[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')

Peak oil demand has swiftly moved from concept to potential to symbolic talisman—and it means different things to different people. Most often, the debate centres on the year when this peak may occur. Is it 2025? 2035? And these days the discussion never fails to mention electric vehicles, which—runs the argument—will eat away at oil's market presence. But there are other significant things to worry about in the much shorter term. And for companies, this attempt to identify the year of the peak—and what will happen to the 20% or so share of the market that would be affected by transport electrification—is simply not granular enough to be of use. It also ignores what's been going on in the market. Global oil-demand growth in 2017 is likely to come in at around 1.6m barrels a day, a number well above the

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chris-h', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')quot;One of the biggest challenges will be to find the giant projects of the next decade, which will put great pressure on the search for high-quality, significant opportunities that in themselves meet the criteria of 'big," Esser and Jackson said.

After analyzing the data, Cera predicted that the capacity of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will rise to 45.6 million barrels per day in 2010 from 36.8 million barrels per day in 2004.

The analysts expect non-OPEC capacity to quickly increase by the end of the decade with additions of 7.5 million barrels per day to 55.8 million barrels per day, as there are about 20 to 30 major projects coming on line every year between now and the end of the decade.

"The balance of supply over demand has the potential to expand significantly over the next five years, and this could drive oil prices to the downside," the authors found. "If demand growth averages a relatively strong 2.2% through 2010, prices could weaken from recent record highs and slip well
below $40 a barrel as 2007 to 2008 nears."

[GHung]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chris-h', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')quot;One of the biggest challenges will be to find the giant projects of the next decade, which will put great pressure on the search for high-quality, significant opportunities that in themselves meet the criteria of 'big," Esser and Jackson said.

After analyzing the data, Cera predicted that the capacity of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will rise to 45.6 million barrels per day in 2010 from 36.8 million barrels per day in 2004.

The analysts expect non-OPEC capacity to quickly increase by the end of the decade with additions of 7.5 million barrels per day to 55.8 million barrels per day, as there are about 20 to 30 major projects coming on line every year between now and the end of the decade.

"The balance of supply over demand has the potential to expand significantly over the next five years, and this could drive oil prices to the downside," the authors found. "If demand growth averages a relatively strong 2.2% through 2010, prices could weaken from recent record highs and slip well
below $40 a barrel as 2007 to 2008 nears."

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Oil market participants and analysts have been closely watching the record level of supply coming out of the United States that is threatening to undo OPEC’s production cuts. But in the latter part of 2017 and early in 2018, robust oil demand growth — both in emerging markets and OECD economies — has supported oil prices as much as the cartel’s production restraint and the weakening U.S. dollar. Traditionally, all eyes have been fixated on China and the pace of its oil demand and imports growth, but lately India has grabbed global attention after its oil imports rose to record highs amid strong economic growth and fuel demand. Projections of India’s long-term energy and oil consumption are also optimistic, and India is already a major oil demand growth driver. In China, January crude oil imports jumped to a new record of 9.57

[Tanada]

From what I have observed India is about 5 years behind China on the growth curve. When you look at standard of living measured in things like number of cars per population as an indicator you see the USA/Canada/EU nations all went through a bloom phase in the early to mid 20th century and then came to a slow growth roughly paralleling population expansion once market saturation too place. The standard Sigmoid or S curve. Then if you keep looking at industrialized or industrializing nations you will see that later in the 20th century Japan experienced the same bloom in the Vietnam war era followed by South Korea later in the 20th century. China got started on the bloom phase around 2005 and is still in the rapid growth phase and India has now by appearances joined in before China has completed its build out.

Given that China alone has as many potential car owners (or washing machine owners if you prefer) as the EU and North America combined it is inevitable that demand for physical resources is at an all time high. India has about 85 percent as many potential consumers as China has so adding them as well mean that we are trying to transition from a world where 1 Billion people more or less live in a high energy lifestyle to a world where 4 Billion do the same just by adding China and India to the collection. Even then there are still around a Billion more people in Africa who want a high energy lifestyle plus half a Billion in South America and another 2 Billion in Asia outside the four countries already discussed (Japan, South Korea, China, India).

