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Saudi Aramco IPO

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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 24 Jul 2018, 19:12:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')et it now?


let's see, you were the one claiming the IPO was cancelled....the article did not say that, you also claimed they were cancelling the IPO because they were afraid of reserve disclosure when in fact the reserve audits were already complete and according to the auditors in line with ARAMCO claims and then you also claimed that ARAMCO would not need to be worried about the 911 related class action suit..which they have said publically they are worried about. So wrong on all counts.

Get it now? :roll:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')h well....in the mean time ARAMCO is going to be very busy taking over SABIC


what part of my note regarding the deal with SABIC did you not understand? They are not going to purchase anything but the PIF holdings according to the CEO of ARAMCO, either a portion or all but that does not make them the owner of the company (which is inferred by the term takeover) it simply makes them the majority shareholder. To be owner and this to be an actual takeover they would need to make an offer for the remaining outstanding 30% of shares which they have said there is no intention to do. With their current plan they would get a position or two on the Board of Directors of SABIC but SABIC remains as a public company listed on the Riyadh exchange.

Get it now? :roll:
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 24 Jul 2018, 20:05:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')They are not going to purchase anything but the PIF holdings according to the CEO of ARAMCO


The PIF holdings constitute 70% of all the shares.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')that does not make them the owner of the company


Buying 70% of the shares will give ARAMCO what is called a "controlling interest" in SABIC. ARAMCO doesn't have to buy up all the shares to take over SABIC. They merely have to buy up enough shares to take over control of the company. And 70% of the shares is more then enough to do that.

Do you get it now or am I going to have to explain this to you another three times. :lol: :-D :P :roll:

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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 24 Jul 2018, 21:44:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')uying 70% of the shares will give ARAMCO what is called a "controlling interest" in SABIC. ARAMCO doesn't have to buy up all the shares to take over SABIC. They merely have to buy up enough shares to take over control of the company. And 70% of the shares is more then enough to do that.

Do you get it now or am I going to have to explain this to you another three times. :lol: :-D :P :roll:


The term "takeover" in light of UK transactions and most other places infers purchase of one public company by another company and as opposed to the term "acquisition" more often than not is used in the context of the target company opposing the purchase (often referred to as a hostile takeover). That means all of the shares. In this case it would be ARAMCO buying not only the PIF interest but all outstanding shares and the entity would then become ARAMCO. If ARAMCO acquires (friendly acqusition) more than 50% of the shares outstanding through a purchase of PIF they become the controlling shareholder in SABIC not the owner which means something entirely different in the context of a public company. Perhaps this is just terminology but it does impact how the resulting company is structured and what rights the controlling shareholder has.
Buying shares in the company gives them the most votes in matters that do not require unanimity. In most oil and gas companies the corporate documents specify that there are many, many matters that require unanimity including sale, listing etc. There are also minority shareholders rights that are held inviolate.
The two companies will remain separate with separate management and BOD. ARAMCO will end up with one or more seats on the Board but generally, public companies look to independent Board members as it is something that attracts new shareholders. As a consequence, the amount of control that ARAMCO will actually have is limited to those matters which require shareholder votes. They will no doubt be able to put their own guy into the main role (CEO) via the voting rights but they will have limited control on actual day to day business and the two companies must be kept at arms length. This is the way it works with public companies with cross interests everywhere.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here is no need for a reserve audit. Wikipedia (very trusted) as an authoritative voice in the bloggosphere reports that proven oil reserves in Saudi Arabia are the 2nd largest in the world, estimated to be 268 billion barrels (43×109 m3) (Gbbl hereafter), including 2.5 Gbbl in the Saudi–Kuwaiti neutral zone. But we knew that all along.

not sure why you always want to play the fool, but you are good at it, must come naturally.
The audits were conducted by Gaffney Cline & Assoc and DeGolyer Macnaughton the two largest firms in the world who do this sort of work. When they sign off on these reports they are legally responsible. In this case the parties have stated their assessment is in line with ARAMCO. What this points to is that your continual ridiculous claim that SA is lying about their reserves is complete and utter nonsense.
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 25 Jul 2018, 13:10:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he term "takeover" in light of UK transactions and most other places infers purchase of one public company by another company .... That means all of the shares.


