[Tanada]

[quote="Plantagenet"]
But DELAYING peak oil isn't the same as "getting past it.

[quote="asg70"]
The world really is about to end because I actually agree with this as well.

The system bug will not let me post if I use the quote HTML so I tried putting your statements in different colors of text to make clear who was saying what.

Perhaps it is time to revive the Plateau threads. Turns out we are all three in agreement and that is a rare event in this place these days.

Yes I know technically oil production on a world scale has not plateaued because the USA has grown incredibly in output over the last decade. But world demand has soaked up most of that expanded US Capacity at this point and is still growing robustly. At the same time growth elsewhere (compared to 2008 production rates) has been small while in some provinces like the North Sea declines have been relentless over the last decade balancing out those small increases elsewhere. If not for Fracking we would be well past world peak and if you accept that Hubbert was writing about 'conventional' reservoirs then we have been past peak for a while, we have just delayed the consequences by fracking our brains out in the USA. If not for the 'Great recession' that severely reduced USA/EU consumption for several years we might have proven peak to all and sundry by now including Mr. Lynch aka Spike. For those who care he most recently logged in last Friday but didn't find anything to say on that occasion. He mostly posts on the thread about himself and I might move these posts over there to get his attention.

[mmasters]

I meant getting past the peak oil apocalypse people were predicting in 2008.

Even then it doesn't matter, we have at least 50 years of natural gas to power the economy if oil becomes uneconomical.

There is no doom. Maybe a generation or two out but not for us.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', 'I') meant getting past the peak oil apocalypse people were predicting in 2008.

Even then it doesn't matter, we have at least 50 years of natural gas to power the economy if oil becomes uneconomical.

There is no doom. Maybe a generation or two out but not for us.

[jawagord]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', 'I') meant getting past the peak oil apocalypse people were predicting in 2008.

Even then it doesn't matter, we have at least 50 years of natural gas to power the economy if oil becomes uneconomical.

There is no doom. Maybe a generation or two out but not for us.

[onlooker]

That is all wishful thinking. We have passed the point of no return
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ') 19 ways climate change is now feeding itself

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', 'I') meant getting past the peak oil apocalypse people were predicting in 2008.

Even then it doesn't matter, we have at least 50 years of natural gas to power the economy if oil becomes uneconomical.

There is no doom. Maybe a generation or two out but not for us.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '
')There is no doom. Maybe a generation or two out but not for us.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', 'I') meant getting past the peak oil apocalypse people were predicting in 2008.

Even then it doesn't matter, we have at least 50 years of natural gas to power the economy if oil becomes uneconomical.

There is no doom. Maybe a generation or two out but not for us.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jawagord', '
')
One of the readers at WUWT found this doomer gem from onehundredmonths.org (web location now available) - predictions from 2008, as kiwi chick likes to say rinse and repeat, wonder where she learned that!

100 months to save the world Climate change
The final countdown
Time is fast running out to stop irreversible climate change, a group of global warming experts warns today. We have only 100 months to avoid disaster. Andrew Simms explains why we must act now - and where to begin.

If you shout "fire" in a crowded theatre, when there is none, you understand that you might be arrested for irresponsible behaviour and breach of the peace. But from today, I smell smoke, I see flames and I think it is time to shout. I don't want you to panic, but I do think it would be a good idea to form an orderly queue to leave the building.

Because in just 100 months' time, if we are lucky, and based on a quite conservative estimate, we could reach a tipping point for the beginnings of runaway climate change. That said, among people working on global warming, there are countless models, scenarios, and different iterations of all those models and scenarios. So, let us be clear from the outset about exactly what we mean.

So, how exactly do we arrive at the ticking clock of 100 months? It's possible to estimate the length of time it will take to reach a tipping point. To do so you combine current greenhouse gas concentrations with the best estimates for the rates at which emissions are growing, the maximum concentration of greenhouse gases allowable to forestall potentially irreversible changes to the climate system, and the effect of those environmental feedbacks. We followed the latest data and trends for carbon dioxide, then made allowances for all human interferences that influence temperatures, both those with warming and cooling effects. We followed the judgments of the mainstream climate science community, represented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), on what it will take to retain a good chance of not crossing the critical threshold of the Earth's average surface temperature rising by 2C above pre-industrial levels. We were cautious in several ways, optimistic even, and perhaps too much so. A rise of 2C may mask big problems that begin at a lower level of warming. For example, collapse of the Greenland ice sheet is more than likely to be triggered by a local warming of 2.7C, which could correspond to a global mean temperature increase of 2C or less. The disintegration of the Greenland ice sheet could correspond to a sea-level rise of up to 7 metres.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... nemissions

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '[')

<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2008/aug/01/climatechange.carbonemissions>

It doesn't mean that disaster will take place in 100 months. Rather, it refers to reaching a tipping point in around 100 months where we can no longer reverse the effects of climate change.

[onlooker]

Agree, with Planty and Ralfy, Collapse is not an event but a process. So, relax Outcast, we are not all crying out "The End is nigh" haha.

[mmasters]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '
')There is no doom. Maybe a generation or two out but not for us.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '
')
My take is the doom stuff is at least 30-50 years out in the US. Trump is starting to streamline the way things operate, lessen our dependency on other countries and that should hold us for a good 20 years. There so much natural gas and recycling of materials the natural resources picture should be fine for 20-30 years.

When the doom comes it will be the haves and the have nots. People that have made well for themselves and insulated themselves from the rest should be OK.

I think climate change is too complex to be fully understood at this time. There's too many feedback loops. It may be a serious problem or it may not be; it's a wild card.

[onlooker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '
')
My take is the doom stuff is at least 30-50 years out in the US. Trump is starting to streamline the way things operate, lessen our dependency on other countries and that should hold us for a good 20 years. There so much natural gas and recycling of materials the natural resources picture should be fine for 20-30 years.

When the doom comes it will be the haves and the have nots. People that have made well for themselves and insulated themselves from the rest should be OK.

I think climate change is too complex to be fully understood at this time. There's too many feedback loops. It may be a serious problem or it may not be; it's a wild card.

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')hey will be third world heck-holes post peak

[evilgenius]

I admit to having doomer tendencies. Part of that is just clean fun. And you always have to run the worst case scenario past yourself when you are thinking about the future. Who doesn't wrestle with where they think the world will be 12 months from now? You need to have some kind of understanding in order to plan. Beyond that, those whom I have known as real doomers, worse than me, have all been narcissists. They seem to need others to believe them, so that it amounts to those people going to the church of worshiping the doomers based upon adhering to the doomer's understanding of the world. I don't mean the people, like Alex Jones, who make a profit off of conspiracy. I mean those who most think that listening to people like him and parroting what he says somehow amounts to them having an original thought on any matter. They go about retelling half truths and whole cloth fabrications so that they can discover them as their own. They want to have something different enough to say so that they will garner attention. It doesn't have to be based upon anything, though. It's an echo chamber of the worst sort.

[onlooker]

What Evil states may be the case. But an equal if not greater bias exists. And that is simply the fear of a foreboding and terrible future. Fear can be an overwhelming emotion

[Cog]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'W')hat Evil states may be the case. But an equal if not greater bias exists. And that is simply the fear of a foreboding and terrible future. Fear can be an overwhelming emotion

[onlooker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'W')hat Evil states may be the case. But an equal if not greater bias exists. And that is simply the fear of a foreboding and terrible future. Fear can be an overwhelming emotion