[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GHung', '
')Not that Adams response had anything to do with the conversation. Maybe we can start reducing population by subtracting a few zeros as well. Or reduce CO2 by moving a decimal point.

[GHung]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GHung', '
')Not that Adams response had anything to do with the conversation. Maybe we can start reducing population by subtracting a few zeros as well. Or reduce CO2 by moving a decimal point.

[ralfy]

Demand not just for oil but for various resources will eventually go down, but not in the way most imagine.

[onlooker]

Yes Adam likes to think we can innovate and utilize technology to prolong the Economic juggernaught of modern industrial civilization. And what Ralfy, Ghung, me and others are saying is it WILL NOT work that way. We are NOT God, we cannot create breathable air, fresh water, arable soil and other resources out of thin air. Nor an energy source as advantageous as Oil either. So at some point Mother Nature will not cooperate with our haughty expectations and it sure is showing signs of already being reluctant. But of course it seems some of the optimists here seem to be disciples of Julian Simon who believes that as long as we have plenty of humans we can have continue growing because human ingenuity is the Master Resource.

[onlooker]

Yes Baha, I sound like the eternal pessimist. Some of you are industrious and entrepreneurial people who instinctively feel we humans are capable of great achievements. I guess we all come at these issues from a slightly different vantage point. So, it is good that a mixture of insights and vantage points are represented in these discussions. I wish even more were represented. In the final analysis, nothing is wrong with striving for more and achieving it. However, our species has I believe seriously underestimated, the impact we were going to have on the Earth with our activities and our huge population. And ultimately we are NOT Mother Nature or God , which is to say we must recognize our own limitations in relation to what is possible in this Universe and what is possible for us. It is simply a matter of following the precautionary principle. It is something we all do in our everyday lives by being cautious and making sure of certain things. It is the smart way of acting. Our aspirations tempered by a healthy dose of humility.

[GHung]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('baha', '.').... It will be a great achievement and we can all do it.

[asg70]

"I don't see the can-kicking of consequences slowing at all"

How do you figure?

Had the fracking boom not happened then I think much of the classic peak-oil end-of-suburbia narrative would have indeed taken place. If not Mad Max doom then something in which the knock-on price of oil was a constant national topic (hopefully more nuanced than Drill Baby Drill).

When it comes to evaluating time, it's highly relative. The pulse of human civilization itself is a blip in geologic timescales. But BAU holding on for an extra 10-20 years makes a huge difference on how someone plans out their life (unless they want to just err on the side of caution and head for the hills anyway).

[GHung]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', '&')quot;I don't see the can-kicking of consequences slowing at all"

How do you figure?

Had the fracking boom not happened then I think much of the classic peak-oil end-of-suburbia narrative would have indeed taken place. If not Mad Max doom then something in which the knock-on price of oil was a constant national topic (hopefully more nuanced than Drill Baby Drill). ....

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Back when oil prices were high, people were talking a lot about peak oil supply — the possibility that we’d run out of new sources of crude oil eventually. But now people are talking about peak oil demand — the possibility that we’ll just stop using the stuff as we come up with better options. Most recently, analysts from Bank of America and Merrill Lynch have predicted that oil consumption will peak by 2030, as electric vehicles become dominant. The (simplified) argument: Right now, batteries make electric vehicles relatively expensive. As battery prices fall, EVs will turn into a bargain and people will start buying them en masse. If 40 percent of new car sales are EVs by 2030, that would be enough to send our oil habit into decline. Most oil companies are planning on demand peaking later — like 2040, 2050, or not at all .

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')
ExxonMobil was forced to finally acknowledge the possibility that future climate change policy could lead to peak oil demand, a serious threat to the company’s operations over the long-term. In response to a shareholder resolution passed last year, the oil major just released a report that recognizes the danger of peak oil demand. By 2040, climate change policies and regulations could cut into oil demand, leading to a drop in consumption by 20 percent. Under this scenario, oil demand would decline by an average of 0.4 percent per year, with the lower end of the range seeing declines of 1.7 percent per year. This would mean that global oil demand would decline to 78 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2040, down from 95 mb/d in 2016. In the most pessimistic scenario (from the oil industry’s perspective), demand drops to 53 mb/d. It’s a

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')
There’ll be at least one home still welcoming fossil fuels in the face of a growing threat from cleaner resources, according to Royal Dutch Shell Plc. Heavy industry relies on hydrocarbons to generate extremely high temperatures and chemical reactions, according to Mark Quartermain, vice president of crude oil trading and supply at the company. Many processes used in iron, steel, cement and plastics factories can’t be electrified at all, and even if they could be, cannot be done at a viable cost in the foreseeable future, he said at a conference in Singapore. A growing body of research is painting a bearish picture for oil beyond the next 20 years, as more electric vehicles hit roads across the globe and engines become more efficient. Rapid adoption could mean demand peaks by the 2030s, according to Bank of America and BP Plc, a

[KaiserJeep]

"...but it could be decades until we clean up the mess we've made. We're going to have to get the plastic out of the oceans and the CO2 out of the air."

This would be the thread for those folks who want to hide their heads in the sand, and pretend that the mere presence of 7.7+ billion humans on this planet is not a fatal problem that will in time destroy the environment.

As if the Overshoot Predator cares whether you acknowledge his presence or not.

Now I will comply with your evident desire to not talk about him, and stay out of the remainder of this thread.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('baha', 'F')or those of you who think batteries are the weak link, and anyone cares about energy density, there is something you are missing.

You get what you ask for...

If those $20 trillion are spent on new oil extraction technology, refineries, pipelines, and more efficient IC engines, that's what you'll get...more of the same.

If the $20 trillion is spent on developing 7 phase electric motors, solid brick sodium batteries, PV arrays in the desert, and superconducting transmission lines...That's what you'll get. A movement into the future when oil is long gone and no one cares

...but it could be decades until we clean up the mess we've made. We're going to have to get the plastic out of the oceans and the CO2 out of the air.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')
(Source: Bloomberg) Listen to this podcast on our site by clicking here or subscribe on iTunes here. While oil prices trade above $60 a barrel, up over 40% from their June 2017 lows, energy stocks have languished. Why the disconnect, and will this persist? This time on Financial Sense Newshour, we spoke with Dan Steffens from Energy Prospectus Group to get his outlook on the energy sector, US shale production, and concerns over peak oil demand. US Shale Production Fears Overhyped With both the EIA and IEA projecting for the US to produce more oil than Saudi Arabia next year, some are concerned that this will set a cap on oil prices and hamper gains for energy-producing companies as a whole. This isn't as big an issue as some fear, Steffens said, because demand for oil is going up by 1.5 million barrels a day

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')
Expect peak oil production to arrive in something more like five years than the 50 years forecast by much of the energy industry, environmentalist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said Thursday. It won’t be because the world is running out of oil, but because that’s how fast he’s betting innovations in cheap renewable power, batteries and electric vehicles will start to overtake traditional oil and internal combustion engines, Kennedy told the Globe 2018 conference on sustainable business in Vancouver. Kennedy recounted a retiring Shell executive a year ago who talked about oil demand peaking in 10 years, “not because it’s too dirty to burn, because they’re not going to be able to sell it.” Kennedy spoke as part of a Globe panel discussion with Vancity CEO Tamara Vrooman and Wal van Lierop, a leading clean-technology investor and founder of Chrysalix Venture Capital. And he made

[Tanada]

Peak demand may happen some day, but for now it appears fossil fuels are still going to dominate for another decade, possibly two if we can find enough. Substitution is all well and good, but every day fossil is cheaper than the substitute is another day the transition will be delayed.