Add the business world to the long list of things that you don't understand. :lol: :P :-D :roll:

First lets define what a takeover is: A takeover occurs when an acquiring company makes a bid in an effort to assume control of a target company, often by purchasing a majority stake in the target firm. ...

Once ARAMCO buys 70% of SABICs shares they will control a majority stake in SABIC. That mean ARAMCO will be able to vote their shares to take control of the Board of Directors and to appoint a new CEO and to set any corporate policy they want. I repeat: ARAMCO will be able to change the CEO or take any action they wish with regard to reorganizing SABIC and integrating it into their own operations or allowing to operate independently as a subsidiary. The decision will belong to ARAMCO. Yes, there will still be 30% of the share outstanding, but that is a minority of the shares and won't be able to prevent ARAMCO from doing whatever they want. Most of those shares will be voted with the new management (i.e. ARAMCO) anyway. Of course it is possible ARAMCO may eventually buy those shares as well, but they will have already taken control by buying the 70% controlling interest.

So---to review--- ARAMCO will take control of SABIC by buying 70% of the shares... They don't control it now, but after the purchase of a majority of the stock they will have taken over and will control it. Anything that ARAMCO wants SABIC to do it will do, because ARAMCO will be in control.

Surely thats a simple enough idea to understand, even for you.

OK---thats three times over three days I've explained these very simple ideas to you. Are you going to go for your existing record of two weeks of posting over and over and over again on a single completely inconsequential topic?

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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 25 Jul 2018, 14:40:34

OH please....you are telling me about the oil and gas business and about how this works? How much A&D have you been involved with in the oil and gas business? How many executive or board roles have you had in public or private companies? None it looks like.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') repeat: ARAMCO will be able to change the CEO or take any action they wish with regard to reorganizing SABIC and integrating it into their own operations or allowing to operate independently as a subsidiary.


Wrong. As I said as a shareholder ARAMCO can not appoint a CEO, they can propose through their position on the Board that there is a change in management. That is a vote that must go to all shareholders. Generally (unless their corporate documents state otherwise) this is not a unanimous vote but a majority in which case ARAMCO will win out.

They cannot take
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')ake any action they wish with regard to reorganizing SABIC and integrating it into their own operations or allowing to operate independently as a subsidiary.


that is just stupid. SABIC is a public company. It can't be integrated into a private company. It isn't a subsidiary because ARAMCO does not outright own 100% of SABIC, they would only own a controlling interest. Any changes of this nature require 1. unanimous votes and 2. purchase of all remaining outstanding shares. Where do you get this nonsense?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')es, there will still be 30% of the share outstanding, but that is a minority of the shares and won't be able to prevent ARAMCO from doing whatever they want.


apparently, you know very little about how corporations work. The minority shareholders have specific rights which keep the majority shareholder from "doing whatever they want". And there are many issues that require a unanimous vote in order to happen. As well there are specific laws that require an arrangement of this nature to be "at arms length", meaning ARAMCO cannot act like it "owns" SABIC outright as that flies in the face of most securities regulations.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')K---thats three times over three days I've explained these very simple ideas to you. Are you going to go for your existing record of two weeks of posting over and over and over again on a single completely inconsequential topi


Look you moron....you have jumped all over the place with your views on this. Lets back up a couple of pages in this thread and look at what you actually said.


you said:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')RAMCO may be combined with SABIC, a huge Saudi petrochemicals company, in order to increase the value of ARAMCO 

inferring a complete "takeover" of 100% of the shares and then integration. This cannot happen with a partial share purchase suggesting you actually believed something else was happening.

then you said:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f KSA goes ahead with this, KSA will putting an ARAMCO-SABIC IPO on the market instead of the original sale involving just Aramco

This could not happen unless ARAMCO did a 100% takeover of SABIC. And it certainly can't happen with the current proposal of buying shares because SABIC is a public company already. Please explain to everyone here how you do an IPO of a public company :roll:

and then you said:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t would no longer be the original and much ballyhooed IPO for just ARAMCO assets. KSA would now be sweetening the deal by offering a different IPO package involving both ARAMCO assets AND SABIC assets

Again inferring you believed this would be a 100% takeover of SABIC. Or you have some stupid idea about doing an IPO of something that is already public.

