[Yoshua]

"So long as oil is used as a source of energy, when
the energy cost of recovering a barrel of oil becomes
greater than the energy content of the oil, production
will cease no matter what the monetary price may
be.” (M. King Hubbert)

[marmico]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'h')e used Pratts number along with an estimate of what had already been produced to arrive at the 375 billion barrel figure.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', ' ')dipshit

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's Hubbert's URR incorporated by reference to Pratt's 200 gigabarrels estimate plus the addition of 175 gigabarrels for a total estimate of 375 gigabarrels. Hubbert's Persian Gulf estimate is a spectacular failure.

[Tanada]

Alright you two, enough with the cutesy name calling and cursing, keep it up and you will both get a day off to cool down.

[ROCKMAN]

Yoshua - "...when the energy cost of recovering a barrel of oil becomes greater than the energy content of the oil, production will cease no matter what the monetary price may be.” As explained many, many times before that condition will never be reached. But that concept fits with the huge overestimate of the amount of oil (actually diesel) used to drill and produce a well. Typically the total cost of the fuel component is less then 10% of the total well cost. IOW it's when the total cost of the wells become greater then the revenue (including profit margin) from the wells oil development will cease. IOW economic limitations will prevent the EROEI from becoming much less the 6.

Which is also why EROEI does not necessarily decrease over time. In fact in can (and has) increased over time. When oil prices boomed about 10 years ago it took fewer net bbls for a prospect to be economically worth drilling. IOW the EROEI decreased significantly. But could still not drop much below 6. In fact given how much the price of frac'd shale wells eventually increased the minimum EROEI of such projects might have gotten as high as 8 or 10 despite very high oil prices. IOW it took a lot of bbls (even at $90/bbl) to justify drilling and completing a $12 million well. But when oil prices fell it took at least twice as many net bbls to be justified as economic. Perhaps 2X to 3X the EROEI was reached at the low point of oil prices.

The same is true for the refining sector. Some still think a large amount of the energy contained in crude oil is lost during the refining process. In reality an insignificant amount of Btu's are lost. Oil refining separates the components in the crude into different products. The process does not consume them. Essentially those products contain the same total Btu's as the original crude oil. Not sure how one would calculate the EROEI of a refined bbl of oil since almost no oil Btu's are lost.

But the refining process does consume a significant amount of energy. But that energy comes from NG and, to a lesser extent, electricity. Which is a major reason why the US has become the largest oil refiner and exporter of products in the world. Thanks largely to the frac'ng of the Marcellus Shale the US has an abundance of relatively inexpensive NG. Imagine the cost of refinery products, such as gasoline, if NG prices were $13+/mcf as they were in 2005 compared to the $3.70/mcf we have today. The amount of energy used to refine oil has changed very little for many years. But the cost of that energy has been very volatile. Today the US exports about 5X as much refinery products as we did in 2005 when NG prices were about 4X the current price.

[Plantagenet]

IMHO, the first step towards improving Peak Oil Credibility is to accept that although past estimates of the timing of Peak Oil promulgated by Hubbert and others have proven wrong, the underlying concept remains valid, i.e. oil is a finite resource rather then an infinite resource and global oil production will inevitably peak at some time in the future.


Cheers!

[Yoshua]

Rockman

The economic cost to develop an oil field and operate it is perhaps a very close estimate of the total energy cost that goes into the extraction of crude oil. The volatility of oil prices on the hand makes it hard to say for sure what the total energy cost is by using just the monetary value.

Why does an oil well become uneconomic when you get 6 bbl by investing 1 bbl? Sounds like a great deal to get 6 for 1 invested. But that won't cover the total cost of production.

The total energy cost of oil production is perhaps impossible to calculate...shortonoil tried to do the impossible.

But you of course right that other energy sources are used in the petroleum production...but those energy sources are produced by the use of petroleum somewhere in their production line.

In the end the whole energy sector is extremely complex and hard to predict. My guess is that at some point (today) things will start to fall apart and no one will agree on what the cause is.

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Yoshua', '
')My guess is that at some point (today) things will start to fall apart and no one will agree on what the cause is.

[ralfy]

If a global capitalist system involving competition will require the equivalent of more than one earth to meet the basic needs of a growing population plus a growing global middle class, then an energy return of 6 won't cut it.

[Darian S]

Arent many(most?) involved in fracking in economic turmoil?

I think some said there were complaints of too low a price even at 100$, though perhaps those rumors are untrue.

In any case high debt and economic problèms if true probably point to higher energy intake down the deep chain than would be reflected in most estimates.

[marmico]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t was Wallace Pratts estimate plus what had been produced to date.

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'I')f a global capitalist system involving competition will require the equivalent of more than one earth to meet the basic needs of a growing population plus a growing global middle class, then an energy return of 6 won't cut it.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')PO.com credibility is not the topic. For those with ADHD, the topic is that peak oil itself, in its resource depletion context, is an important topic and yet, because of its association with crackpottery, suffers in the credibility department.

[Yoshua]

We are experiencing peak oil. Conventional oil peaked in 2005. The oil price peaked in 2008. Coal peaked in 2013. World GDP in dollars peaked in 2015. All liquids peaked in 2016. Now we are just waiting for peak debt...and the apocalypse.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')PO.com credibility is not the topic. For those with ADHD, the topic is that peak oil itself, in its resource depletion context, is an important topic and yet, because of its association with crackpottery, suffers in the credibility department.

[GHung]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'A')lright you two, enough with the cutesy name calling and cursing, keep it up and you will both get a day off to cool down.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GHung', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'A')lright you two, enough with the cutesy name calling and cursing, keep it up and you will both get a day off to cool down.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GHung', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'A')lright you two, enough with the cutesy name calling and cursing, keep it up and you will both get a day off to cool down.

[asg70]

There's barely enough posters left to foster any genuine discussion one way or another.

I could probably duck in here once a month and not really feel like I'm missing any insights.