[ROCKMAN]

And just a reminder: about 98% of everyone in the US oil patch opposes the building of this pipeline as well as all the other projects that enable the increase in the amount of Canadian oil imported into the USA. That also includes 100's of thousands of private land owners.

[jawagord]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'J')aw - All true...if it gets built. I'll explain again how big pipeline projects typically get built. The construction time and payout period tend to be too long for companies to gamble. So they first solicit "subscribers": companies that commit to shipping a fixed amount of oil thru the pipeline for X amount of years at $Y/bbl. This protects the pipeline builder from market volatility. There will be a fixed period of time for subscriptions to be taken. If not enough subscriptions are made in that time period any subscription commitments are voided.

Last time I checked there was a bit of excess pipeline capacity to import Canadian oil. This leaves the new pipeline builders two problems. First, it will have to charge a competitive transport fee. IOW a smaller profit margin the other pipelines that may have already recovered 100% of their costs. Second, even if a lower fee is offered an oil owner might still be bound by its original subscription commitment. Also any existing subscription commitments for the new line are not enforceable until every required permit is in place. Also any lawsuit that halts construction can cause the clock to run out on existing subscriptions. TransCanada kept extending the original subscription period years ago as delays kept extending the border crossing permit. Eventually it cancelled the subscription period.

[ROCKMAN]

Jaw - Very good: I had not seen news of the 500,000 bopd commitment. But agan the ovewhelming majority of US oil producers would not like to see this line built. Just as they wish the other import lines didn't exist.

[jawagord]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'J')aw - Very good: I had not seen news of the 500,000 bopd commitment. But agan the ovewhelming majority of US oil producers would not like to see this line built. Just as they wish the other import lines didn't exist.

[ROCKMAN]

A huge develop regarding the futures prices of oil sands exports that you’ll never hear about from our MSM. Too many facts for the public to understand. LOL From

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/enbri ... 3-article/

(Bloomberg) -- Enbridge Inc.’s decision to implement and then scrap new rules governing Canada’s biggest export pipeline system sent crude prices on a record roller coaster move this week, earning the pipeline operator both friends and enemies. BP Plc filed a complaint this week with Canada’s National Energy Board saying Enbridge used an “unreasonable exercise of discretion” when it announced and then, 11 days later, canceled new rules governing the amount of oil that shippers were allowed to send through its Mainline system.

Heavy Western Canadian Select crude prices surged by a record $12.20 a barrel relative to U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate futures Monday after Enbridge scrapped the rule, which was designed to stop shippers from claiming more space than they needed on the pipeline. Space on the system, the largest link between Alberta’s oil sands and U.S. refineries, has been increasingly rationed, as crude production overwhelmed capacity. Prices had sunk $8.75 a barrel relative to WTI in the days after the new rules were announced on May 24. Suncore Energy Inc. and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd, two of Canada’s biggest oil sands producers, welcomed Enbridge’s reversal, saying the existing rules better ensure producers receive a fairer price for their oil.

A surge of new supply out of Canada’s oil sands this year strained limited pipeline capacity, prompting operators such as Enbridge and Kinder Morgan Inc. to increase the rationing of space on export lines. Enbridge said it was concerned that shippers may be continuing to “inflate” the amount of oil they nominate to ship through the lines each month as they vie for space, according to the May 24 letter announcing the new rule. Enbridge’s new system granted oil shippers allowances for the amount of crude they could send on the Mainline based on a 12-month rolling average, plus 15 percent for heavy crude and 40 percent for light crude. Shippers wishing to send more than their allotted amount would need to show physical proof that they had the extra oil. The company said it changed its mind after discussions with shippers.