So please spare us all the BS. You have changed your tune once you were instructed and now are portraying it as if it was your original understanding all along. Not only that but you haven't a clue how a public company actually operates, what rights a majority shareholder has or the actual meaning of "control" in this situation.
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 25 Jul 2018, 15:08:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '.')...you are telling me about the oil and gas business and about how this works?


Yes, that does seem to be exactly what is happening. :lol: :P :-D :roll:

Somebody has to explain things to you---you obviously don't understand that ARAMCO is buying a majority controlling interest in SABIC, you don't understand that the ARAMCO IPO will be further delayed for at least a year because of the SABIC deal and the subsequent reorganization of ARAMCO and SABIC to accommodate SABIC's downstream operations, and you don't understand that the WSJ and other media sources are reporting that the ARAMCO IPO is likely toast anyway.

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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 25 Jul 2018, 15:19:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')omebody has to explain things to you---you obviously don't understand that ARAMCO is buying a majority controlling interest in SABIC, you don't understand that the ARAMCO IPO will be further delayed for at least a year because of the SABIC deal and the subsequent reorganization of ARAMCO and SABIC to accommodate SABIC's downstream operations, and you don't understand that the WSJ and other media sources are reporting that the ARAMCO IPO is likely toast anyway.


Read your previous posts.

Also you apparently don't get the fact that

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 's')ubsequent reorganization of ARAMCO and SABIC to accommodate SABIC's downstream operations,


doesn't work with your new view that this is not a 100% share acquisition which would see SABIC integrated into ARAMCO but just a purchase of controlling interest in SABIC. ARAMCO is simply a majority shareholder of an entirely separate publicly traded company. They will not reorganize themselves simply because the two companies have to be "at arms length" . SABIC will see new Board members and possibly a few new executive but otherwise it is a separate company and must remain so as long as it is public and not owned 100% by ARAMCO.
If you want to keep changing your claims then I think you should try to be consistent or at least try to understand how something like this would work.

As to when an IPO happens...as the CEO of ARAMCO stated it will happen when the Gov't is ready to do so and not before.
And his latest TV interview states they are moving ahead with hopes of 2019 but again timing is not their decision.
The only thing the SABIC purchase does really is distract ARAMCO management from the IPO, it has no effect on valuation nor how they might handle a partial IPO as they spoke to last year. Does it alter how the Gov't looks at the importance of an IPO...we will see. Higher prices are likely more important to that end.
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 25 Jul 2018, 15:37:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', ' ')They will not reorganize themselves...


Your prediction of what ARAMCO will do with SABIC after it takes control may be right or it may be wrong, but its hard to put much faith in your predictions after all your bogus predictions concerning the timing of the ARAMCO IPO. Your many claims that the ARAMCO IPO was going ahead on schedule have proven to be totally bogus.....the SABIC deal will delay things until at least 2019---and thats on top of the two years delays and postponements we've already seen.

Cheers! :lol: :-D :P :roll:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'N')o one is going to bet the store on SA reserve measures. Laughable ha ha ha


Of course not. But don't tell that to the crocdoc. He believes anything ARAMCO management and the KSA royal family say.

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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 25 Jul 2018, 16:20:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')our prediction of what ARAMCO will do with SABIC after it takes control may be right or it may be wrong, but its hard to put much faith in your predictions after all your bogus predictions concerning the timing of the ARAMCO IPO. Your many claims that the ARAMCO IPO was going ahead on schedule have proven to be totally bogus.....the SABIC deal will delay things until at least 2019---and thats on top of the two years delays and postponements we've already seen.


