[KaiserJeep]

Right. Also note that of all the things humans do that alters the background radiation level, the most cumulative impact comes from burning mildly radioactive coal. Among the worst coals to burn come from West Virginia mines, which is an area where Radon accumulates in houses from slow seepage from the Earth beneath the homes.

Above ground nuclear testing was banned decades ago, and atmospheric radioactive isotopes from then have declined considerably - then got bumped up by Chernobyl, and now are declining again.

But still, I have a vivid memory of being warned at age 12 not to eat the snow that contained Strontium 90 fallout. But again, bombs and commercial nuclear power are different topics.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')
The global demand for crude oil will peak in 2030 as electric vehicles continue to chip away at the market for gasoline-powered cars and trucks. So say analysts with Bank of America Merrill Lynch, who predict that EVs will grow to 40 percent of new-car sales worldwide over the next 12 years. “Electric vehicles will likely start to erode this last major bastion of oil demand growth in the early 2020s and cause global oil demand to peak by 2030,” the analysts wrote in an emailed research note, according to Bloomberg. The new analysis is a more aggressive outlook than that of other experts, including the International Energy Agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration and OPEC, all of which don't see the demand for oil starting to decline until 2040. Meanwhile, Royal Dutch Shell CEO Ben van Beurden has said oil could peak as soon as the late 2020s or early ..

[Newfie]

I don’t get the concern over “peak demand”.

Let’s say we are at 95% of peak today.
At 2030 we are at 100%.
At 2050 we are at 90%.

What is peak PRODUCTION?
Let’s say we are at 100% today.
At 2030 we are at 95%
At 2050 we are at 80%

The question is not total demand, but what fraction of demand that can be met by production. If production falls below demand price will skyrocket.

Now I think we have a long way to go through conservation to limit the impact but not an infinite way to go. At some point there will be a bottom and no more adaptation.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'I') don’t get the concern over “peak demand”.

Let’s say we are at 95% of peak today.
At 2030 we are at 100%.
At 2050 we are at 90%.

What is peak PRODUCTION?
Let’s say we are at 100% today.
At 2030 we are at 95%
At 2050 we are at 80%

The question is not total demand, but what fraction of demand that can be met by production. If production falls below demand price will skyrocket.

Now I think we have a long way to go through conservation to limit the impact but not an infinite way to go. At some point there will be a bottom and no more adaptation.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'I') don’t get the concern over “peak demand”.

[Plantagenet]

The easiest way to attain peak demand for oil is to levy large carbon taxes on FF to make oil so expensive that people will have no choice but to switch to another fuel.

The easiest way to get a big carbon tax is to first institute a small carbon tax and then ratchet it up over time.

AND It should be easy to institute a small carbon tax because even the oil companies now say they want a carbon tax.

why-big-oil-wants-a-carbon-tax

Unfortunately, none of our US politicians will even consider a carbon tax. Trump and the Rs are into cutting taxes and INCREASING the use of FF, while the Ds these days are obsessed with shutting down the government and maximizing the number of illegal aliens coming in the USA in order to increase their base, and hardly even mention any other issues.

Cheers!

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')
Sure. And a century after that humans will be yucking it up like we do nowadays about supply and demand for whale oil. Haven't heard of all those problems caused by lack of supply and demand for whale oil nowadays? See what I mean.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', ' ')
Can you say the same for any substitute for petroleum products today?
I thought not!

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ubstitutes existed and were promptly found that more then met the demand for the uses of the previous product.
Can you say the same for any substitute for petroleum products today?
I thought not!

[ROCKMAN]

Adam - "Entire countries now adding more EVs to the fleet than ICE powered machines...". Interesting. Had not seen that stat elsewhere. Please name a few of those countries. Thanks in advance.

[GHung]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'A')dam - "Entire countries now adding more EVs to the fleet than ICE powered machines...". Interesting. Had not seen that stat elsewhere. Please name a few of those countries. Thanks in advance.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ubstitutes existed and were promptly found that more then met the demand for the uses of the previous product.
Can you say the same for any substitute for petroleum products today?
I thought not!

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'A')dam - "Entire countries now adding more EVs to the fleet than ICE powered machines...". Interesting. Had not seen that stat elsewhere. Please name a few of those countries. Thanks in advance.

[GHung]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '.')....

And when we are talking about peak demand theories, we obviously have abandoned the Albert Bartlett fallacy of growth as exponential. It wasn't when he was claiming it, it isn't now, it won't be in the future.

[asg70]

Time and time again, when all else fails, peak oilers shift the topic over to the debt bomb.

[GHung]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', 'T')ime and time again, when all else fails, peak oilers shift the topic over to the debt bomb.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GHung', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '.')....

And when we are talking about peak demand theories, we obviously have abandoned the Albert Bartlett fallacy of growth as exponential. It wasn't when he was claiming it, it isn't now, it won't be in the future.

[GHung]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')
Debt is as real as you think it is. Change the value of the currency, print your own money, and it can do whatever you'd like, just keep putting those zeros on the tail end until you run out of room on the bills.

But you can't do that with physicals like oil. Bartlett should have known better, as should you. Perhaps we can ask your uncle about the difference between the make believe, and the real?

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')
Exxon Mobil Corp said on Friday that it expects global oil demand to drop sharply by 2040 if regulations aimed at limiting the impact of greenhouse gas emissions on climate are fully implemented. An oil pump jack is seen at sunset in a field outside Scheibenhard, near Strasbourg, France, October 6, 2017. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann Under this scenario, Exxon projected world oil consumption will drop 0.4 percent annually to 2040 to about 78 million barrels per day (bpd). That is about 25 percent below current levels, which the U.S. Energy Information Administration puts at 98 million bpd. The findings were contained in a report produced after Exxon’s shareholders supported a climate-impact resolution last year and Exxon’s board approved a plan to analyze the effects. Exxon’s climate-impact report comes roughly three years after almost 200 nations met in Paris to set a goal of limiting