[EdwinSm]

I can sort of picture what an almost immediate collapse could look like [its a nightmare].

What I am having difficulty is envisioning how a collapse might unfold over say 2 generations (50-60 years), without society falling into the immediate collapse nightmare situation. Most of the changes that I think about do not bring much of a population reduction. Eg suicides will increase, but they are at such a low level that they will have to be an astronomical increase to make much dent in the world population, or the initial stress of an event might cause more heart attacks (as in an earthquake situation) but soon it will revert back to the old patterns. I can see a lot of pressure for DNR / Allow a Natural Death to reduce the elderly population, but that will not bring things to a more sustainable level.

Can any of you recommend good novels or easily accessed papers (ie not behind the 'paid wall') that give a vision how a slow collapse might look like?


THANKS

ps. I am enough of a doomer that I do not expect BAU to continue much longer, but as an "optimistic doomer´ a long decline looks likely. I suppose I am looking for ideas to think about how I might position myself to meet what I consider to be more likely scenarios.

[SeaGypsy]

I'm not surprised nobody has jumped in with relevant answers. The reason being, de-growth economics has not been invented, being the exact opposite of the only economic system in existence. The only historical response is killing, war.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'I')'m not surprised nobody has jumped in with relevant answers. The reason being, de-growth economics has not been invented, being the exact opposite of the only economic system in existence. The only historical response is killing, war.

[KaiserJeep]

FWIW, I believe that the USA and the World has been in the slow process of collapse for over a century, and things have been worsening for that long. The symptoms of collapse are overpopulation, disease, famine, and war. We have never been free of them. I mean, why did you think the world has a refugee crisis? Those people come from the areas where collapse is accelerating. However conditions are worsening the world over.

You do not need literature depicting this, you are living it. You know exactly what it is like. There will never come a time or even a perceptable event that represents collapse, because we have been in collapse for a century, and have another century (at least) to go, and your Grandkids will think you asked a foolish question.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'F')WIW, I believe that the USA and the World has been in the slow process of collapse for over a century, and things have been worsening for that long.

[KaiserJeep]

I believe that in a world that during my lifetime has busted through the 3 billion, 4 billion, 5 billion, 6 billion, and 7 billion humans population milestones, and is presntly closing on 8 Billion, that the average human condition has worsened. I also think that due to the uneven distribution of stuff, that a street dwelling person in say Bangladesh might have an opinion that differs from yours. Collapse is a process acting at different rates in different places.

In many parts of the world, humans struggle to acquire food, clean water, and warmth. Here in Silly Valley, humans feel deprived and impoverished to not own the latest version of the iPhone.

[Pops]

I have no recommendation, however my thought on "collapse" has long been more in the realm of population decline (except for odd Wednesdays when I go full doom).

Requisite plot:


Capitalism as currently constituted depends on growth, which depends primarily on population increase. Crash doesn't require increased mortality as often fantasized here, only negative growth and the attendant aging population.

.

[KaiserJeep]

Well, that's a interesting definition of "collapse", associating it with human mortality. When I thought about it, my own definition of human wealth has some definate if not quite clear association with the quality of life. That is however a difficult to define criterion.

[KaiserJeep]

I'm just not seeing it. The USA has major oil reserves left when you consider fracking wells, shales, oil sands, etc. Nobody says you have to sell that oil aftter peak. It runs out a lot faster when you do that. You could just keep all your own oil and it would last a lot longer.... while the rest of the world collapses.

[mmasters]

Natural gas will push things out another 30 years at least. Meanwhile the middle class economy will continue to shrink, it will eventually be the haves and the have nots. The have nots will outnumber the haves and vote in progressive government. Progressive government will take too much from the haves forcing the rich to move out of the US. The progressives will then lose their funding at that point and the country will go bankrupt with all the bloated social welfare programs. That's when it gets ugly.

[EdwinSm]

Thanks for the suggestion to look at the collapse of the Roman Empire. I think I could find lots of stuff about how the edge (Albion) was abandoned - but for those living there that might look like a fairly fast collapse, but life did continue.

I do have some literature about the situation in the Ukraine after the Russian Revolution, which makes for painful reading - How the breadbasket of the Russian Empire was reduced to years of famine, the wanton destruction of production (food as well as machines) in the name of revenge; the appropriation of most farming equipment for various war efforts; appropriation of animals and grain for the cities leaving to little to produce more/plant the next year's crops; the zombie (= anarchist) hordes who entered and killed at will; the far greater numbers killed by disease.

I suppose I was looking for hope that there might be ways to avoid this type of situation on the way down.

[Ibon]

You don't need to look any further than 15 years of thousands of threads posted on this site. Haven't we thoroughly exhausted the topic here?

And you still are looking for more....

Weather its consuming oil or consuming doom it seems we have an insatiable appetite.

Kudzu Apes just never can get enough can we?

[ralfy]

Here's one on limits to growth.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EdwinSm', '
')I do have some literature about the situation in the Ukraine after the Russian Revolution, which makes for painful reading - How the breadbasket of the Russian Empire was reduced to years of famine, the wanton destruction of production (food as well as machines) in the name of revenge; the appropriation of most farming equipment for various war efforts; appropriation of animals and grain for the cities leaving to little to produce more/plant the next year's crops; the zombie (= anarchist) hordes who entered and killed at will; the far greater numbers killed by disease.

[KaiserJeep]

Make no mistake, there has never been a worldwide collapse caused by overpopulation of a single species. The Roman Empire or the collapse of the USSR cannot be compared to TEOTWAWKI, they were strictly local phenomena.

The Dark Ages in Europe are the closest parallel that I can think of. Lasting roughly from the 5th to the 15th centuries, they reflect the surging food production that accompanies developing agriculture via the scientific method, but without the knowledge of disease and the roles played by germs and disease vectors. The result was a thousand years of suffering on the continents of Europe and Asia.

No, I don't think there is a whole lot to be learned there with regard to a worldwide lack of cheap energy caused by the lack of FF's. Very probably, the analysis of TEOTWAKI can only be done in retrospect, after the destruction and dying eases off.

[onlooker]

Read The Long Emergency by... James Howard Kunstler