PeakOil is You
Multiple Peaks (split from EIA confirms 2005 Peak)
Re: Multiple Peaks (split from EIA confirms 2005 Peak)
by ralfy » Mon 19 Feb 2018, 23:57:50
More like 30+ years post-peak.
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Re: Multiple Peaks (split from EIA confirms 2005 Peak)
by tita » Tue 20 Feb 2018, 07:03:50
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'Y')ou never know how many of the Happy McPeaksters are left until..you know...you ask a question and see if they are too embarrassed by their oil ignorance to show up and answer. Or not.
Well, maybe AirlinePilot, who make some appearance from time to time... But mcgo was last seen 6 years ago. And anyway, what we thought 9 years ago changed a lot.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')esides, the title to this thread is important, you see, the US has since demonstrated the sine wave function of oil production, and I am working my way through this thread to see if someone knew it could happen before it did. Because then not only would I not be originator of the idea, but someone might have actually figured this out, right here on this forum, before it actually happened. And you can't find any peak oiler here who managed that, so it is quite the anomaly.
The global oil demand doesn't follow a sine wave function... It's more like straight growth. There was like two visible decrease in the last 40 years...
But yeah the idea of multiple peaks in production is indeed real. Either because geopolitical events like in Russia. Or in the case of the US for technological and economical events. Not exactly sine-wave function anyway.
The sine-wave function can only happen if the global supply-demand of oil reach some plateau, and then oscillate around some rate level. Both from demand and supply unable to set a balanced price for both to grow. This would put some real stress on the global economy, as the price would be volatile.
We are not in such situation. Both global supply and demand are growing
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Re: Multiple Peaks (split from EIA confirms 2005 Peak)
by ROCKMAN » Tue 20 Feb 2018, 13:24:29
It's amazing how many charts of US oil production show almost nothing before 1900. PA had its boom around 1865. In fact: At the peak of the oil boom, Pennsylvania wells were producing one third of the world’s oil. At one point PA was doing about 4 mm bbls/yr. But that's just a guess since no official records were kept.
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Re: Multiple Peaks (split from EIA confirms 2005 Peak)
by asg70 » Tue 20 Feb 2018, 13:33:15
This is a naive question but what was petroleum being used for prior to the automobile? I know kerosene was used in lamps and whale-oil but what else?
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Re: Multiple Peaks (split from EIA confirms 2005 Peak)
by KaiserJeep » Tue 20 Feb 2018, 13:53:07
Although natural petroleum seeps were used to a certain extent for waterproofing rope and twine and the like with viscous tar, there was no use for natural petroleum as a fuel until kerosene replaced whale oil lamp fuel and candles made from tallow.
In fact, the seeping of petroleum from the ground was regarded as a disastrous misfortune for the land owner.
In fact, the seeping of petroleum from the ground was regarded as a disastrous misfortune for the land owner.
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Re: Multiple Peaks (split from EIA confirms 2005 Peak)
by Plantagenet » Tue 20 Feb 2018, 14:13:59
The oil biz has always been about booms and busts----with each new major oil discovery igniting a boom that ended with oversupply and a bust. Its been going on for over a century.
The latest oil boom is in TOS in the USA. No doubt it will be followed by another bust.
Then we'll have to wait and see where and what the next oil boom is.....
Cheers!
The latest oil boom is in TOS in the USA. No doubt it will be followed by another bust.
Then we'll have to wait and see where and what the next oil boom is.....
Cheers!
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Re: Multiple Peaks (split from EIA confirms 2005 Peak)
by Outcast_Searcher » Tue 20 Feb 2018, 14:29:10
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tita', '
')The global oil demand doesn't follow a sine wave function... It's more like straight growth. There was like two visible decrease in the last 40 years...
')The global oil demand doesn't follow a sine wave function... It's more like straight growth. There was like two visible decrease in the last 40 years...
Yup. Thus far, global oil demand corresponds very strongly to global economic activity. Since that's growing almost every year, the total demand for oil continues along with it.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tita', '
')The sine-wave function can only happen if the global supply-demand of oil reach some plateau, and then oscillate around some rate level. Both from demand and supply unable to set a balanced price for both to grow. This would put some real stress on the global economy, as the price would be volatile.
We are not in such situation. Both global supply and demand are growing
Yup. We can only hope (since neither governments nor voters are going to force or even incent change via intelligent tax incentives like a moderate and growing CO2 tax) that the move to BEV's and even PHEV's and efficient HEV's in the coming few decades will flatten and then decrease the demand for oil.
Perhaps the impacts of AGW becoming worse / blindingly obvious to all but the most obstinate deniers, will help, especially if EV's become as easy to use day to day as ICE's, but are cheaper to own, maintain, and keep reliable for a long time. (Not forecasting in the robotic taxi displacing the private car, as I think there's far too much "Musk-like" hype in them taking over very quickly. It may well happen, but it could be several decades.)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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