by rockdoc123 » Tue 24 Jul 2018, 14:56:23
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')eality check. There is no IPO. Its not even scheduled.
an IPO isn't "scheduled" until it is actually kicked off through the appropriate submission of all documents and filings to the exchange where the IPO would happen. That won't happen until weeks to a couple of months before the actual IPO or listing. IN the meanwhile the "plans" to complete an IPO require massive amounts of work for someone like ARAMCO given they have been private and not until recently had their reserves or books audited. That is why they have been talking about moving towards an IPO. All along they have said it would be nice to have in 2018 and now they are saying nice to have in 2019. That is understandable given the commodity price has been rising and hasn't stabilized as yet.
So by definition of "scheduled" there has never been an IPO, just like there was never an IPO for many companies during the period they were preparing for it.
But that does not mean ARAMCO has decided to stop the IPO process as you have claimed earlier on. In the most recent interview with Amin Nasser the CEO of ARAMCO he said they were still proceeding with all the requirements leading up to an IPO but the actual timing of that listing being a decision that the gov't would make as sole shareholder.
And to clarify some of the information regarding SABIC. In regards to that recent interview with Nasser:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')n Thursday, Aramco said it was in “very early-stage discussions” with the kingdom’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) to acquire the SABIC stake in a private transaction,
and had no plans to acquire any publicly held shares.
so what does that mean? It means that there is no merger or takeover planned. SABIC would remain a public company listed on the Riyadh exchange. The only difference would be ARAMCO would buy all or the majority of the 70% shares in SABIC that the PIF currently holds. SABIC does not become part of ARAMCO...all that happens is ARAMCO becomes majority shareholder. For valuation purposes it is exactly as I stated above. ARAMCO would have to pay the gov't of SA the market value (or an uplift) for the 50 - 70% shares they might purchase. That value would become an asset on the ARAMCO books but it would be offset by the money they had to pay for that asset whether that be in their own working capital or through some form of debt obtained from investment banks (in which case the valuation would deal with the value of the debt incurred). ARAMCO may get value from preferential deals they can make with a company they own shares in and SABIC in turn could see some value in this arrangement as well. ARAMCO might also be able to direct expansion of SABIC into downstream areas ARAMCO is currently chasing.
The only reason this would stall an IPO is that it would require ARAMCO to deal with a bunch of separate issues with regards to share purchases and raising cash (distraction from what is still required to complete the work needed for an IPO) and the valuation would have to be rejigged to consider the cash out /asset value in issue.
When an IPO happens is almost certainly more to do with timing around commodity price than anything else....that is still what drives the valuation of ARAMCO and the amount of capital that the government would have (a trade off between capital from the IPO versus revenues from taxes and royalties). If they decide at some point not to do an IPO (which they haven't yet) it will because they don't need the cash for all of their diversification plans, not because they are worried about disclosure (given they have already opened up their collective kimonas through the reserve audits and financial audits).