[Cog]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'W')hat idiot would purchase shares in collapsing company?

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ow, analysts at Wood Mackenzie have conducted their own study of Saudi Aramco, and came up with a completely different (and much lower) figure. WoodMac puts Aramco’s true value closer to $400 billion, eighty percent less than the Saudi estimate, and it arrived at the figure by considering future demand and the anticipated average price of oil (on which profits will depend), as well as Saudi Aramco’s status as a state-run company.
Cooking The Books? Saudi Aramco Could Be Overvalued By 500%

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'W')hat idiot would purchase shares in collapsing company?

[Plantagenet]

WSJ reports today that Saudi Aramco is abandoning the idea of issuing bonds to pay for the planned purchase of SABIC because, once again, they are unwilling to do the disclosures concerning Aramco's financial state and oil reserves that would be required in order for Saudi Aramco to issue bonds on the open market.

This is the exact same concern that helped torpedo the IPO----.

aramco-abandons-plan-for-massive-corporate-bond-sales-to-fund-sabic-deal

Now Saudi Aramco is stalled on the IPO, and has cancelled the bond sale, but they still want to raise a pot of money for Prince Muhammad. But according to the WSJ, there is also a new concern that Prince Muhammad's nasty habit of imprisoning and torturing and murdering his critics, as demonstrated in the Kashoggi case and other cases, might cause people to hesitate before buying bonds or anything else that he is involved with.

Cheers!

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'b')ut I guess is way past peak and all this pissing around with non disclosure of reserves, dire need for capital, etc etc just about proves it.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ould YOU (anyone ?) invest money in a venture where the main reason for that investment,the asset that generates profit, is not disclosed ?

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here has [sic] been numerous interviews with the oil minister as well as with the CEO of Aramco as well as comments from investment bankers that the intended reason for purchasing SABIC was to accomplish the goal ARAMCO has always stated as having...increase it's downstream component so that it becomes more like the integrated company it aspires to be which would be not so heavily weighted to the upstream component as they are now.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ctually, the reason Aramco is planning to purchase SABIC is the same reason Aramco had for the doing the much-delayed IPO---the royal family wants money. When it became clear the IPO wasn't happening any time soon they switched to the plan to buy SABIC.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')quot;leveraged buyout" huh?

They really are broke

[Plantagenet]

Saudi Aramco couldn't get the IPO done so they delayed the IPO and shifted to buying SABIC.

Now they can't get bonds issued to buy SABIC, so they are delaying the SABIC purchase which is delaying the IPO still further.

On top of that Prince Muhammad has shown he is a murderous thug...definitely not the ideal person to be doing business with.

For three years now we've seen failure after failure on multiple plans to advance the IPO. Now we've got another ooopsies! and another change of plan from ARAMCO. Its enough to make a rational person skeptical about the whole IPO deal

saudi-aramco-sabic-deal-more-fodder-for-ipo-skepticism

Cheers!

[rockdoc123]

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/09/saudi-arabias-massive-oil-reserves-grow-by-2point2-billion-barrels.html

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')audi Arabia's massive oil and gas reserves are even bigger than previously reported, according to an outside assessment commissioned by the kingdom.
The independent audit not only revised Saudi reserves higher, but may help put to rest skepticism over the nation's oil and gas wealth, which has persisted in some corners of the market for years. It also shows national oil giant Saudi Aramco is taking strides towards transparency as it continues to consider a stock market debut.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '[')url]https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/09/saudi-arabias-massive-oil-reserves-grow-by-2point2-billion-barrels.html[/url]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')audi Arabia's massive oil and gas reserves are even bigger than previously reported, according to an outside assessment commissioned by the kingdom.

[rockdoc123]

What interests me is that the Reserves noted by D&M will likely be Proven Reserves as that is what gets normally reported. I wonder what is left of Probable and Possible Reserves. My guess is after all the mega projects most of the Possible have been converted so it should be largely only Probable left. At one time SA was reporting fairly large 2P but a lot of that will have been converted to P1 by now. Maybe there is some left, maybe not. Time will tell. But at least the D&M statement gets past the "Saudis are lying about their reserves" mantra that Pstarr and others have been spewing for the last decade or so.

