[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') know rockdof, those doomer metrics don't count, not when you have some good old EBITDA valuation to prop up the equity

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')our experience. Not Steve St. Angelo's experience. Not Rune Likvern, Nick Cunningham, David Hughes et al. Get a blog.

[coffeeguyzz]

Rocdoc

Surprised you engage with old pisstar here, especially when he references that Steve guy.
Of all the massively wrong "prognosticators/analysts" out there, this Steve takes the cake.
And being worse than Hughes is saying a lot.

No need to take my word, just read back the last few years "analysis" compared to reality and see fo yo self.

Biggest reason for huge spike in produced water is the choking back on production first several months, including what used to be copiously produced/categorized as flowback

Again, don't take my word, just pull up Bruce Oksol's milliondollarway blogspot for today and check out the handful of spectacular MRO wells that have been online about 4 months.
Produced water ranges from 150 to 200 thousand barrels or so.
This is 10 times higher than the historical norm.

Reason?

They are KEEPING FRAC FLUID IN GROUND WHILE NOW PRODUCING!
Apparently the elevated, induced pressure is hugely boosting production.
These wells are now producing 100 to 150 thousand barrels oil first few months.

The historical produced water has not changed at all.

[coffeeguyzz]

The wells on Oksol's site are from WPX, not MRO.
One well had 220,000 barrels water first 4 months as 'produced'.

This is NOT the historical produced water. It is the bulk of injected (frac) water now coming out with the hydrocarbons.

One well produced 172,000 barrels oil first 4 months.

[rockdoc123]

coffeeguyz....I did mention the effect you point to that re-frack fluid can come back over time for various reasons. But as you point out sometimes they manage it. Looking at water production without understanding it (as pstarr seems apt to do) is folly.

As to pstarrs comments

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')e discerns the difference, I discern the difference, even your frosh students (perhaps) understand and discern the difference. 

[ROCKMAN]

pstarr – "Exactly how do you discern the difference?” Don’t have time to go through his work. But this is how it’s normally done. First, if there is a significantly difference between the reservoir salinity and the frac fluid salinity a simple ratio analysis of the produce fluid will answer the question. Likewise typically there are chemicals in the frac fluid not found in the reservoir fluid. Again a simple ration analysis gets the job done. Or we can add a simple and cheap chemical marker to the working fluid. I’ve done that on many jobs.

[ROCKMAN]

pstarr - How is an increasing water cut a "failed economic model?. As I just explained from trend development standpoint it's fully anticipated. Likewise with an individual well it has been a part of every economic analysis I've seen for 42 yeas.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')irst, if there is a significantly difference between the reservoir salinity and the frac fluid salinity a simple ratio analysis of the produce fluid will answer the question. Likewise typically there are chemicals in the frac fluid not found in the reservoir fluid. Again a simple ration analysis gets the job done. Or we can add a simple and cheap chemical marker to the working fluid. I’ve done that on many jobs.