It isn't a "prediction". They are limited to what they can do by securities laws and their own corporate governance which you would understand if you had any concept of how any of this worked. Your comments illustrate a profound ignorance of normal corporate governance or securities regulations.

I haven't made any predictions about when an ARAMCO IPO would happen, please show a quote where I said the IPO would happen in 2016. What I have stated is that they haven't canceled it (which you claimed they had) and merely quoted comments from ARAMCO or the Saudi government as to when they saw it going forward, and most of those were that they were proceeding under a schedule. What is clear is that they have done much of the ground work for that IPO including reserve and financial audits. The Saudi Gov't will make the appropriate decision as to timing as I have said. The rising prices have changed a lot of the sense of urgency they originally had in terms of helping to balance the budget. It is amazing to me how you dodge and twist your arguments as you go, assuming that nobody can actually go back a few pages and figure it out. This definitely seems to be your pattern.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')f course not. But don't tell that to the crocdoc. He believes anything ARAMCO management and the KSA royal family say.


As opposed to you believing every dodgy press article that quotes unnamed and unknown sources and then misinterpreting what they said as well? Give me a break. There is a host of evidence out there pointing to ARAMCO proceeding with an IPO irrespective of the actual timing or how large an offering it might be including the reserve and financial audits as well as retaining the services of very large international investment banking advisors to advise on the IPO.
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 25 Jul 2018, 17:24:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')egarding those reserve audits; I don't see how a seismic review is even possible? How can you tell what it is if you can't see it? It would be like doing an eye examine with a mirror.

There is so much down-hole equipment in there; DHSV's, submersible pumps, safety valves, that kind of thing. All that metal. The equipment grease alone has got to be indistinguishable now from the oily sheen that remains.

You know? The oily sheen floating on H20 reserves. All that is left over after 60 years of primary, secondary and tertiary production gimmickry.


I've explained this a few times before, but once again. ARAMCO has the worlds largest full field model which incorporates all of the data ever collected from production in the fields including production volumes of oil, gas, and water, injection volumes, bottom hole pressures, flowing pressures etc etc. They are now running everything as a SmartField operation where literally everything done in the field is collected in real-time and incorporated into their analyses. They have a wealth of 3 D seismic data collected from quite a while ago which would allow them to compare volumetric OIP and GIP with that which has been recovered from production. The full field models which have millions of cells that are being calculated simultaneously yield the prediction on recoverable oil, water, and gas on a probabilistic basis. The reserve auditors would have had access to all of this data and the static and dynamic model outputs in order to make their assessments.

And there has been no tertiary production of any significance in Saudi Arabia. There is one small area near Haradh I where a project mainly looking to carbon sequestration is also looking at enhanced recovery through CO2 injection. That project has only been in-place for a few months.
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 25 Jul 2018, 17:58:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hey have ... full field models which have millions of cells that are being calculated simultaneously yield the prediction on recoverable oil, water, and gas on a probabilistic basis.


Blah blah blah.

You're totally missing the point. ARAMCO may have great computer models and wonderful data and the latest thing in composting toilets at its remote sites-----but there is no IPO. There are lots of excuses for what is becoming years of delay, but the bottom line is there is still no IPO.

Face facts---the IPO Aramco said they were going to do way back in Jan. 2016 hasn't gotten done. And, of course, the SABIC deal will delay it again. The earliest it can happen now is 2019---if it happens at all.

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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 25 Jul 2018, 18:24:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou're totally missing the point. ARAMCO may have great computer models and wonderful data and the latest thing in composting toilets at its remote sites-----but there is no IPO. There are lots of excuses for what is becoming years of delay, but the bottom line is there is still no IPO.


Christ on a bisquit....how many times do you have to be told that executing an IPO involves a process? Of course there hasn't been an IPO, if there was they would be a public company. It takes many months if not more than a year just to put all the material in place if you are a private company with previous audits and books kept to international standards and ARAMCO is not in that category. They started the process by hiring investment banks, they did the reserve audits, they did the financial audits and they have been discussing with the various exchanges. The actual process entails filing of all this material including the prospectus a couple of months before the IPO and initial listing actually happens and they have chosen not to do this. Throughout the period they have been preparing the materials in advance of an actual listing the oil price has been rising which means the valuation of the offering is also rising. They would be pretty stupid to execute the prospectus now when oil prices might rise another 20% in the near future wouldn't they?

