[MicroHydro]

Sweet light peaked in Spring 2004, the Saudis covered it up by mixing more heavy sour into their export oil.

[ShawnAvery]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Badger', '2')008 will probably show the planet peaked back in 2000 but its the tech and fudged numbers that will come under scrutinity as time goes on.

Plus as stated the mega projects will also help to fudge the numbers some more...remember ENRON they kept there game going quite a while.

corporations are masters at bullshitting with many talking heads...

[Daculling]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('linlithgowoil', 'i') dont think we'll peak until another couple of years - going by the megaprojects update. there is too many projects coming online for us to peak now. we'd peak now if ghawar collapsed, but not in any other case.

i still say end 2007 to mid 2008 is the peak.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MicroHydro', 'S')weet light peaked in Spring 2004, the Saudis covered it up by mixing more heavy sour into their export oil.

[savethehumans]

Good analogy, cube!

Yeah, oil (especially the "sweet" kind) HAS peaked. This emphasis on the date is distracting us from the really important thing: preparing/adjusting to the realities of a post-peak world.

Sheeple (and us, too!) really, really, REALLY can't conceive of how bad things are gonna be, and how fast they will get there. . .they (and we) have NO frame of reference for something as bad as post-peak collapse. Not the Depression, not WWII, not ANYTHING!

Thus, it is easier to have chats over coffee (or lunch) over a date. A date is something that is graspable. The aftermath of the date is not.

[shady28]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cynus', 'I')t's only 126 days until Deffeyes' predicted date. I didn't read his book, but I was wondering if anyone can say if his numbers are still on target, or have they already been proved wrong?

[Jdelagado]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cynus', 'I')t's only 126 days until Deffeyes' predicted date. I didn't read his book, but I was wondering if anyone can say if his numbers are still on target, or have they already been proved wrong?

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jdelagado', '
')Deffeye's won't be eating turkey for Thanksgiving; he'll be EATING CROW!

[Leanan]

I think the key will be depletion rates. There will be big projects coming online by 2008. The question is, can they make up for the depletion of the aging giants? Deffeyes seems to think they can't.

[BrownDog]

I think this illustrates a major misunderstanding of the issue, to try to say that a singular date can be predicted. I don't think that Deffeyes or Hubbert [not Hubbell] for that matter were trying to make claims about a single point being the key issue of Peak Oil, or even that it could be predicted. It is more about the idea that production will grow, generally, but for various reasons will eventually not be able to keep up with demand and begin to decline.

Emphasizing a single date seems to be a straw man argument to discredit the whole idea based on a rather insignificant singular date. By that I mean that people say "peak oil has been predicted and been incorrect before", which is true. But that doesn't show that peak oil will not occur, it only shows that accurate data is hard to come by. Focusing on the date is, to me, missing the point.

[edited to fix result of leaky brain pan]

[BrownDog]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jdelagado', '
')Deffeye's won't be eating turkey for Thanksgiving; he'll be EATING CROW!

[Leanan]

I doubt Deffeyes will eating crow on Thanksgiving. Even if he's wrong, no one will know it until well after Turkey Day.

[Daculling]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BrownDog', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jdelagado', '
')Deffeye's won't be eating turkey for Thanksgiving; he'll be EATING CROW!

[Jdelagado]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'I') doubt Deffeyes will eating crow on Thanksgiving. Even if he's wrong, no one will know it until well after Turkey Day.

[ubercrap]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BrownDog', 'I') think this illustrates a major misunderstanding of the issue, to try to say that a singular date can be predicted. I don't think that Deffeyes or Hubbell for that matter were trying to make claims about a single point being the key issue of Peak Oil, or even that it could be predicted. It is more about the idea that production will grow, generally, but for various reasons will eventually not be able to keep up with demand and begin to decline.

Emphasizing a single date seems to be a straw man argument to discredit the whole idea based on a rather insignificant singular date. By that I mean that people say "peak oil has been predicted and been incorrect before", which is true. But that doesn't show that peak oil will not occur, it only shows that accurate data is hard to come by. Focusing on the date is, to me, missing the point.

[seahorse]

jdelagado,

I think the April 2005 EIA report estimating world oil production exceeding world oil demand in the 4th quarter of this year gives Deffeyes PO prediction a little outside credibility. By saying he will eat crow, before we know, leaves you in vulnerable to eat crow. I don't know, but the inherent risk of predicting anything, whether its PO or someone eating crow, means the predictor will be a hero or eat crow. Better just wait and see, Thanksgivings not that far off.

[Jdelagado]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', 'j')delagado,

I think the April 2005 EIA report estimating world oil production exceeding world oil demand in the 4th quarter of this year gives Deffeyes PO prediction a little outside credibility. By saying he will eat crow, before we know, leaves you in vulnerable to eat crow. I don't know, but the inherent risk of predicting anything, whether its PO or someone eating crow, means the predictor will be a hero or eat crow. Better just wait and see, Thanksgivings not that far off.

[Ardalla]

Heh, talking about the obscurity of 'eating crow', I was talking at work yesterday about Steve McQueen and Natalie Woods, and a woman said "Who is that?". The woman was 55 years old. I finally found someone she had heard of: John Wayne. People live in very different worlds.

[jdmartin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ardalla', 'D')effeyes should not have made that prediction. The media does not have a sense of humor. If it doesn't pan out people will be asking why they should take him seriously anymore when he was wrong about the peak date. Remember Dukakis and the tank? Teddy and the bridge? Gary Hart and the girl on his lap photo?

Well, I never did think Gore was wooden. Seemed pretty animated to me.