[Cog]

If those are proven and economically recoverable reserves, then at current rates of production, then SA has oil for the next 80 years.

[StarvingLion]

Aramco IPO means the End of Aramco and the runaway Saudi Welfare State.

Saudi cannot finance oil expansion because decline rates at NorthCentral Ghawar will increase massively long before the new infrastructure is in place.

They are can kicking awaiting Ghawarian 2022 decline increase ....a steel bolt to the temple.

And then its Venezuela time.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')audi cannot finance oil expansion because decline rates at NorthCentral Ghawar will increase massively long before the new infrastructure is in place.

[Cog]

We are all going to be dead and buried before SA runs out of oil at current rates of production.

[Plantagenet]

The Saudis have changed course again. Four years ago Prince Muhammad said Saudi Aramco shares would be sold in an IPO, and the money would be used to modernize Saudi Arabia and shift away from and to a "modern" economy.

Then the Saudis said the IPO would be delayed.

Then they said said the IPO would be delayed even longer while Saudi Aramco bought a chemical company.

Then they said the IPO wold be delayed even longer while Saudi Aramco issued bonds.

Now Prince Muhammad is keeping a low profile and Saudi Aramco just announced they are actually be EXPANDING its activity in the oil biz by going overseas and looking for new oil resources to buy and produce.

saudi-aramco-makes-existential-bet-oil


Don't be surprised if Saudi Aramco buys some land and starts fracking in Texas.

Cheers!

[rockdoc123]

This from an interview with Amin Nasser, CEO and President of Saudi Aramco at the WEF in Davos a few weeks ago:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')ust a few weeks ago, Aramco announced the results of an audit by DeGolyer & MacNaughton, the leading independent expert on the oil industry, which showed Aramco is sitting on a treasure trove of 263.1 billion barrels of oil within its concession area, higher than previous estimates. That was one of the essential requirements for the IPO.
“Everything that is required for listing is there. If the government decided, it could be done in no time,” he said. So why had it not happened?
Basically, Nasser explained, because an alternative strategic play came into view. Aramco decided there were more pressing priorities, especially a tie-up with SABIC, the Kingdom’s petrochemicals and industrial giant.
“We came to the government and said that our desire is to be the leading petrochemical company globally. We can do that organically or inorganically. We are always looking for opportunities in this field and we have huge investments in petrochem with Dow Chemical and Sumitomo. However, if you want to be the leader, you need an acquisition, a major acquisition. You need a platform, a good platform so you can go global, especially with our decision to have 2 million to 3 million barrels of oil going to petrochemical.
“So we approached the Public Investment Fund (Saudi Arabia’s ambitious sovereign wealth fund) to see if it was interested in selling their shares in SABIC, and they were interested. We have been in discussions with them and we went back to the government and said … based on our governance requirements and regulations, you cannot list Aramco while we are going through a major acquisition. It doesn’t work. That process needs to take its course, and the government said that’s fine. Because also you cannot list and then come in three or four months later and say you’re going to acquire a company. That would have to be in the IPO prospectus.
We need to close a share-purchase agreement and we’re in discussions now with PIF about that. When we reach an agreement we have to go and seek regulatory and antitrust approval. That will take almost until the end of the year 2019, or maybe a little bit more; we don’t know because you need approval from a lot of countries where SABIC has major operations. SABIC is not a small company, it’s a huge company, so you need a lot of approvals from lots of countries,” he said.
“After you finish that you need a minimum of one year to reflect the purchase in your balance sheet. It has to be consolidated and show what is the impact on our balance sheet — where is the integration, where is the value, because the investors will want to see … After that you can go to the market,” he said.
“It’s going to happen. There is no doubt the commitment is there, and it was also further confirmed by the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and by the Minister of Energy Khalid Al-Falih. Both of them say the commitment for the IPO is there,” he insisted.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.').. an interview with Amin Nasser, CEO and President of Saudi Aramco at the WEF in Davos a few weeks ago:
“Everything that is required for listing is there. If the government decided, it could be done in no time,” he said. So why had it not happened?
Basically, Nasser explained, because an alternative strategic play came into view. Aramco decided there were more pressing priorities