[Carrie]

I saw that intervew too. They had a whole special segment called "Itching for Oil". They also mentioned that this will probably lead to conflict with China. I heard a commercial about the segment, so I managed to record it on dvd. Not sure what the copyright issues are, but maybe I could upload it.

[stu]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'S')o Deffeyes is still predicting peak oil on Thanksgiving Day this year?

[Leanan]

Oh, I know he doesn't mean peak oil will be, say, the moment the Dallas-Denver Thanksgiving Day football game kicks off.

But predicting it will be this year, not 2008, not 2015, and not last fall - that's what I meant.

[stu]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'O')h, I know he doesn't mean peak oil will be, say, the moment the Dallas-Denver Thanksgiving Day football game kicks off.

But predicting it will be this year, not 2008, not 2015, and not last fall - that's what I meant.

[MonteQuest]

Audio interview with Jim Puplava.

http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm

[OilsNotWell]

Just finished listening to it. Very interesting and worth the time.

One headline is that he still believes peak will be Thanksgiving Day, 2005 (actually, he said +/- 3 wks, but said Thanksgiving just to irk the economists!)

Another point is that he has read a galley proof of Matthew Simmons book, and he believes that Mr. Simmons, in reference to his analysis of Saudi fields and the incongruity of Saudi claims, "has got 'em." Simmons also believe peak is this year, peak is now. Deffeyes cautioned about price volatility however.

Lots of pearls of wisdom,insight, and humor from this fine Okie oil man amd Stanford prof.

I especially liked how he described how shale oil is, and will always be, uneconomical. For example, he recalls when oil was at $3/barrel, how if oil ever got to $5/barrel, shale oil in CO will clean up, and of course, the price at which shale oil becomes economic is always slightly above where it currently is. He relates the comment that: "shale is the energy of the future, and always will be."

Other items too numerous to mention.

[EnemyCombatant]

Which interview is it?

Has anyone read The Day After Tomorrow?

It's very long, but very educatonal if you want to understand the economy and markets.

[heyhoser]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilsNotWell', ' ')He relates the comment that: "shale is the energy of the future, and always will be."

[Aaron]

Or hear it here:

http://www.peakoil.com/gate.html?name=zina

#1

[qwanta]

Thanks for posting this. I just discovered the financialsense radio program last week. It's interesting because Jim Puplava covers both the peak oil angle and the financial bubble economy; he's one of the only persons to do that.

Anyway, if you check the radio program archive there are also interviews from last year with Richard Heinberg, Michael Klare, Stephen Leeb, Julian Darley, Ronald Cooke ("Oil, Jihad and Destiny"), Paul Roberts ("The End of Oil").

http://www.financialsense.com/asktheexpert/2004.html

[EnemyCombatant]

Thanks qwanta.
That's a big help.

[clv101]

Good spot. Good to here from someone who has actually read Matt Simmons elusive Saudi Arabia book!

[Cynus]

It's only 126 days until Deffeyes' predicted date. I didn't read his book, but I was wondering if anyone can say if his numbers are still on target, or have they already been proved wrong?

[linlithgowoil]

i dont think we'll peak until another couple of years - going by the megaprojects update. there is too many projects coming online for us to peak now. we'd peak now if ghawar collapsed, but not in any other case.

i still say end 2007 to mid 2008 is the peak.

[Carlhole]

That was a tongue-in-cheek prediction Deffeyes made about PO arriving on Thanksgiving 2005. The peak could have a bumpy plateau for a few years and we would not necessarily know during that time that a peak had been reached.

All Deffeyes was saying was that PO is coming pretty damn soon. Pretty damn soon in PO terms is, like, give or take 5 years. No one really knows.
If it were even somewhat certain, the markets would factor all that into the price of oil right away. If traders, for example, were reasonably certain that a barrel of oil would cost $150 two years from now, then the price would immediately rise NOW to reflect that expectation.

This is because any owner of an oil field would choose to leave the oil in the ground if he thought it would cost $150 in two years. And if many oil field owners chose to leave the oil in the ground based on that expectation, oil would become scarce immediately and the price would rise to reflect expectations.

Just because economics is in disfavor within the PO community doesn't mean you can entirely ignore it.

[Such]

yeah... it's a tongue in cheek date.

he might be right if we think about sustainable production capacity... how long can we push 85+ million barrels a day? 5 years? 10 years? 15 years? 20 years?

[Ardalla]

Deffeyes should not have made that prediction. The media does not have a sense of humor. If it doesn't pan out people will be asking why they should take him seriously anymore when he was wrong about the peak date. Remember Dukakis and the tank? Teddy and the bridge? Gary Hart and the girl on his lap photo?

Well, I never did think Gore was wooden. Seemed pretty animated to me.

[Cynus]

Yes, the exact day was tongue in cheek, but he seriously believes that the peak will happen late this yeart or early next year. In the op-ed article he wrote for the New York Times he writes "my own independent research places the peak of world oil production late this year or early in 2006." I figure his book must give statistics that lead him to this conclusion and I was wondering if they are holding up.

[Badger]

2008 will probably show the planet peaked back in 2000 but its the tech and fudged numbers that will come under scrutinity as time goes on.

Plus as stated the mega projects will also help to fudge the numbers some more...remember ENRON they kept there game going quite a while.

corporations are masters at bullshitting with many talking heads...

[Cyrus]

I'm not sure about the peak date; but I'm sure, we will see some problems before the end of the year; whether it be economical, geological, or environmental.