[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '.').. troll.... trolling.... troll.....

[tita]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'E')IA and OPEC predict US shale oil will add ca. 1 million bbls/day of new production in 2018

5-oil-factors-watch-2018]

The US TOS shale biz is currently losing money. If they increase oil production by 1 million bbls/day will they make up their losses on volume?

Cheers!

[Plantagenet]

IEA fears oil shortages by 2020 as new oil discoveries fall to record low

iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016

Its pretty hard to have large new oil discoveries when most of the world has already been pretty thoroughly explored for petroleum.

Cheers!

---------------------

Hmmm.... that 2020-21 timeline on oil shortages is a perfect fit to this thread!

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'I')EA fears oil shortages by 2020 as new oil discoveries fall to record low

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '[')url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0]Peak oil in 2020. But odds are no one will care. Cancel peak oil rapture. Again.[/url]

[tita]

Tony Seba's scenario is appealing... It's a nice future idea. But it's in the utopia prophecy kind of scenarios. The principle of technology disruptions is that you can't foreseen them, or what effects they'll have. Whatever the outcome you forecast, bad or good, it will be different.

There is currently no trend in a reduction of oil consumption. On the contrary, with the fall of oil prices, the consumption increased at a higher rate globally. Even through the 2010-2014 high prices era, consumption increased, although not in the US.

It's not that Seba is wrong... It's just that whatever EV and FSD fanboys are believing, it's not happening currently. Not that I'm against it. Maybe it's going to happen (certainly for a part of people). But I will doubt until it's really substancial. The current population believing in a near tech disruption is not representative of the needs of the global population.

[tita]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tita', 'h')ttps://shaleprofile.com/index.php/2017/12/15/north-dakota-update-through-october-2017/

Older wells also appear to have grown, which may be related with refracking or completion of DUC, I don't know. At this rythm, Bakken will reach its 2015 high before the end of the year.

[zoidberg]

Im pretty sure theres more resources globally awaiting proper investment conditions to come online. If north america alone had all this potential surely theres a lot more waiting in the wings.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zoidberg', 'I')m pretty sure theres more resources globally awaiting proper investment conditions to come online. If north america alone had all this potential surely theres a lot more waiting in the wings.

[tita]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zoidberg', 'I')m pretty sure theres more resources globally awaiting proper investment conditions to come online. If north america alone had all this potential surely theres a lot more waiting in the wings.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')
The ‘hottest shale play’ has been the media’s favorite cliché for the Permian Basin over the past year. And while cliché, the basin straddling West Texas and New Mexico has lived up to this description—its oil production, unlike that in other basins, did not fall off a cliff during the downturn, it recently beat its own record from the 1970s, and is expected to continue to increase production more than any other U.S. shale play and account for most of the American oil production growth. The Permian has been pumping oil since the 1920s. Conventional oil production started to decline in the late 1970s, but the fracking boom revitalized the oil-producing region in the early 2010s, and as oil prices rose last year, the Permian beat its previous record for annual oil production dating back to 1973. The Permian surge in oil

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')
The ‘hottest shale play’ has been the media’s favorite cliché for the Permian Basin over the past year. And while cliché, the basin straddling West Texas and New Mexico has lived up to this description—its oil production, unlike that in other basins, did not fall off a cliff during the downturn, it recently beat its own record from the 1970s, and is expected to continue to increase production more than any other U.S. shale play and account for most of the American oil production growth. The Permian has been pumping oil since the 1920s. Conventional oil production started to decline in the late 1970s, but the fracking boom revitalized the oil-producing region in the early 2010s, and as oil prices rose last year, the Permian beat its previous record for annual oil production dating back to 1973. The Permian surge in oil

[Plantagenet]

Global Oil production outside the US predicted to decline in 2018

hail-the-return-of-$100-crude

Combine that with peak Permian in 2020-21, and we're looking at peaks in oil production both outside the US and inside the US.

My gosh---that means global peak oil in three more years!!!!!


Cheers!

[Tanada]

With the depressed production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela coupled with the OPEC+ promise to maintain production cuts to support prices any potential "world peak" 2018 has an awful lot of artificial factors working in its favor. It is just as likely that as Iraq continues to add production capacity, the Venezuela and Libya governments come around to a more rational leadership and OPEC+ decide that frackers in the USA need another lesson in 2019 will all lead to another over production boom year and price crash.

[GoghGoner]

It seems like right now things are going better for oil supply than I remember them. Iran's sanctions being lifted was huge, Libya and Nigeria are both doing much better than a few months ago, Iraq has been stable, etc...

For some pessimism on 2018. Mexico is just about a failed state. Venzuela isn't going the right direction. The chance for civil war in the Iran seems to be increasing. A drought in the corn belt could turn the Africa topsy turvy again by the end of the year.

[Plantagenet]

Yes, there are countries like Iraq and Iran where oil production has some room to increase. However, there are many other countries where production has already peaked and gone into decline. Whether or not global oil production peaks in the next couple of years will depend on the total global picture--ie. even if oil production is still increasing in a few countries, oil production declines are occurring in many more countries.


Global oil production growth has been very slow for the last several years. Its inevitable that at some point it will slow even further and then stop growing.

Cheers!

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'Y')es, there are countries like Iraq and Iran where oil production has some room to increase. However, there are many other countries where production has already peaked and gone into decline. Whether or not global oil production peaks in the next couple of years will depend on the total global picture--ie. even if oil production is still increasing in a few countries, oil production declines are occurring in many more countries.

Global oil production growth has been very slow for the last several years. Its inevitable that at some point it will slow even further and then stop growing.

Cheers!

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '.')..it may turn out that once sale prices on the world market creep high enough the next generation of exploration will boom seeking new resources to exploit.

This isn't to say they will automatically find enough to replace consumption especially after all the recent growth we have experienced. However declaring that low growth in a glut market is some sign of imminent doom is at best premature IMO.

[Subjectivist]

Don't forget Venezuela alone has over a TRILLION barrels of heavy and extra heavy oil, basically the same stuff Canada gets out of the tar sands and sells millions of barrels of a day. They also have the advantage of tropical weather making it easier to pump the stuff in the September through April period every year.

This is a huge resource and if the world needs regime change and moder refineries to make use of it I expect that to happen when really needed.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', 'D')on't forget Venezuela alone has over a TRILLION barrels of heavy and extra heavy oil, basically the same stuff Canada gets out of the tar sands and sells millions of barrels of a day. They also have the advantage of tropical weather making it easier to pump the stuff in the September through April period every year.

This is a huge resource and if the world needs regime change and moder refineries to make use of it I expect that to happen when really needed.