All these potential consumers need energy and they are tired of being told no. China alone last year added more new automobiles to its fleet than all of North America combined! With India now coming on strong the growth in demand of 1.5 MM/bbl/d projected for the next few years may turn out to be hopelessly optimistic when seen through the rear view mirror in 2028.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Oil demand will remain strong through at least 2020, pushing spot costs for crude above futures pricing. That’s the message from Francisco Blanch, Bank of America’s head of commodities and derivative research. Electric vehicles won’t start biting into oil demand until at least 2020, he said in a Bloomberg Television interview Monday. Blanch expects China to push electric vehicles in its quest for cleaner fuels, but said the technology still needs three to four years to make prices comparable with internal combustion engine vehicles. China is “going to have a massive geopolitical exposure to global energy," Blanch said. "They need to wean themselves off the foreign fuel dependency problem they have." bloomberg

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')
India and China are set to contribute nearly 50 per cent to the increase in the global demand for oil over the next five years, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its report on oil sector for 2018. According to IEA, demand is expected to grow at an annual rate of 1.2 million barrels per day (mbd) until 2023, as the oil demand would reach 104.7 mbd, up by 6.9 mb day from 2018. “As China’s economy becomes more consumer-oriented, the rate of growth in oil demand slows down to 2023, compared with the 2010-17 period. By comparison, the pace of oil demand growth will pick up slightly in India,” it says. The report says that though there is no peak oil demand in sight, the pace of growth will slow down to 1 mb per day by 2023

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')
Global oil demand rose by 1.5 million barrels a day in 2017, growing at 1.6 per cent, more than twice the average annual growth rate seen in a decade, International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its report. The Paris based agency said in its Global Energy and CO2 status report 2017 that more than 60 per cent of the growth in oil demand came from Asia, with China and India being the biggest demand centres. It added that one of the main drivers of growth was the transport sector and petrochemical sector. The report said that even though electric cars are making rapid inroads, particularly in China, which is leading in global sales of electric cars the strong growth in electric-car sales remains too small to make a dent in oil demand growth. IEA reiterated that a slowdown in oil demand growth may

[Tuike]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')orld oil demand is scaling record highs, boosted by strong summer air travel, increased oil use in power generation and surging Chinese petrochemical activity. Global oil demand is set to expand by 2.2 mb/d to 102.2 mb/d in 2023, with China accounting for more than 70% of growth.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tuike', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')orld oil demand is scaling record highs, boosted by strong summer air travel, increased oil use in power generation and surging Chinese petrochemical activity. Global oil demand is set to expand by 2.2 mb/d to 102.2 mb/d in 2023, with China accounting for more than 70% of growth.

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tuike', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'w')ith China accounting for more than 70% of growth.

[Pops]

Thanks for the link. I've read that China and India are both sucking up the russian oil at a discount, it's why russian sanctions didn't send the brent skyward.

Dark Brandon's biggest mistake may turn out to be emptying the SPR, it is down by about half from 650 to 350 mm/bbls and he got not one bit of love for it.

Dennis over at POB regularly charts Peak Demand which he guesses will happen rapidly after 2030. This is after a Permian/US LTO peak around 2025. I'm guessing then he thinks there will be a price spike and eventually falling demand/price as EVs take over the passenger market. The price will fall and oil investment will halt.

Laherrere as usual thinks peak supply is about now.

One thing I have seen is the oil market reacts in amplified measure to whatever condition. Partly un-involved speculators, partly just the boom/bust nature. Way back when I played chart reader I guessed the market would become wobblier both in frequency and magnitude as PO closed in — and after.



But back in 2018 the drop in consumption was heralded as the tipping point, but not yet. IEA, BP, etc are sticking with the ca2028 date to roll over.

The big hitch as I see it is politics. Rightward political shift worldwide in reaction to globalisation and increasing wealth inequality brings along GW denialism (let alone PO doubt). This trend back to individual narcissism, ethnonationalism and authoritarianism will kill the transition in the cradle just as surely as their draconian social cuts kill the babies the dictator's force women to bear. Think Raygun pulling Carter's collectors off the White House roof... and trump's "windmill cancer" (actually his motivation is personal, LOL—natch— they spoil the view from his golf course)

If I prayed, I would pray for an affordable EV, and voluntary mass reshoring—relocalisation—co-op-eration. Since I don't believe in fairy tales, I lean toward something less kumbia. Hope I'm surprised.

