[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')The formula is completely consistent with his assumptions and his inputs. It was the assumptions that were wrong.

[tita]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')The formula is completely consistent with his assumptions and his inputs. It was the assumptions that were wrong.

[spike]

The Hubbert curve is not really a model, just curve fitting as he himself originally admitted. Often fits trends based on large numbers, with inertia (i.e., gradual decline or growth). It ignores price, taxes, access, technology, etc. Only real variable is URR, which Hubbert used as a fixed quantity when it is a dynamic amount.
Best example of disproof: When US nat gas demand declined in early 1980s, he extrapolated it to find we would hit zero gas supply in a couple decades. Similarly, Campbell extrapolated post-Soviet production decline, ignoring that it was caused by the economic collapse.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')It is reasonable to ask how many CURRENT prognostications are nonsense as well. If it isn't obvious to you, it certainly is to me, some people are quite wrapped up in their prognostications, and have no sense at all about how poorly such things has worked out in the past.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f somebody designs a numerical model based on incorrect assumptions then their model generally won't work. In Hubbert's case, he failed to include all the necessary inputs to his model so the results from his numerical model don't match the real world behavior of the global oil market. 

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f somebody designs a numerical model based on incorrect assumptions then their model generally won't work.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ts clear that Hubbert's numerical model purporting to predict various parameters of future oil production did not successfully predict much of anything. Look at US oil production.....it didn't peak in 1970 as Hubbert predicted,

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')what planet have you been living on. US production peaked in 1970 exactly as Hubbert had suggested it would

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')S production did not peak in1970. The numbers are clear---1970 was not the all time peak in US oil production---don't you even know that?.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')asing his calculations on the peak of oil well discovery in 1948, Hubbert used his model in 1956 to create a curve which accurately predicted that oil production in the contiguous United States would peak around 1970

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')xcept that wasn't actually the all-time peak.

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '
')HIs methodology was accurate given the knowledge of the day stayed accurate for nearly 50 years.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he peak oil movement collapsed because Hubbert's data was interpreted and extrapolated to predict a grim future which turned out to be wrong.

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '
')Horseshit. Did you actually read his paper?

[marmico]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f you want to attack Hubbert's work then read the damned paper and comment on where you believe his interpretation of data on hand was wrong

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')e fucked up Persian Gulf URR badly.

[marmico]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')lease show us a quote from Hubbert regarding a prediction for Persian Gulf URR.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')on't play stoopidfookenretard with me. Hubbert's prediction was a world peak of 36 mb/d in 2000. The world produced ~69 mb/d in 2000 of which the Persian Gulf was ~20 mb/d.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Hubbert .... took published estimates of URR as his assumptions which were plugged into his logistic curves to arrive at a peak date.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')S: You are apparently so obvious to the real world that you've been able to post here for 13 years without ever figuring out what Peak Oil means or understanding what in heck people here were talking about. Or maybe you knew once but now you've forgotten what it means. In either case, that shows a truly remarkable lack of comprehension on your part. Congratulations! That amount of obliviousness is just amazing!!