[Graeme]

World’s oil supply gone by 2041, study says

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')t the current rate of consumption of 85.22 million barrels per day versus oil reserves calculated at 1.332 trillion barrels in 2008, the global supply of oil will run out by 2041, according to a study published online by Environmental Science and Technology. The estimate assumes that the annual growth of consumption stays at 1.3 percent.

The U.S. study by researchers at the University of California – Davis, also said that when oil is gone, it would take at least a century for man to develop other alternative energy sources to sustain the world’s economy.

Using a complex equation, the researchers concluded that companies who are currently developing alternative energy sources such as bio-diesel or ethanol would lack the capital needed to replace the production by traditional oil companies of today. They project that growth in the alternative sector would be far less than the growth to be displayed by oil companies in the near future as the world would be increasingly hungry for oil.

They said that alternative energy sources must be developed much quicker and be made commercially viable by 2041 to power vehicles and run industries.

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', '[')b]World’s oil supply gone by 2041, study says

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')t the current rate of consumption of 85.22 million barrels per day versus oil reserves calculated at 1.332 trillion barrels in 2008, the global supply of oil will run out by 2041, according to a study published online by Environmental Science and Technology. The estimate assumes that the annual growth of consumption stays at 1.3 percent.

The U.S. study by researchers at the University of California – Davis, also said that when oil is gone, it would take at least a century for man to develop other alternative energy sources to sustain the world’s economy.

Using a complex equation, the researchers concluded that companies who are currently developing alternative energy sources such as bio-diesel or ethanol would lack the capital needed to replace the production by traditional oil companies of today. They project that growth in the alternative sector would be far less than the growth to be displayed by oil companies in the near future as the world would be increasingly hungry for oil.

They said that alternative energy sources must be developed much quicker and be made commercially viable by 2041 to power vehicles and run industries.

[Graeme]

Yep, we've got 31 years to do it. Should be interesting watch to say the least.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')he global supply of oil will run out by 2041,
...
The estimate assumes that the annual growth of consumption stays at 1.3 percent.

[lper100km]

Do they explain why they are so optimistic?

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')
The past seven years were both very exciting, and very difficult for the global energy markets. Today’s market faces two key challenges, both the product of human innovation and technological advancement. The first is the challenge faced by oil producers to rebalance the market amid new supplies from unconventional sources due to new and improved techniques to unlock them. The second challenge, one that is still developing, involves new automobile technology as world leaders race to ban combustion engines in favor of electrical vehicles. The first challenge is the most immediate. The technological advancement that led to what is known as the “shale oil revolution” has made conventional exporters rethink how they plan their economic strategies for the future. “For the first time in the history of oil, I see oil competing with oil,” said Abdullah Al-Attiyah, Qatar’s former minister of energy, at an industry

[MD]

oh my. more bullshit.

everything is going to change, dramatically and hopefully not too suddenly.

be happy that you live in the most interesting times in all human history, and hang onto your hats!

[Subjectivist]

Life is change. We start out as a single cell in the womb, are born after a million cell divisions, grow to adulthood with another trillion cell divisions, and if we live long enough die as an old fogey after about a hundred trillion cell divisions. Civilization is analogous acording to my history prof way back when, it starts with a single village and grows into a large empire if it lasts long enough, then it dies and something else grows from the debris like the mushrooms that feast on a fallen tree trunks in the deep forest.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', 'L')ife is change. We start out as a single cell in the womb, are born after a million cell divisions, grow to adulthood with another trillion cell divisions, and if we live long enough die as an old fogey after about a hundred trillion cell divisions. Civilization is analogous acording to my history prof way back when, it starts with a single village and grows into a large empire if it lasts long enough, then it dies and something else grows from the debris like the mushrooms that feast on a fallen tree trunks in the deep forest.

[rockdoc123]

it is interesting to look at this and understand the actual numbers. The claim was that "reserves" were 1.3 trillion bbls in 2008 and at the rate of consumption that would be used up by 2041.
If we take 31 Gbbls of consumption per year then based on this projection our current "reserves" should be about 1.0 trillion bbls. But low and behold according to the BP study in 2017 remaining world Proven Reserves are 1.7 trillion bbls!
Here is the problem...people do not understand the term Reserves nor what it means. Invariably the references are to either the IEA, EIA or BP analyses all of which report Proven Reserves. They do not take into account Probable Reserves or Possible Reserves nor Contingent Resources all of which can be upgraded to Proven Reserves categories without any further new field discoveries.
So outside of the reserve adds from US light oil during this period there was a considerable amount of reserves being reclassified as Proven. Without understanding how much 3P and Contingent Resources are out there any projection is basically worthless.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', 'o')h my. more bullshit.

everything is going to change, dramatically and hopefully not too suddenly.

be happy that you live in the most interesting times in all human history, and hang onto your hats!

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', 'L')ife is change. We start out as a single cell in the womb, are born after a million cell divisions, grow to adulthood with another trillion cell divisions, and if we live long enough die as an old fogey after about a hundred trillion cell divisions. Civilization is analogous acording to my history prof way back when, it starts with a single village and grows into a large empire if it lasts long enough, then it dies and something else grows from the debris like the mushrooms that feast on a fallen tree trunks in the deep forest.

[ralfy]

Not 31 years but much earlier.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'N')ot 31 years but much earlier.

[Revi]

It really doesn't matter if it's all gone. It's the rate at which we are using the stuff that matters. The world economy demands 3% more every year. Anything less starves the system. Eventually it doesn't have enough to run business as usual, even when issuing more debt. Wars and shutoffs ensue. So far we have Syria, Yemen and several African countries on the war/shutoff list. There will be more and more. Meanwhile we will all pretend that all is well in the countries which haven't been turned off yet. 2041 seems a long way off, but I am pretty sure a lot of planning is going on about 23 years from now.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I')t really doesn't matter if it's all gone. It's the rate at which we are using the stuff that matters.

[asg70]

Interesting thread bump. The original link doesn't even resolve anymore. Is that kind of the new hobby of posters? Bumping threads that comment on past current events that would need to be found on the internet wayback machine?

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', 'I')nteresting thread bump. The original link doesn't even resolve anymore. Is that kind of the new hobby of posters? Bumping threads that comment on past current events that would need to be found on the internet wayback machine?

[ROCKMAN]

I guess understanding the supply/demand dynamic is still beyond the comprehension of some folks. There will be oil available in 2041...and 2061...and 2071. It may not be anywhere close today global production rate. But as production declines the price will increase. That increase will be paid by a smaller share of the consumer market. In fact, as we've seen many times before, the price will increase to a level that producers will have to decrease the price or low production rates. But in a world with a much lower production rate, say 30 mm bopd, there may be a sufficient number of buyers that can afford the price. But if the prices reduce demand enough the resultant decrease in production rate will extend the life of the remaining oil reserves.

FYI: products containing whale oil can still be purchased in Japan, Norway and other countries. Needless to say very expensive. But it is still available today to some consumers. Just as SOME crude oil will be available for many decades. Well beyond 2041.