PeakOil is You
US oil production exceeds US peak oil rate in 1970
Re: US oil production exceeds US peak oil rate in 1970
by AirlinePilot » Thu 28 Dec 2017, 01:09:34
It matters because its important to compare apples to apples.The devil is always in the details.
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Re: US oil production exceeds US peak oil rate in 1970
by Tanada » Thu 28 Dec 2017, 10:14:27
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'I')t matters because its important to compare apples to apples.The devil is always in the details.
Fair enough, in light of the comments here I think a more accurate unit of measure would be energy than volume. Doesn't matter if you use ergs, Joules, BTU's or some other unit so long as it is consistent across the various molecular formula's for the petroleum and alcohol molecules produced and fed into the system.
In Technical terms a barrel of extra heavy oil will have more energy than a barrel of condensate recovered from a Natural Gas 'wet' well. However the refining process to convert either barrel of mixed molecules into vehicle fuel will require different steps and my understanding is the extra heavy oil needs a couple extra steps to break the long molecules into shorter molecules and stabilize them at those lengths by reacting them with free hydrogen gas.
Then again I have also read about Diesel engines for large ships that can directly burn that extra heavy petroleum without refining, so that creates a whole new spectrum of confusion over what is useful and what is not. It all boils down to what your end goal is, if you want to move a huge diesel powered ship them raw extra heavy crude petroleum or even heated asphalt can work just fine. If on the other hand you want to run a Moped with a little four cycle gasoline engine on it that same extra heavy crude has to be extensively modified before the engine can operate on its energy content, but the condensate from the 'wet' natural gas wells in the Utica in Ohio will run it almost without modification.
If we take a step back and think about it early oil crude was mostly the medium grades that flowed relatively easily. We learned how to refine those into all grades of fuel above and below the medium weights and it was easy because they were a thorough mixture of all grades from methane to super long extra heavy asphalt. Now we are using more of the light and heavy ends of 'crude' in our mixture because there are not as many sources of the medium grades as we desire to refine and use, so we are struggling to fit modern blends into concepts that date back over a century of refining. It is no wonder we have so much contention over what is or is not 'oil' when even the blends we call gasoline and diesel are much different from what they were in 1917. Heck the first generation gasoline formula included Propane as one of its constituent chemicals, but outside of the far north in Alaska or Siberia propane forms bubbles and escapes out of the tank before it can be used by the engine. Next up the chain is Butane and modern gasoline formula's limit how much of that you can have in the blend in summer time because it does exactly the same thing, in a hot summer environment it evaporates right out of the gasoline in places like Atlanta, Georgia or Los Angeles, California. On the other hand it is 2F outside my house right this moment and without at least 10% butane in my gasoline tank my little Honda Civic would not want to start or run. A century ago this was not well understood and you got whatever blend the local refinery made from whatever crude it happened to have available to process. Now this is all regulated fairly tightly, at least in the USA and Canada where I have driven vehicles.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alfred Tennyson', 'W')e are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: US oil production exceeds US peak oil rate in 1970
by AdamB » Thu 28 Dec 2017, 20:42:40
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'I')t matters because its important to compare apples to apples.The devil is always in the details.
True. Would you say that this is a reasonable theory for why peak oilers screwed the pooch so badly a decade back? They didn't understand even the most basic details of resource economics? Or just never understood geology very well, because some posters on this website were talking about resource plays like shale way back when, and were laughed off. Turns out, they knew these types of details, and the devils in them.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: US oil production exceeds US peak oil rate in 1970
by asg70 » Fri 29 Dec 2017, 01:34:00
The devil may be in the details but there's also seeing the forest through the trees. And the forest is that BAU continues apace.
BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)
HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: US oil production exceeds US peak oil rate in 1970
by AdamB » Fri 29 Dec 2017, 10:52:49
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', 'T')he devil may be in the details but there's also seeing the forest through the trees. And the forest is that BAU continues apace.
Yup. And there is an advantage to the Happy McPeakers systematically declaring global peak oil, and that is on the far side of that claim (like now) we can look back and gauge credibility contemporaneous to the time. The EIA kept theirs in this regard, not falling for the underwhelming evidence of bloggers and beat cops, whereas the IEA bit and fell for it. And the peakers of course, well, there is a reason my pet name for them sounds like a happy meal fed to children.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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