typically decline to their historic average, they overshoot to the downside, and sometimes by a lot.

[...]

[copious.abundance]

- The 1-year/7-year yield curve is inverted.
- So is the 6-month/5-year

https://www.cnbc.com/us-treasurys/

[copious.abundance]

^
And an article on that:

January Yield Curve Update: Inching Closer
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')img]https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2019/1/1/49663329-15463622900310075.png[/img]



Too long? Didn't read? Here's some handy bullets:

-- The trend in yield curve spreads continues to be negative.
-- The changes in the spread are being driven by the long end, the rates least in the Fed's control.
-- Models based around the yield curve are starting to predict recessions coming sooner rather than later. The earliest seems to be the end of 2019.
-- The price of consumer and corporate risk is rising.

[Pops]

Not rising very fast tho, which seems to be the sign.
Who can even guess what might be coming next?
What crazy crap trump is gonna tweet during executive time,
whanna see those numbers really go haywire?
Just wait until China stops buying treasuries.

In other depressing (-depression) news, the TPP just went into effect.
Thought trump stopped that?
Nope, he just stopped the US from benefiting. The other countries all signed on Sunday and now they get favored treatment such as lowered tariffs on beef into Japan—one of the largest markets for US exports.

great again

.

[Cog]

Don't give up Pops. Maybe Hillary will run in 2020 so you can vote for her again.

[copious.abundance]

Some pretty clear signs the housing market is starting to turn.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.99 million in December
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')otal existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, decreased 6.4 percent from November to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.99 million in December. Sales are now down 10.3 percent from a year ago (5.56 million in December 2017).
...
Total housing inventory at the end of December decreased to 1.55 million, down from 1.74 million existing homes available for sale in November, but represents an increase from 1.46 million a year ago. Unsold inventory is at a 3.7-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 3.9 last month and up from 3.2 months a year ago.

[marmico]

The Conference Board LEI did not turn down in December 2018.

https://www.conference-board.org/pdf_fr ... 202019.pdf

The time....has not arrived.

[GHung]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('marmico', 'T')he Conference Board LEI did not turn down in December 2018. .......

[rockdoc123]

and in that same report they state:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '�')��While the effects of the government shutdown are not yet reflected here, the LEI suggests
that the economy could decelerate towards 2 percent growth by the end of 2019.”

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GHung', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('marmico', 'T')he Conference Board LEI did not turn down in December 2018. .......

[GHung]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', ' ')......
Let's pretend that 0.1% is a gigantic number, and that in casual conversation, it's impossible for someone talking in round numbers, that 0.1% change means roughly flat, or unchanged.

If you want to pick at nits, fine. But if someone who disagreed with you called you a liar for picking at such nits on ANY chart, I'm 99% sure you wouldn't like it one bit. *** ........

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GHung', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', ' ')......
Let's pretend that 0.1% is a gigantic number, and that in casual conversation, it's impossible for someone talking in round numbers, that 0.1% change means roughly flat, or unchanged.

If you want to pick at nits, fine. But if someone who disagreed with you called you a liar for picking at such nits on ANY chart, I'm 99% sure you wouldn't like it one bit. *** ........

[copious.abundance]

The Unemployment Rate May Soon Signal A Recession: Update - February 1, 2018
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '-')- For what is considered to be a lagging indicator of the economy, the unemployment rate provides surprisingly good signals for the beginning and end of recessions.

-- This model, backtested to 1948, reliably provided recession signals.

-- The model, updated with the January 2019 rate of 4.0%, does not signal a recession.

-- However, if the unemployment rate should rise to 4.1% in the coming months the model would then signal recession.