What does it matter when they do it?

The actual point being talked about: the reserves audit is significant because it is coming back saying that what ARAMCO has been saying publicly about their proven bbls is correct. This negates all the BS that has been parroted on this site over the past decade regarding ARAMCO lying about their reserves.
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 25 Jul 2018, 19:42:40

Christ on a bisquit....

Bhudda on a lotus blossom

executing an IPO involves a process ...It takes many months

Of course.

The typical IPO takes 6-9 months to do. But the ARAMCO IPO was announced 30 months ago and there is still no sign of it happening. ARAMCO hired consultants to evaluate their business, but that data has never been released to prospective investors. There's been Zero. Nada. Nothing. Crickets chirping.

How are they going to do an IPO if they don't actually take steps to do an IPO? There is no date for the IPO. There hasn't been a release of financial data or a release of information on their oil reserves for prospective investors yet. They haven't picked a bank to help them bring the IPO to market. There isn't anything happening that would normally be happening. They haven't even picked a market for the IPO yet. And, as if that wasn't enough negative news for the IPO, ARAMCO insiders are leaking to reporters at WSJ and elsewhere the news that the IPO ain't happening at all.

This must be the tenth time I've explained this to you....you really are a bit of thickie, aren't you? :lol:

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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 25 Jul 2018, 21:17:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he typical IPO takes 6-9 months to do. But the ARAMCO IPO was announced 30 months ago and there is still no sign of it happening. ARAMCO hired consultants to evaluate their business, but that data has never been released to prospective investors. There's been Zero. Nada. Nothing. Crickets chirping.


Do you actually understand how an IPO works? A public prospectus is not released until not very far in advance of the actual listing (a month to two months in my experience). There is no such thing as a "typical IPO", they are all different and this one is particularly complex given the private company has not previously adhered to international standards regarding audit and accounting. They have been talking to investment banks as they normally would in advance of submitting the appropriate paperwork to whichever exchange they choose. .

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow are they going to do an IPO if they don't actually take steps to do an IPO?


Are you a freaking idiot? What steps? Do you mean getting their books in order (they've been doing that), retaining an investment bank as the advisors and the groups who will back stop the monetization during stabilization (they've already signed up two of the largest banks 2 years ago), Do you mean talking with the various exchanges to see which one offers the best deal for them (they've been in that process for over a year), do you mean getting the required COGEH compliant reserve report done (they've done this through two of the largest and most respected firms in the world), do you mean having 3 years of audited financials (they've engaged external accounting firms to aid in this process). What they haven't done is got to the point where they pull the trigger and submit all of the paperwork to the exchange they choose. At that point they end up in discussions with the exchange over appropriate valuation of the IPO and once that valuation is agreed upon they can then put together the prospectus which would be issued to potential investors. The process is fairly quick and predictable once the paperwork is submitted, the question is having done all the work why are they waiting?

As I said previously, what is holding them back is the fact commodity price has been rising which means the valuation is a moving target. They almost certainly do not want to risk doing something that could lose them hundreds of millions of dollars in the process. This has been said in the Arab press previously:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's the burning question in the oil industry: when will Saudi Arabia pull the trigger on the Aramco stock market listing?
Many industry experts are focusing on the current level of oil prices. However another key consideration for Saudi officials in floating up to 5 percent of the state oil producer is where they see prices in one to two years' time, two sources close to the IPO said.
The Riyadh government is carefully analysing the future price curve structure in oil markets because it regards prices further out as an important element in achieving a high valuation in what could be the biggest initial public offering in history, the sources told Reuters.
Ideally, so-called long-dated prices for one and two years ahead need to move at least $10 higher - to around $70 per barrel - for the government to be happy to launch the listing, said the sources, who declined to be named as the information is confidential.
"When will the ideal moment come?" said one of the sources. "Maybe you should also look at the forward curve for oil ... as the forward curve will be key for investors valuing Aramco."