The drop in Canadian crude prices relative to futures, known as the differential, after the changes were first announced was an “unintended consequence” of Enbridge’s proposal, Canadian Natural Vice Chair Steve Laut said in an interview in Calgary. The beneficiaries would have been refiners at the end of the pipeline. “Now we’ve got differentials where they should have been all along,” he said. “Enbridge was trying to take some of th dysfunction out of the nomination, apportionment side of the business. I’ve got to give them credit for trying to do that.”Western Canadian Select trades at a discount to WTI, in part, because it must be transported thousands of miles to U.S. refineries by pipeline or rail. The discount, which narrowed to $13.80 a barrel from $26 on Monday, has since widened to $17.80 a barrel, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

[Tanada]

In light of ROCKMAN's post above it seems this would be an opportune time for the northern extension of the Keystone XL to get built. It seems that production has caught up to and exceeded current capacity, which is normally a strong signal for more capacity to be constructed.

[ROCKMAN]

T - Perhaps. Though proven in the past to not be infallible, the IEA sees the same potential possibility:

"Canada will continue to pump out more barrels from the oilsands over the next few years, but delays to pipeline approvals and uncertainty over the provision of more export capacity is undermining the next wave of development, according to the International Energy Agency. In its annual five-year oil forecast published Monday, the IEA warned that Canadian oil pipeline constraints are part of a wider capacity crisis brewing across North America.

“Colossal growth in North American supply from 2018 to 2023 raises the crucial question of whether there is enough pipeline capacity to transport and sell all of that oil,” the Paris-based agency said in a report. “If sufficient capacity is not built, the increase in production we foresee could be at risk, with serious implications for global markets.” Despite the pipeline shortages, Canada will be among the countries leading growth in oil output over the next few years, taking its overall production to 5.6 million barrels per day by 2023, compared to 4.8 million bpd this year.

But the surge would come at a time of limited export options. “During 2018-19, West Texas and West Canada are likely to face shortages in midstream capacity brought about by a rapid production increase,” the IEA said. “The situation will be much more severe in Canada than West Texas as legal delays mean capacity is unlikely to increase before the end of 2019.”

And this despite the North Dakota Pipe Line substituting for a good portion of the economic justification of the KXL pipeline.

[GHung]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Judge blocks Keystone XL pipeline (again)

A federal judge blocked the controversial Keystone XL oil pipeline Thursday, saying the Trump administration’s justification for approving it last year was incomplete.

In a major victory for environmentalists and indigenous rights groups, Judge Brian Morris of the District Court for the District of Montana overturned President Trump’s permit for the Canada-to-Texas pipeline, which the president signed shortly after taking office last year.

Morris’s ruling repeatedly faulted the Trump administration for reversing former President Obama’s 2015 denial of the pipeline permit without proper explanation. He said the State Department “simply discarded” climate change concerns related to the project.

The decision once again throws into doubt the future of the 1,179-mile Keystone XL, which for much of the decade since its proposal by TransCanada Corp. has been a lightning rod in national energy policy.

The Trump administration had tried to argue that federal courts didn’t even have the right to review Trump’s approval, saying that it extended from his constitutional authority over border crossings. The court rejected that argument. .......
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-envir ... l-pipeline

[Cog]

Trump should ignore the ruling and proceed. Let this one judge try to enforce the ban.

I'm not the least bit surprised this judge is a climate change fanatic appointed by President Obama.

[GHung]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'T')rump should ignore the ruling and proceed. Let this one judge try to enforce the ban.

I'm not the least bit surprised this judge is a climate change fanatic appointed by President Obama.

[ROCKMAN]

Ghung – I wonder why they consider this to be any sort of victory for environmentalists. The same volume of oil will continue being exported from Canada and transit those same states. Except it will do so by rail and tanker truck. Both methods which have been repeated proven to be more detrimental to the environment…as well as human life. As far benefiting indigenous people: again how so? The judge is only blocking the section of the pipeline crossing the border. As far as building other sections of the pipeline it has no effect. As well as other pipelines built to carry much of the KXL oil. That was clearly proven by building a new pipeline across the Dakotas. A pipeline that would not have been built had the northern section of the KXL been built. An unnecessary pipeline built adjacent to tribal lands. Don’t you remember that?

