[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'r')alfie – All I can do is repeat the same point over and over: Hubbert was predicting the peak production of those fields that comprised the population he was modeling. And yes, those fields were primarily conventional reservoirs…but not entirely. And again folks should read his report again: he specifically points out that his model does not include trends that have not been developed yet. Such as the shales and the offshore. The shales such as the Eagle Ford which had been proven to be insignificant AT THAT TIME. And the offshore which was in the very earliest stage of analysis.

His prediction of those fields he modeled has been proven correct. In fact, amazingly accurate. But as I’ve pointed out before: not meaning to minimize his projection those fields were already very mature and, for the most part, were at or close to their individual peak production. As far as secondary recovery efforts go they might change the decline side of the curve but it’s impossible for them to change the peak timing. Over decades they might add significant cumulative production but at such a slow rate to be meaningless in terms of the peak timing.

As global PO I don’t tend to pull apart his analysis since I’m not as familiar with foreign fields as I am with those in the US. But given very significant trends that developed after his report I suspect that’s were most if not all of the projection proved inaccurate.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tita', 'I') would add that there is no simple way to forecast this maximum point of production (if there is any). Oil markets go through busts and booms. The last bust didn't last long, as we are already at price levels similar to 2005 (inflation adjusted). A boom is maybe right around the corner now. Each boom gives its bundle of fears regarding the scarcity of oil, but improve reserve growth. Busts can devastate producers and reduce reserves.

2018 will be regarded as the year we hit a production rate of 100 Mb/d (all liquids), something thought impossible 10 years ago. Increasing this rate increases the amount of reserve we need to replace.

IMHO, the rapidity we returned to an boom situation is a clue to how near we are from peak oil. Peak oil is when there is no more bust and boom, just the inability to increase reserves in a seemingly boom market.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hat seems like a good yardstick. Except for the typical PO caveat about transparency of reserve numbers and different production rates of xheavy and black dirt.

BP says that looks like this

[Pops]

basically I couldn't find straight reserves or reserve history, lol
you could tho...