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'h')ttps://www.arabianbusiness.com/energy/390228-for-timing-of-aramco-ipo-watch-forward-oil-price-curve


this is important because the forward curve instructs what is used as the basis for the NPV calculations done in the reserve reports. Back when they started this process the forward curve was about $20 - $30 less than it is now when you look out 10 years. That improves the value of the IPO immensely so it isn't surprising they aren't in any rush now.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')his must be the tenth time I've explained this to you....you really are a bit of thickie, aren't you?

given it is very clear you don't have the first clue about how an IPO is conducted and you have changed your story several times, I'm not sure what it is you think you are explaining to anyone? Pretty sad if you actually have convinced yourself you are an expert. :roll:
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 27 Jul 2018, 18:33:13

Now that the ARAMCO IPO has stalled out, KSA wants ARAMCO to borrow from international banks to raise the cash to buy SABIC. In fact, according to the WSJ, ARAMCO is already out in the credit markets trying to issue a bond to raise money for the SABIC deal.

saudi-arabia-pressures-aramco-to-take-on-debt-after-ipo-stalls-

I'm a little surprised that ARAMCO is already out trying to borrow the money to do the SABIC takeover, after they spent years talking about doing the IPO and then did nothing, but Prince Muhammad bin Salman wants the cash ASAP. The 50-70 billon that ARAMCO would borrow and then pony up to buy control of SABIC is about the same amount of money the kingdom hoped to gain from the ARAMCO IPO, so the SABIC deal is now the first order of business for ARAMCO and KSA.

And as far as the much delayed ARAMCO IPO goes, the WSJ, in their typical understated style, reports, "preparations for an ARAMCO IPO have stalled amid doubts about the company’s and country’s readiness to handle the scrutiny that accompanies a public listing of shares.".

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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 27 Jul 2018, 20:44:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '&')quot;preparations for an ARAMCO IPO have stalled amid doubts about the company’s and country’s readiness to handle the scrutiny that accompanies a public listing of shares."

Imagine that lol


Of course that is exactly what you and I have been saying all along. Kudos to us for our extraordinary insight and understanding of this issue.

But I'll bet there is a certain ignorant dummy who posts on this thread who still won't get it. :idea: :lol: :-D :roll:

Cheers!
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 28 Jul 2018, 11:47:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')f course that is exactly what you and I have been saying all along. Kudos to us for our extraordinary insight and understanding of this issue.

But I'll bet there is a certain ignorant dummy who posts on this thread who still won't get it. :idea: :lol: :-D :roll:


Not sure why you want to continue to play the asshat here.
As was pointed out to you on numerous occasions if they were worried about "public scrutiny" ie. disclosure laws then why did they start down the IPO pathway in the first place? Why have they spent millions of dollars (likely) preparing for the IPO including hiring two of the top investment banks, reserve audit, financial audit etc? It's not like disclosure laws are a secret or anything are they.? They would have been fully aware of the need for "continuous disclosure" before they even decided to go down the IPO road. There isn't anything new they could have learned about disclosure through the process. And why then, do they continue to go down the IPO road when they could have easily stopped a couple of years ago? The answer is pretty simple....disclosure is their least concern. Suggesting otherwise is just basic ignorance of public company securities requirements.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')et that? A 'more attractive proposition'? Really lol

So blathersphere's rationalization for the SABIC distraction is . . . hold on to your lunch . . . it sweetens the Aramco asset pot ha ha ha ha ha. As if that is necessary? As if 283 billion barrels of oil reserves (worth $19,810,000,000,000 at today's market price) isn't enough sugar for the Royal Princesses and their Suitors.