[theluckycountry]

When I think of increasing demand I naturally tend to think in terms of car driving or truck transport, but how much of current consumption is a consequence of the rebuildable energy ramp up over the past decade? Solar panels and wind turbines don't grow on trees, though to listen to the way they media sells them you would assume so.

The Global Solar Panel Market was valued at USD 182.53 billion in 2022
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/solar-po ... ntent-card

That equates to 182 billion worth of oil coal and gas, probably coal doing the heavy lifting. China is consuming around 17 million barrels of oil a day, which is roughly 6 Billion barrels a year. At $80/bbl, that's about $500 Billion a year. In comparison, the energy consumed for the global market for solar is substantial.

[Pops]

Once energy scarcity drives prices so high society decides to transition, any energy allocated to do so will only increase scarcity, drive price higher and undermine resolve.

Tom Murphy called this the energy trap.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he construction of that shiny new infrastructure requires not just money, but…energy. And that’s the very commodity in short supply. Will we really be willing to sacrifice additional energy in the short term—effectively steepening the decline—for a long-term energy plan? It’s a trap!

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'O')nce energy scarcity drives prices so high society decides to transition.....

[theluckycountry]

The planet is running out of cheap energy, spending the last big uptick on plastic bags and electric cars. In the future people assume robots will be doing all the work lol, it will be cheap labor, human labor like used in the assembling of iphones. Robots are fine for punching out metal circles and painting static targets, delivering food on level floors, but they are a 1000 years away from mimicking the nimble dexterity of humans. And humans cost nothing to produce and little to feed, that's how modern China was built BTW.

Human Juggling
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RPNZ0YlGNk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FWHdT1plEqI

Robots
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tLrz_R_T6kg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9asDO_1A27U

Boston Dynamics has done some cute things on level concrete and even outdoors but it's a stilted imitation compared to the ballet of a 100 workers on a construction site stepping over obstacles with ease while carrying tools and materials. Too many SciFi movies filling heads with dreams.

[careinke]

I recently saw Elon Musk state he would be satisfied with personal robots when they can thread a needle with no help.

That's a pretty high bar.

Peace

[theluckycountry]

Robots are no different than cars or trains or nuclear power stations, all these technologies pass through their initial development stage then settle into a economically viable form and very little fundamental innovation happens after that. Today's average cars are not that fundamentally different from a Model T. They could be, they could float on air cushions, they could fly! We certainly have the technology for both but we still roll over concrete and bitumen on rubber wheels because that is the economically viable level.

Look at the Japanese Shinkansen, an incredible safety record. Billions of passenger miles now and not a single accident. It's never even been late aside from earthquakes halting the trains. But it's not maglev, which it could easily be. Why? Not economically viable. The same happened with nuclear power station design, Space rocket design. Fundamentals we are talking about here, bells and whistles mean little. Elon's rockets cost just as much in energy terms to attain orbit, the chemical rocket is still a chemical rocket of 1945.

It doesn't matter if they can design a robot out of super light super strong metal so that it can fly across a beer garden and deliver your dinner, it's never going to happen because it would never be economically viable. I love watching SciFi movies, some of my all time favorites have robots in them. But I don't read the SciFi that modern engineering promulgates simply because I've watched 50 years of broken promises from that field, failed Mars colonies, failed flying cars, failed voice recognition offerings, failed autonomous vehicles for our roads. I could wait for that, like I could wait for fusion power, but neither is economically viable, obviously.

Why Americans still chat glowingly about robots and AI while the homeless and their feces is piling up in the streets and their cities are being looted by bands of impoverished youth mystifies me? Cannot we connect the dots? Successful technologies rely on either mass uptake at cheap cost (mobile phones) or they come in low volumes and at exorbitant cost that the average person can't afford (dental implants).

This is cheap and economically viable



This is not!



Bellabot $15,000



Honda Asimo $100,000



Guess which one will (is already) taking all the market share. And as they get cheaper to make they'll maintain market share. Just like gasoline powered cars and conventional trains. So don't expect to be served by a walking robot that places your meal in front of you this side of the next millennium.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'W')hen exactly do you think fossil fuel energy will become scarce?

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')


Scarcity pricing hit in 1974 when OPEC took advantage of our conventional peak and the era of free energy came to a halt.