[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'P')eak demand may happen some day, but for now it appears fossil fuels are still going to dominate for another decade, possibly two if we can find enough.
Tony Seba says 2020, Amy Jaffe supports the idea in general but hasn't predicted when, and I've seen other estimates running as late as the 2030's or so. The EIA doesn't support the idea within their most current IEO, and we all know how conservative they are, but also how smart in not falling for peak oil like the amatuers.

My personal thought is that the answer doesn't matter any more than peak oil did, because we are talking about a multi-variate system. Both can happen, they can happen at the same time, and they can both happen without anybody being bothered at all...all depending on the relationship between supply and demand.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
') Substitution is all well and good, but every day fossil is cheaper than the substitute is another day the transition will be delayed.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
') Substitution is all well and good, but every day fossil is cheaper than the substitute is another day the transition will be delayed.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
') Substitution is all well and good, but every day fossil is cheaper than the substitute is another day the transition will be delayed.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')
People aren't going to choose to DIE because fuel gets expensive VT. They'll bitch...same as they did during the real energy crisis of the 1970's, same as they did during the faux peak oil of a decade ago. Some will walk, some will blame big oil and sell their house to keep driving their Suburban, and so on and so forth.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')
People aren't going to choose to DIE because fuel gets expensive VT. They'll bitch...same as they did during the real energy crisis of the 1970's, same as they did during the faux peak oil of a decade ago. Some will walk, some will blame big oil and sell their house to keep driving their Suburban, and so on and so forth.

[vtsnowedin]

There has been no previous "peak oil". Panics and speculation yes, but a real peak in world consumption or production? No!
I'm talking about what will happen ,and it eventually will,when world production goes down and does not increase after the price increases to force demand down to meet supply.
All that has gone before will not apply so your confidence in BAU is misplaced.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')
Nearly a decade ago, I talked about the concept of “peak oil.” Simply put, this theory states that global oil production will hit a maximum level before declining. When oil prices hit a record high of $147 a barrel in July 2008, many analysts focused on the supply-demand equation and the topic of peak oil. Back then, peak oil pertained to supply. People saw out-of-control global demand as a sign that the supply would peak… before it would run completely dry. But then the introduction of hydraulic fracking and horizontal drilling blew the peak oil argument right out of the picture. So much new supply has been developed over the last decade due to fracking, and the U.S. is now the world’s top crude producer. Fast-forward to 2018. The introduction of electric vehicles is close to its tipping point. When that happens, EVs will quickly

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')
Nearly a decade ago, I talked about the concept of “peak oil.” Simply put, this theory states that global oil production will hit a maximum level before declining. When oil prices hit a record high of $147 a barrel in July 2008, many analysts focused on the supply-demand equation and the topic of peak oil. Back then, peak oil pertained to supply. People saw out-of-control global demand as a sign that the supply would peak… before it would run completely dry. But then the introduction of hydraulic fracking and horizontal drilling blew the peak oil argument right out of the picture. So much new supply has been developed over the last decade due to fracking, and the U.S. is now the world’s top crude producer. Fast-forward to 2018. The introduction of electric vehicles is close to its tipping point. When that happens, EVs will quickly

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')
Nearly a decade ago, I talked about the concept of “peak oil.” Simply put, this theory states that global oil production will hit a maximum level before declining. When oil prices hit a record high of $147 a barrel in July 2008, many analysts focused on the supply-demand equation and the topic of peak oil. Back then, peak oil pertained to supply. People saw out-of-control global demand as a sign that the supply would peak… before it would run completely dry. But then the introduction of hydraulic fracking and horizontal drilling blew the peak oil argument right out of the picture. So much new supply has been developed over the last decade due to fracking, and the U.S. is now the world’s top crude producer. Fast-forward to 2018. The introduction of electric vehicles is close to its tipping point. When that happens, EVs will quickly

[vtsnowedin]

Look at the facts.
Last year world auto sales of light vehicles amounted to 93.5 million units and a growth of 1.5% over the previous year or 1.4 million units. BEV (battery only electric cars) are expected to top 400,000 units in 2018 but that counts on Tesla getting up to 150,000 units which today seems doubtful. If they achieve 400K then double that in 2019 to 800K then again to 1.6 million units in 2020 they will just then have matched the yearly growth in auto sales. Meanwhile ICE sales for the three years will be a cumulative 280 million units. This year there will be one million BEVs in service, ."If these rosy projections hold up by 2020 (assuming no losses) there will be 3.8 million just 0.4 percent of the 950 million passenger vehicles in use in the world.
http://news.ihsmarkit.com/press-release ... arkit-says

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'L')ook at the facts.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'L')ook at the facts.

[ROCKMAN]

"...now that I've got a Tesla owning next door neighbor..." That's great. And in my lower middle class neighborhood during the last year or so I've seen no less then 5 new four-door pickups being pushed by V8's. But, then again, I live in a Texas refinery town. LOL.

BTW in 2017 Ford alone sold 900,000 full size pickups. And how many EV's were bought here last year?