Cog - Why defy the judge's order when he can simply have HIS govt engineers write a report that satisfies the judge's order. It was always just going to be boiler plate anyway. This is just a delaying action: won't change the final outcome IMHO.

[Cog]

Judges are supposed to make rulings according to the law not their preferences or desired social outcomes. This judge is just a tool for climate change fanatics. The executive deals with borders and the judge is out of his lane. I would ignore the ruling and let the judge try to enforce it. There is no constitutional issue at play here. Just another liberal judge trying to interfere with the executive branch.

[GHung]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'J')udges are supposed to make rulings according to the law not their preferences or desired social outcomes. This judge is just a tool for climate change fanatics. The executive deals with borders and the judge is out of his lane. I would ignore the ruling and let the judge try to enforce it. There is no constitutional issue at play here. Just another liberal judge trying to interfere with the executive branch.

[Cog]

Ghung

What environment law is in play here? I've never heard of a climate change law. Citation please. If there is some climate change law in place, that the president must obey, then you should have no problem providing me the Congressional bill number or statute number.

Show me in "environmental law" where climate change theory interferes with a president's executive authority over borders. Cite the appropriate statute or law that is in play here. While you are at it cite the law or statute where by the president is acting outside the Constitution or his authority contained within. I will wait patiently.

I know you believe that judges should rule based on feelings or some social justice construct, but that isn't really what their constitutional role is in America.

[GHung]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'G')hung

What environment law is in play here? I've never heard of a climate change law. Citation please. If there is some climate change law in place, that the president must obey, then you should have no problem providing me the Congressional bill number or statute number.

Show me in "environmental law" where climate change theory interferes with a president's executive authority over borders. Cite the appropriate statute or law that is in play here. While you are at it cite the law or statute where by the president is acting outside the Constitution or his authority contained within. I will wait patiently.

I know you believe that judges should rule based on feelings or some social justice construct, but that isn't really what their constitutional role is in America.

[Cog]

So there is no climate change law? Maybe you should call up the judge and tell him that. LOL

Since you and the judge apparently believe such a law exists and the president is bound by it.

[GHung]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'S')o there is no climate change law? Maybe you should call up the judge and tell him that. LOL

Since you and the judge apparently believe such a law exists and the president is bound by it.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]What the attack on Saudi oil facilities could mean for Canada's oilpatch and Keystone XL

The secure supply of Canadian oil to the United States could recapture the attention of American decision-makers following the recent attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities, experts say.

Industry and government leaders around the world are still assessing the impact of Saturday's drone strikes on the state-owned Saudi Aramco facilities.

The attack disrupted about five per cent of global crude supplies, sending oil prices soaring.

The news also saw Canadian energy stocks surge by double digits during Monday's trading amid concerns the impact on oil markets could last months.

Canadian crude — overshadowed by soaring U.S. shale oil production in recent years — could receive greater focus with renewed discussion about secure energy supplies, said Rory Johnston, a commodity economist at Scotiabank.

"Historically, we've seen more of the sentiment toward the Canadian oil sector as being couched in terms of oil security, which as a concept has kind of fallen by the wayside," Johnston said.

"This will likely raise that energy security narrative back to the forefront of public discussion, which all else equal, should benefit the Canadian oilpatch as a source of secure supply — politically secure and right next door to the United States."

While Canadian pipeline constraints make it difficult for oil companies to get more Alberta oil to market currently, Johnston said, a shift in the conversation could fuel further political pressure to build projects like Keystone XL, which has struggled in the face of legal, environmental and political challenges in the U.S.

"It wouldn't necessarily accelerate the timeline of these types of projects being built," he said.

"I think what this does is just lessens the risk that we're going to see further delays."
Alberta 'the most secure major source of energy': Kenney

Aberta Premier Jason Kenney, who was in New York on Monday to meet with institutional investors, also emphasized the message that Alberta is "the most secure major source of energy" in the world.