As I have said above a number of times acquisition of part or the whole of SABIC has no impact whatsoever on valuation for purposes of an IPO simply because it shows up as "money cycling" on the balance sheet. What value they bring in from SABIC is paid for out of ARAMCO cash and debt instruments. It is a complete wash in terms how the valuation happens for an IPO. But keep saying it does, keep referencing the same articles .....do it enough times and someone who is stupid enough will actually believe this is the case. Oh wait, you already have. :roll:

And a simple fact the two of you haven't figured out is by buying the PIF held interest in SABIC and then proceeding with the IPO after, it is the Saudi Arabian government that makes out like a bandit. They first get the money from the sale of their shares in SABIC and then when the IPO happens they get all of those shares back again only in this case in actual ARAMCO shares. A pretty smart move.

And as to seeking a loan to achieve the purchase of SABIC shares if you actually look at the numbers it makes complete sense. The PIF portion of SABIC is reportedly worth around $70 billion. Last year ARAMCO saw revenues of around $60 billion but out of that they have to pay for CAPEX (reportedly around $12 billion), OPEX (likely around $9 billion) and all of their G&A (who knows how much but probably another few million). The rest is working capital. There is no way in the world they could swing the deal out of working capital without taking on debt to do it unless they sold something else they held which, given they are in a growth mode, would make no sense. ON the other hand that working capital can easily handle the carrying charges associated with the new acquired debt. SABIC is a strategic purchase for ARAMCO given they have had a goal of increasing their downstream presence in order to even out the cash flow fluctuations associated with commodity price.
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 28 Jul 2018, 12:20:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'i')f they were worried about "public scrutiny" ie. disclosure laws then why did they start down the IPO pathway in the first place?


Because KSA is a monarchy. They don't have a heck of a lot of experience with public scrutiny and disclosure laws in KSA and Prince Muhammad al Salman didn't realize the kind of disclosure ARAMCO would have to go through to do an IPO in the USA. Its an inherent weakness in dictatorships like KSA that decisions are ultimately made by one person who, like every other person, will sometimes be ill-informed and sometimes will make mistakes.

Its way past time for you to accept the facts here. The ARAMCO IPO has stalled out. The current plan is for ARAMCO to borrow 50-70 billion of dollars from international banks and then use those funds to buy out the Saudi state's holdings in SABIC.

Do you have any other questions I can help you with?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')asshat


Your potty mouth is overflowing again. Please flush!

Cheers! :lol: :) :-D :P :roll:
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 28 Jul 2018, 14:11:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ecause KSA is a monarchy. They don't have a heck of a lot of experience with public scrutiny and disclosure laws in KSA and Prince Muhammad al Salman didn't realize the kind of disclosure ARAMCO would have to go through to do an IPO in the USA. Its an inherent weakness in dictatorships like KSA that decisions are ultimately made by one person who, like every other person, will sometimes be ill-informed and sometimes will make mistakes.


Oh, give me a break. Disclosure requirements on all the exchanges around the world are widely known by anyone who has ever traded a share let alone tried to list a company. Salman is first and foremost a businessman, he is well educated and is not some gullible Arab in a dish dash as you might want to portray him. And they hired investment banks as advisors early on and continued on with putting everything in place for an IPO. Are you now going to claim the investment banks didn't understand the rules around disclosure? Jesus wept. :roll:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ts way past time for you to accept the facts here. The ARAMCO IPO has stalled out. The current plan is for ARAMCO to borrow 50-70 billion of dollars from international banks and then use those funds to buy out the Saudi state's holdings in SABIC.


this is not a case of if you do one you can't do the other. There is nothing to indicate ARAMCO has decided against an IPO, in fact the last interview a couple of weeks ago with the CEO indicated they were continuing to move ahead with putting it all together, the timing of the actual listing being up to the gov't.

And again, what is the rush to complete the IPO? In fact it would be stupid on ARAMCO's behalf to list while the valuation is ever-increasing.
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 28 Jul 2018, 15:09:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e would all like to look at the reserve data. 4D seismo. We knew what the oil portion (the red) looked lie in 2007.


I suspect if it were available you wouldn't understand what it is you are looking at. That is obvious given the map you show is not a map based on 4d seismic mapping...it is a computer simulation using superclusters.
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