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Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 06 Jan 2018, 16:18:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'Q')uite some time ago, Richard Heinberg was already anticipating this rollercoaster ride in prices in his book "When the Party is Over"


What rollercoaster ride? I don't recall him predicting that the consequence to peak oil would be increased supply of a size to disrupt the entire global market, that supply originating from the US, the price crashing and STAYING there because of this new supply, etc etc. Perhaps you read a different print edition of that book then I did? He specifically refuted the things that happened, as best I can tell.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', '
') But, the important thing to note is that this seesaw effect will get progressively worse so that as both the Oil Industsry and thus the Economy descend ever more, the ability of the oil price to recover ie get higher and of the Economy to get better fizzles out due to energy/economic constraints.


Progressively worse? The current global markets haven't yet approached what went on in the 1970's or what happened in 1986. So where do you get this "progressively worse" idea? As opposed to progressively better because, as many professionals might note, "holy cow this is bad! But at least I didn't lose my job like we all did in 1986!"
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 06 Jan 2018, 16:36:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'S')o you don't see depletion and thermodynamics working in the background limiting the ability to maneuver economically?


You mean the depletion of oil that has been going on since 1859, and following the laws of thermodynamics in its use the same way then as it is now? Neither of those limited the ability of the US to go from a land of small farmers to the superpower it is to this day, the rules of thermodynamics haven't changed over this time, and arguably while the rate of depletion has fluctuated from year to year within 3 different centuries now, that rate doesn't appear to be causal to any of the economic issues across that same time span.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', '
')In particular these background factors creating Net Energy shortfalls that affect adversely both the Energy Industry and the General Economy


Only if you BELIEVE they do. Certainly there is no evidence, of course BELIEVERS might not want to remember the SCIENCE that Charlie and Cutler did using net energy to predict the end of oil drilling in the US by 2000 because of net energy. We all know how that went.

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Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 06 Jan 2018, 22:50:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
')I have repeatedly denounced the ETP thermodynamics mumbo jumbo for the farce that it is.
Depletion on the other hand will happen but will force us to maneuver not limit us. The energy industry will make as much money on the down side of the curve as they did going up and perhaps quite a bit more even in inflation adjusted dollars. Net energy shortfalls? Shortfall from what line. At present we waste a lot of oil because it is plentiful and cheap (relatively) and the first thing we will do is stop wasting it for things like central heating. The general economy will of course undergo changes but it is always changing anyway so this will just be the newest change it has to adapt to. There will be a lot of opportunities for those that seek and find substitutes and new more efficient methods and these new activities will balance out those employed now by wasting cheap oil.


FWIW, such models are based on the reality of depletion.

The energy industry, like the rest, can only make more money given cheap energy. With depletion, there is no such thing.

Oil is not plentiful and cheap given production costs.

There are no substitutes, especially given the point that what affects oil also affects other material resources.

Obviously, the world economy will undergo changes, but likely not in the way you imagine. The reason is simple: it's a capitalist system, which means it relies on cheap energy to keep lots of credit propped up to supply the same plus goods to growing middle classes worldwide. Without that cheap energy, the system starts weakening, but we don't notice it because performance is measured using the same credit that's easily created.

In the end, in order for that change to take place while maintaining the same maintain, we will need ecological footprint to rise on average worldwide. That will require at least one more earth.

Of course, that's assuming that the world population does not increase further.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 06 Jan 2018, 23:08:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')
The energy industry, like the rest, can only make more money given cheap energy. With depletion, there is no such thing.

What nonsense. If energy is expensive the energy companies will use some expensive energy to produce a lot of expensive energy and sell it to their customers for a large profit. EroEI is king regardless of price levels.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Oil is not plentiful and cheap given production costs.

86 million barrels a day is plentiful and $60 to $66/ barrel is cheap. And that price range includes the production costs.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')There are no substitutes, especially given the point that what affects oil also affects other material resources.
While there may not be a substitute for jet fuel there are alternatives to just about everything else and as we are looking at a decline in supply not a complete cut off of all oil we will muddle through.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Obviously, the world economy will undergo changes, but likely not in the way you imagine. The reason is simple: it's a capitalist system, which means it relies on cheap energy to keep lots of credit propped up to supply the same plus goods to growing middle classes worldwide. Without that cheap energy, the system starts weakening, but we don't notice it because performance is measured using the same credit that's easily created.