"The strike on Saudi refineries should be a wake-up call," he posted to social media.

Kenney was also reported Monday to be looking at easing mandatory oil production cuts in Alberta following those attacks.

American interest in secure supplies of oil from Canada was particularly strong after the terror attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, said Christopher Sands, an expert on energy policy at Johns Hopkins University in Washington, D.C.

That changed during the Obama administration, he said, with greater emphasis on the environment.

Sands said the situation with Saudi Arabia may have Americans looking at Alberta, but it could underscore for some lawmakers how important it is Canada build on its own pipeline capacity and ensure security of its oil.

"You don't have enough capacity, and this makes us think you need redundant capacity because what if something goes wrong?" said Sands, adding that ensuring the security of existing energy infrastructure is key.

Tim McMillan, president of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, said the current situation in Saudi Arabia may provide more incentive to expedite projects like Keystone XL and Enbridge's Line 3, which would carry more oil from Alberta to the U.S.

But he added that even with President Donald Trump "pushing these projects, it has been a challenge with the U.S. court system and some of the other delay tactics that opponents are using."

Though McMillan said he's confident those projects will be built, he added he was "less confident" that the U.S. legal system will move any faster.

"But why on earth is Canada so beholden to the United States when we have the world's second-largest coastlines, where we have a close connection to the growing markets in Asia?" he added.

While Canadian producers still face challenges in getting oil to market, whether by pipeline or by rail, Ian Nieboer, managing director at RS Energy Group, said they should benefit from higher oil prices.

The question everyone is trying to answer, he said, is how long will the situation last.

"The outage itself and its duration is probably the first and most pronounced fundamental impact," he said.

"The longer term and more structural piece is, is there some sort of risk premium [on oil prices] that maybe enters the market as you think about the politics of the Middle East and now really the circumstances that led to this weekend's attack," Nieboer said.

As for gasoline prices, Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, says it likely means higher gasoline prices in Canada as early as Wednesday. He said it's unclear how long it's going to last.

"We have no idea … where this thing is going to go because it's completely out of anyone's control," McKnight said.

"And the Saudis are going to keep things kind of close to the vest because they don't want to really upset the market completely. But the facts are facts. Five per cent of crude supply goes off the market, and prices have to go up."

[jawagord]

Some encouraging news from Transcanada on KXL construction. I’m wondering if the focus on building a short cross boarder section is to get it done before January 2021, preventing a Presidential veto should a Democrat get elected president?

TC Energy Corp. is planning to ramp up activity on Keystone XL pipeline construction next month and commence building the two-kilometre-long U.S.-Canada border segment in April.

It has drawn opposition from people who fear it will harm the environment. U.S. President Donald Trump issued a federal permit for the expansion project in 2017, after it was rejected by the Obama administration.

TC Energy’s aggressive timeline for the pipeline was included in a status report filed by the company with the District Court of Montana on Tuesday. But, the company said, work hinges on two licences – a right-of-way grant and a temporary use permit from the U.S. Bureau of Land Management.

Ultimately, TC Energy wants to start building pumping stations along the entire route in June, and pipeline segments in Montana and South Dakota in August.

To support that goal, the Calgary-based company plans to start mobilizing heavy construction equipment to planned worker camps and pipeline storage yards in Montana, South Dakota and Nebraska in February, and begin felling trees in South Dakota.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/busines ... /#comments

[ROCKMAN]

I wonder if the bigger factor in the border crossing is not the permit process itself but competition from the already expanded capacity of a number of border crossing pipelines (approved by President Obama's administration and ignored by the MSM for the most part) and completion of the highly contested new pipeline (North Dakota Access PL) that would not have been built IMHO had the original Keystone border crossing been built.

I spent many thousands of words about this TECHNICAL aspect over the years so won't bother any more. Those details are out there for those that are willing to spend the time doing the research.