[jawagord]

When has KSA ever produced 12 mmBBL/D?
https://tradingeconomics.com/saudi-arab ... production

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'T')he WSJ is reporting that Saudi Arabia is not going to go through with its plan to sell shares in Aramco and its oil assets

doubts-grow-aramco-ipo-will-ever-happen-

The sale has already been postposed several times. The reason its looking like the whole things is going to be cancelled is that Saudi is unwilling to disclose information about the condition of their oil assets and oil reserves, apparently because they don't want the world to know how close to depletion Ghawar and their other legacy oil fields are in.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jawagord', 'W')hen has KSA ever produced 12 mmBBL/D?
https://tradingeconomics.com/saudi-arab ... production

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he sale has already been postposed several times. The reason its looking like the whole things is going to be cancelled is that Saudi is unwilling to disclose information about the condition of their oil assets and oil reserves, apparently because they don't want the world to know how close to depletion Ghawar and their other legacy oil fields are in.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he sale has already been postposed several times.

[Plantagenet]

The highest production KSA ever attained was 10.3 million bbls/day back in April 2015.

Apparently they can't get it back up again. The NY Times is reporting that most experts believe they would have a hard time just getting production back up to that level, and getting production up to 11 or 12 million bbls/day is well night impossible without a massive drilling program, which isn't happening.

nytimes: oil-saudi-arabia


And if KSA can't exceed their peak production from April 2015, then Saudi has peaked.

-----------------------------------------------------------

At the same time this is going the WSJ publishes a blockbuster article saying KSA isn''t going through with their much ballyhooed sale of Aramco because they fear doing full disclosure on the nature of their oil reserves.

I quote from the WSJ article below:

Saudi officials and people close to the process say the company and the country simply aren’t ready for an IPO that could raise $100 billion but also bring unprecedented scrutiny to the kingdom’s crown jewel.

“Everyone is almost certain it is not going to happen,” said a senior executive at Aramco, speaking of the IPO.

Aramco executives and outside advisers have become more vocal in recent months about telling Prince Mohammed about the problems with listing the company, government officials said.

Saudi officials say they have determined that listing on a large stock exchange in New York, London or Hong Kong would carry too many legal risks, exposing Aramco to shareholder lawsuits

Cheers!

[kublikhan]

Looks like you took quite a few liberties in interpreting that article Plant. First off, the article says doubts have emerged. It did not say it was offically cancelled. Second, the article says nothing about KSA peaking. Third, it does not list the reason for the delays/doubts as having anything to do with Ghawar depletion or an unwillingness to release reserve numbers. Instead, the article cited exposure to shareholder lawsuits as a reason not to go forth. Other sources cited reasons such as problems with the low oil price in the last few years, problems with the valuation, lack of property rights, etc. Not an unwillingness to disclose information on oil reserves. In fact, 2 external audits have reported that Aramco's reserves are actually slightly higher than official estimates:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')PRIL 29, 2018 - An audit of Saudi Aramco’s oil reserves - an essential part of the preparatory work for its planned initial public offering - has found the state oil giant to have higher reserves than it previously reported. the independent external audit has found the proven oil reserves to be at least 270 billion barrels, which is slightly higher than the 260.8 billion barrels the company reported in its 2016 annual review. Aramco’s official reserves figures were “more than confirmed” said one source. “This is good for the company’s valuation.”

A reserves total significantly above or below the 261 billion figure would likely affect Aramco’s potential market value in the listing and is being closely watched by investors. Dallas-based DeGolyer and MacNaughton, and Gaffney, Cline and Associates, part of Baker Hughes, are involved in the auditing.

[Cog]

Planty you basically inserted YOUR opinion into why Aramco isn't going forward with their IPO. The article doesn't say what you are trying to get it to say. The IPO is not conditional on how many barrels Aramco can produce and never has relied on that number. Other well known factors, such as exposure to lawsuits is much more likely. Going public with a company exposes you to a lot of oversight that a private company does not have.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'P')lanty ... The IPO is not conditional on how many barrels Aramco can produce and never has relied on that number. Other well known factors, such as exposure to lawsuits is much more likely. Going public with a company exposes you to a lot of oversight that a private company does not have.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'L')ooks like you took quite a few liberties in interpreting that article Plant. First off, the article says doubts have emerged. It did not say it was offically cancelled.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he WSJ article cites ARAMCO insiders as saying they fear making disclosures during the IPO process. Considering that the principal data that ARAMCO has that is relevant to the IPO is all oil related, I don't see how you can rule out the idea that ARAMCO does't want to make full disclosures about their oil data as part of the IPO based on their oil reserves.

[Cog]

Just a suspicion on my part, but its likely the amount of money being siphoned out by the royals would be of concern to an investor. In a public offering, you have to disclose salaries and where money is spent. A money trail if you will. That is what I think is the sticking point on the transparency issue involved with a public offering of stock.

To me it makes little difference if Aramco can pump 12 million barrels a day or not. But how long can they maintain current production at a profit is what the reserve numbers should tell you. If you go back to the doom and gloom days of 2008, over at The Oil Drum, I believe the doom forecast was that SA was post-peak and their production would have declined a lot by now. Well that didn't happen.

[Cog]

You can add the USA to that list of pre-peak countries pstarr. Much to the consternation of the doomers. Double-peak anyone?

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'I')t also said the IPO sale has been postponed several times and insiders at ARAMCO say the IPO will never happen.

I don't get why people don't understand the significance of this. The WSJ has written an article giving us a peek inside the secretive world of ARAMCO and KSA. The WSJ article provides early warning the world that the KSA IPO isn't likely to happen. Yes, it hasn't been officially cancelled yet---thats why the WSJ story is such big news. Its whats called a "scoop" by newsmen. The WSJ is breaking an important inside story here. Its like the stories warning that ENRON was about to collapse before it collapsed....knowledge is power and getting the info first is very powerful. IMHO People should pay attention to good journalism like this.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'Y')ou can add the USA to that list of pre-peak countries pstarr. Much to the consternation of the doomers. Double-peak anyone?

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'N')ot the USA, but SA and the rest of OPEC is long past peak.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'S')o it's you! You are the guy with the inside information? Wow. And I can say I knew you when you were just a poser on peakoildotcom

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')ust a suspicion on my part, but its likely the amount of money being siphoned out by the royals would be of concern to an investor. In a public offering, you have to disclose salaries and where money is spent. A money trail if you will. That is what I think is the sticking point on the transparency issue involved with a public offering of stock.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '.') Saudi Arabia is part of OPEC and they cannot independently decide to raise production

[tita]

Anyway, the idea that KSA has peaked is pure speculation, no hard facts.

There are several hints that KSA may be near its peak. They are going to build nuclear plants for their electricity needs (currently entirely produced from oil and gas), they were producing a little bit below their quota recently, they are in a process of diversification of their economy, and there is this IPO.

But hints are not facts. There was a lot of speculation in 2007 that KSA had peaked as their production was down by 1Mb/d (to 8.5Mb/d) from 2005, and oil prices were increasing. And here we are, KSA still producing at their highest rates.

Even if KSA can't reach 11 Mb/d this summer, that won't mean they are at their peak. They may have just delayed some investments, like everybody else, when prices were low.