[ROCKMAN]

Adam - "Are you saying you don't want to claim SOME of the credit for the US becoming the world's largest natural producer, " No...no credit at all. Which is why I would have no problem accepting anyone's estimate of XXX billions of bbls ofvproven oil reserves or be equally satisfied in accepting someone else's estimate of 10% of those XXX billion bbls of proven oil reserves.

Honestly, I really don't care how much proven oil is or isn't out there in Texas, the USA or the entire world. That's exactly what I mean when I say I don't have a dog in the fight. Which also doesn't automatically mean I'm correct. Just means I'm not motivated to come up with either an optimistic or pessimistic answer. Because I REALLY, REALLY DON'T CARE WHAT THE ANSWER IS just as long as it's based on solid evidence. Really, all I care about is how much oil I find and the profit margin. As I've said numerous times: we in the oil patch are not a band of brothers. I don't care in the least if XOM or any other company dries up and disappears. Nor do I care if our citizens have enough affordable energy in the future. I'm not responsible for either situation... those are someone else's problems. I take care of my problems. Others need to fix theirs.

I'm not my brother's keeper. Especially if he doesn't understand what he's doing and f*cks up his life as a result. LOL.

BTW: mentioning the name of a formation in the Permian Basin (or anywherer erlse, for that matter) doesn't prove sh*t about reserve potential. Show me the maps, proposed well locations, economic analysis including cost and oil prices, detailed spacial reservoir analysis and then we'll have something to discuss. This he said/she said bullish*t is wasting everyone's time. I've worked four decades in a world populated with detailed data...not hyperbole. LOL.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow can you be sure this environment is not a dearth, a lack of demand?

[PeakOiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')es, I saw the TRC's website and also posted the link above, but TRC gives annual amounts, not monthly rates like the EIA gives in the reference in the OP.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', '
')BTW: mentioning the name of a formation in the Permian Basin (or anywherer erlse, for that matter) doesn't prove sh*t about reserve potential. Show me the maps, proposed well locations, economic analysis including cost and oil prices, detailed spacial reservoir analysis and then we'll have something to discuss. This he said/she said bullish*t is wasting everyone's time. I've worked four decades in a world populated with detailed data...not hyperbole. LOL.

[PeakOiler]

Updated graph with data through May:

[PeakOiler]

Updated graph with data through July 2016:

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')
A Guest Post by Guy Minton (Details for the chart above are explained in the post.) The Texas Railroad Commission (RRC) had the oil and gas production reported online in early 2005, and became fully online for producers and the public on Feb 14, 2005. At the time it was set up, it required the producers to input their production in the production file for existing approved leases, and in the pending lease data file for those leases which have not yet received an approved lease number by the RRC. Each month, the RRC only reports the oil and condensate that is currently updated that month which is in the production file. Historically, the production did not seem to be completely reported. The lag time to near full reporting of RRC production went from almost 18 months, down to about nine months within

[copious.abundance]

Updated graph with data through December 2017.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', 'U')pdated graph with data through December 2017.

[coffeeguyzz]

QEP Resources has a pretty good explanation (along with some graphics) in their 3 and 4 quarter investor relations prentations describing how they are using the elevated pressure from frac'd but not producing wells to buffer wells from inter well interference as they downspacing in the Permian.
The added 2/3thousand psi is also assisting oil production.

This explains why the recent Bakken numbers have been so high along with huge amounts of produced water.
These operators are continuing to innovate.
People who simply look at historical production charts to make future projections continue to get it all wrong.

[vtsnowedin]

Here is a prediction today from an industry insider.
http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/57484578 ... show-clips
He says the shale oil fields will reach "maturation" and growth in production will be at the lower end of the predictions that are out there.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ere is a prediction today from an industry insider.

[StarvingLion]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eople who simply look at historical production charts to make future projections continue to get it all wrong.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ere is a prediction today from an industry insider.

[tita]

Yeah, Mark Papa... former CEO of EOG, actual CEO of Centennial.

For those who prefer to read, instead of listening "Fux News":
https://t.co/pdvQKsWFT7

And yes, he has interests in the Permian shale. So his judgment about US shale may be biased. But he is also 70 yo, not a young shark in the oil industry. Basically, he's the guy who Art Berman refer when he says that shale is the retirement party.

Something he said last year:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')oing forward, the Permian, which is made of up many pancaked layers of oil-soaked rock in West Texas and New Mexico, will see the greatest leaps in well improvements over the next four to five years, Papa said in the Bloomberg interview.

"You’re going from only round 1 to round 2 of technology applications" in the Permian, he said. "Whereas in the Bakken, you’re going from round 5 to round 6. Maybe in the Eagle Ford, you’re going from Round 3 to Round 4 in waves of technology improvements."

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tita', '
')For those who prefer to read, instead of listening "Fux News":

[tita]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
')So you think Rachel Maddow is a better news source while she spends half a show going on on Trump sending an invitation to Putin to attend the Miss Universe pageant when Russia hosted the show? Or perhaps you only read the NYT or the Washington Post and swallow everything they feed you without a grain of salt.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tita', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
')So you think Rachel Maddow is a better news source while she spends half a show going on on Trump sending an invitation to Putin to attend the Miss Universe pageant when Russia hosted the show? Or perhaps you only read the NYT or the Washington Post and swallow everything they feed you without a grain of salt.

[ROCKMAN]

"Yeah, Mark Papa... former CEO of EOG, actual CEO of Centennial." Mr. Papa is actually REQUIRED by the federal govt (SEC regulations) to promote the value of his company. But he cannot lie or present incorrect data. But he can offer whatever UNQUANTIFIED optimism he choses as long as he doesn't violate the SEC rules. The rocdoc, Rockman, coffeeman, Ms. Maddow et al are free to agree or disagree with any opinions Mr. Papa tosses out.