[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'l')ocal clay? Hahahahaha! You say the funniest things.

If you're after cheap proppant then the cheapest ceramic proppant comes from China! Its manufactured in CHINA using CHINESE CLAY and then SHIPPED SIX THOUSAND MILES ACROSS THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND THROUGH THE PANAMA CANEL TO THE US. Even after all that shipping Chinese proppant is undercutting Carbo Ceramics----the main US manufacturer.

[Tanada]

This does raise the question of just how much fracking are the Chinese doing in their own territories?

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his does raise the question of just how much fracking are the Chinese doing in their own territories?

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'w')hat is being postulated is that by using a source immediately proximal to on-going fracking the cost for ceramic propant drops considerably.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hats the SECOND time I've had to explain this simple idea to you.

Its a very simple concept. Chinese proppant is cheaper then US proppant

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '
')No one was talking about the situation at this minute but rather in the future.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') didn't realize you' were a time traveller from the future.

Its very kind of you to share with us all your knowledge of what will happen in the future.

[tita]

I think it's clear that operators increased substantially the initial rate of LTO wells using various techniques (proppants and longer lateral among them). The average IR of a 2017 well can be 50% to 100% higher than 2014. This alone can explain how operators could sustain production with fewer rigs (outside the permian). But it still short to explain the surge in the last months of 2017.

What if operators could sustain initial rates a little bit longer? We know the production rate of LTO wells reach a peak at the first full month of production before depleting in an exponential way. But if you could delay the depletion to the second or third full month of production, you get an instant production surge, as new wells just add production instead of replacing production from legacy wells. This also means that, along with higher IR, you recover the oil in place faster. But if the UOR stays the same, this also means that depletion is also steeper when it begins.

This appears to be what happened in the Bakken:


Of course, this should be taken with caution. Another issue is about the performance of new wells when you take out the benefits of the costlier techniques used to improve initial rates, in this article:
https://www.spe.org/en/jpt/jpt-article-detail/?art=3832

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut if the UOR stays the same, this also means that depletion is also steeper when it begins.

[peakoilwhen]

>Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020
>Permian

False premise : oil is fossil from ancient Earth.
Wrong assertion : there will be a geo-peak

wrong idea leads to a wrong prediction. Oil is not cretacious, permian, triassic or jurassic or any other age other than recent. Like within the last 10 million years, a lot will be less than a million years old. It seeps out the mantle into the crust and then decomposes.

[tita]

Quite an interesting skeptic on current forecasts of shale, Mark Papa, former CEO "EOG" and current CEO of "centennial":
https://www.wsj.com/articles/shale-trai ... 1520257595

Forecasts like the one from IEA that see a US production growth of 3.8 mb/d till 2023, only from shale oil and LNG (shale gas).


Which place the US as the major supply growth in the next 5 years:


Yeah, forecasts... this one looks like it stretched last year trend over the next five years, with some adjustments to stick to the forecasted demand.

At the same time, the IEA warn about underinvestment and depletion:
“But as we’ve highlighted repeatedly, the weak global investment picture remains a source of concern. More investments will be needed to make up for declining oil fields – the world needs to replace 3 mb/d of declines each year, the equivalent of the North Sea – while also meeting robust demand growth.”

With even the word "peak" inside one of the slides:

[Plantagenet]

A new chokepoint has developed that is slowing the development of the remaining Permian oil---there's more natural gas mixed in with the oil then anticipated.

a-choke-point-in-the-permian

As the best acreage in the Permian is used up, the remaining oil shale is lower quality and just isn't as prolific in oil production. Here's a sign of that----the amount of NG being produced is going up in current wells and the amount of oil is going down.

It doesn't mean Peak Permian is happening now....but it does mean continuing to grow oil production in the Permian is getting harder and harder. And when oil production stops growing, that will be PEAK PERMIAN.

Cheers!

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')It doesn't mean Peak Permian is happening now....but it does mean continuing to grow oil production in the Permian is getting harder and harder. And when oil production stops growing, that will be PEAK PERMIAN.

Cheers!

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')It doesn't mean Peak Permian is happening now....but it does mean continuing to grow oil production in the Permian is getting harder and harder. And when oil production stops growing, that will be PEAK PERMIAN.

Cheers!

[tita]

Something maybe overlooked in the forecasted growth of US oil production, especially in the Permian, is the infrastructure needed. It's not only the pipelines or the drilling rigs, but also basically trucks to move the huge amount of sands and water needed in the fracking stage, and the roads for these trucks. Rystad Energy raise concerns on these issues.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/A ... Shale.html
https://communications.rystadenergy.com ... :C5ViiKCsI

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tita', 'S')omething maybe overlooked in the forecasted growth of US oil production, especially in the Permian, is the infrastructure needed. It's not only the pipelines or the drilling rigs, but also basically trucks to move the huge amount of sands and water needed in the fracking stage, and the roads for these trucks. Rystad Energy raise concerns on these issues.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/A ... Shale.html
https://communications.rystadenergy.com ... :C5ViiKCsI

[Darian S]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tita', 'S')omething maybe overlooked in the forecasted growth of US oil production, especially in the Permian, is the infrastructure needed. It's not only the pipelines or the drilling rigs, but also basically trucks to move the huge amount of sands and water needed in the fracking stage, and the roads for these trucks. Rystad Energy raise concerns on these issues.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/A ... Shale.html
https://communications.rystadenergy.com ... :C5ViiKCsI

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Darian S', 'T')he rumor is the economy cannot handle significantly higher prices. Word is that will result in demand destruction, so price cannot get too high, and cannot remain at a too high a level for indefinite periods either.

[Darian S]

At least china has artificially massaged their economy. And from what I hear debt has been skyrocketing globally in the recent past.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')lobal debt has grown by $57 trillion in seven years following the financial crisis

Global debt has increased by $57 trillion in the seven years following the financial crisis, according to a new report, while China’s debt as a share of GDP now stands at higher than that of the US-theguardian

[ROCKMAN]

Darian - "You can temporarily increase demand for a short while by borrowing against the future, but it is unsustainable." And thus the perpetual problem of using short term trends (a year or 3) to predict long term trends (5 to 10 years). The lag times are just to difficult to factor into the dynamics.