$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') stand corrected. I had no idea so many large oil fields had been discovered in the last 20 years. But it still doesn't change my larger point. Not even a tiny bit.
Lets do some math to better understand this issue.
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THE ENERGY CLIFF APPROACHES
Re: THE ENERGY CLIFF APPROACHES
by rockdoc123 » Tue 03 Jul 2018, 15:40:45
well actually in the post I quoted from you had no "larger point". But irrespective of that looking at new discoveries (especially as of late where there has been very little in the way of exploration) alone in comparison to production is extremely misleading. There is a considerable amount of 2P and 3P reserves still not ranked as Proven and there are Resources which also will get upgraded to reserves and eventually 1P through increasing commodity price and improved technologies that can lower costs. As I said up thread IEA is suggesting about 3.9 trillion bbls remaining which gives close to 120 years of production at current consumption. But any projections made into the future require a number of other variables to be addressed at the same time including improved recovery factors in existing fields (as an example the last 20 or so years has seen the assumed average recovery factor from fields in Saudi Arabia double; and there is a lot of room for increasing recovery factor for unconventionals), replacement of oil as a fuel with EVs, natural gas and other renewables and the projected decrease in consumption in the latter part of the 20th century.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he rest, reserves (or reservoirs) that have not been produced are either considered worthless at any cost (for instance Green River shale} or not found. That latter hardly exist, as the planet has been explored mapped and extracted to the nth degree. Only a few more secret places are apt to be found. This is why we know about pre-salt in the Atlantic. It is under 20,000 feet of dense salt, rock and ocean. Yet we found it. There is little or nothing left. Kaiser, you can trust me
Where do you come up with this crap?
There are a lot of discovered fields that have yet to be commissioned and a lot of fields that are at the very early part of their production history. Cases in point:
Libra Field just came on stream in November of last year and there is 8 -12 billion bbls there according to various estimates. Lots of oil to be produced and lots of wells to drill
Johan Castberg Project offshore Norway is under construction with first oil expected in 2022, reserves estimated at 450 – 650 MMB
Clair Ridge, UK North Sea. Will be commissioned in 2018 and produce up to 120,000 bopd.
Hebron off East Coast Canada started production in November of last year and will peak somewhere at 100,000 bopd
Liza – offshore Guyana in the development stage. Production startup is scheduled for 2020 with rates in excess of 200,000 bopd from a 2 billion bbl estimated reserve
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Re: THE ENERGY CLIFF APPROACHES
by KaiserJeep » Tue 03 Jul 2018, 15:47:14
Pete, behind the Redwood Curtain is also a haven. Too bad there is not 30 miles of open ocean seperating you from Oregon, though.
Seriously, what all of you who think the constant refrain of DOOM are forgetting is that nature is not fair, and those that have more money have more security.
Life will get more difficult. But for Americans, perhaps not actually impossible for as long as another century. By that time, there will be a number of solutions in place. Perhaps the largest: technology will have produced another three generations of energy-efficient devices. I told you, we have the tech today to run the USA with our precious lifestyles more or less intact on 1/6the the energy we use today. We have an infrastructure problem today, with residences and workplaces and a transport system that are all relics of the age of cheap FF energy. We'll get over that in a few decades, and then do the same thing again before truly energy-efficient tech is the rule not the exception.
Americans will be among the survivors.
Seriously, what all of you who think the constant refrain of DOOM are forgetting is that nature is not fair, and those that have more money have more security.
Life will get more difficult. But for Americans, perhaps not actually impossible for as long as another century. By that time, there will be a number of solutions in place. Perhaps the largest: technology will have produced another three generations of energy-efficient devices. I told you, we have the tech today to run the USA with our precious lifestyles more or less intact on 1/6the the energy we use today. We have an infrastructure problem today, with residences and workplaces and a transport system that are all relics of the age of cheap FF energy. We'll get over that in a few decades, and then do the same thing again before truly energy-efficient tech is the rule not the exception.
Americans will be among the survivors.
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Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.
Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.
Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
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Re: THE ENERGY CLIFF APPROACHES
by rockdoc123 » Tue 03 Jul 2018, 16:38:23
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')our post conflates daily production with estimated reserves. There is no way to aggregate the data into a meaningful idea and response. But given as I am up to the job;
My post wasn’t meant to give individual values for reserves yet to be produced from fields or the rates (which I could do but is not needed here)….it was merely meant to demonstrate that your comment “The rest, reserves (or reservoirs) that have not been produced are either considered worthless at any cost (for instance Green River shale} or not found” merely demonstrates you have no idea of what fields are still sitting out there that will be produced in the very near future. You pull your ideas out of the air with zero support.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he total maximum estimated reserves of 14.65 billion barrels accounts for less than 6 months global consumption. Given that new oil extraction is a decade long event, I hardly see how these estimated reserves (almost always downgraded) will make a hill of beans. The daily production figures are also inconsequencial as they too are estimated and amount to a fraction of the daily production that is lost to the global post-peak field declines
Once again you haven’t a clue, no idea what 14.65 billion bbls you are talking about. Libra just came on stream, Johan Castberg on stream in 2022, Clair Ridge this year, Liza in two years time. And that ignores discoveries made in Mexico and offshore Guyana recently which will be producing well before a decades time. This is new production which demonstrates fields which have been discovered and not yet produced are not “worthless at any cost” as you suggest. Far from it.
As to the production being inconsequential, I haven’t outlined all of what is coming on stream. The very fact that global production has increased steadily year on year since 1998 illustrates there is less of a problem with decline rates and replacement of Proved Producing reserves than you suggest.
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This isn't something new and it isn't something that is even debated anymore in the industry.
