by Outcast_Searcher » Fri 25 May 2018, 12:37:17
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'A')s long as the interest on the debt can be serviced(paid) then there is no problem.
As of 2017 the interest on the debt was $263 billion or 6.8% of the federal budget
Yup, and what the "debt will kill us all real soon now" folks don't seem to get is what likely happens if interest rates rise meaningfully due to higher inflation. The interest payments on the debt that rolls over rise, sure. But the value of ALL the debt falls with the inflation. So there's a lot of balancing that goes on, for relatively trustworthy currencies. (Like the US dollar, whether the fast crash doomers like it or not).
So what's bad is if the debt gets very big compared to the size of the economy in debt.
But for that to happen, the debt has to grow meaningfully faster than the economy for a long time.
So it's debt to GDP that matters, and that's rising, ballpark in the range of 1% a year in the US. That's a meaningful problem in the longer term, but 7% or even 15% interest burden isn't going to collapse the economy. Historically, things have tended to get out of hand in the ballpark of an interest burden that's 40% or more of the economy.
Japan has a government debt to GDP ratio of over 236%, yet they're doing OK. The US is in 14th place at under 108%. Nothing to brag about but NOT short term catastrophe territory either.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... ublic_debt
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.