In the end, in order for that change to take place while maintaining the same maintain, we will need ecological footprint to rise on average worldwide. That will require at least one more earth.

Of course, that's assuming that the world population does not increase further.

That last anti capitalism socialist rant doesn't deserve a reply.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 07 Jan 2018, 11:54:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')FWIW, such models are based on the reality of depletion.


How would you know...unless your daddy figure Matt Savinar used his palm reading skills to tell you?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')The energy industry, like the rest, can only make more money given cheap energy. With depletion, there is no such thing.


Since the end of cheap oil, circa 1970 or so, the oil industry has made money quite nicely on more expensive oil.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')Oil is not plentiful and cheap given production costs.


Oil is not as plentiful as it once was, because we've used 1.3T barrels, leaving us maybe another 6-7T maybe? So the good news is that plentiful doesn't matter as much as you give it credit for in this case. Ask your palm reader, even he knows what it means when only 20% or so of something is used, it means you've still got 80% to go!
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 08 Jan 2018, 02:11:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
')What nonsense. If energy is expensive the energy companies will use some expensive energy to produce a lot of expensive energy and sell it to their customers for a large profit. EroEI is king regardless of price levels.


How is there a large profit is cost is also expensive?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')86 million barrels a day is plentiful and $60 to $66/ barrel is cheap. And that price range includes the production costs.


It was predicted in 2005 that production would easily meet demand expected to exceed 115 Mbd by 2016.

And didn't the oil industry borrow heavily to increase production?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')While there may not be a substitute for jet fuel there are alternatives to just about everything else and as we are looking at a decline in supply not a complete cut off of all oil we will muddle through.


There are no substitutes in terms of what a global capitalist system needs.

And muddling through is precisely my point. But that's the best-case scenario.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')That last anti capitalism socialist rant doesn't deserve a reply.


That's not an "anti-capitalist[,] socialist rant" but one based on biocapacity. Your basic knowledge of science is pathetic.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 08 Jan 2018, 14:18:15

So the prediction on the day oil was selling for $44.85 was that prices will never recover. And since then prices have increased 37% based on EIA stats. Thus the life of folks who think they are smart enough to predict the price of oil, even in the short the short term. Or should I say "shorty" term? LOL.

And the trend seems to show an increasing price movement. Of course that might not last another day. Or it might last thru the end of the year. Fortunately I'm not one of those silly people that thinks he cans predict the future price of oil. So I'll just still with the FACTS: since the day it was predicted that oil prices would "never recover" oil prices have recovered more then 1/3. I'll just till mid year to see where prices are see if there's any mathematical possibility for the predicted average price for 2018 to materialize. After all that's only 25 weeks away.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 08 Jan 2018, 19:13:57

18jan01 Weekly MAP 2008-19 BahamasEd Resized.jpg


We shall see as this BahamaEd chart shows the oil price taking a dive upon/while hitting roughly the Etp MAP price since 2008.
is-fast-crash-likely-pt-8-t73988-220.html
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 29 Jan 2023, 11:56:07

Big Oil Saw Record $199Bn Profits In 2022 But 2023 Will Be Different

ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, TotalEnergies, and BP reaped almost $200 billion collectively last year but fears of an economic slowdown, plunging natural gas prices, cost inflation and uncertainty over China’s re-opening are dimming the outlook for 2023.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 29 Jan 2023, 14:06:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '[')url=https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/big_oil_saw_record_199bn_profits_in_2022_but_2023_will_be_different-28-jan-2023-171890-article/?rss=true]Big Oil Saw Record $199Bn Profits In 2022 But 2023 Will Be Different[/url]

ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, TotalEnergies, and BP reaped almost $200 billion collectively last year but fears of an economic slowdown, plunging natural gas prices, cost inflation and uncertainty over China’s re-opening are dimming the outlook for 2023.

I'll be interested in the quarterly earnings call for Exxon next Tuesday. XOM eased back a bit Friday but I'm still up 153% from my purchase price and the dividend is one of my best earners.
With the ongoing war in Ukraine and it's effects on Russian oil production and exports I do not see oil or gas prices falling very much this year even if a world wide recession takes hold.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 31 Jan 2023, 18:23:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', ' ')While there may not be a substitute for jet fuel there are alternatives to just about everything else and as we are looking at a decline in supply not a complete cut off of all oil we will muddle through.


What alternatives? Solar panels made from oil and coal? EV's with $80,000 worth of oil and coal based materials built into them? Wind turbines made of oil derived metals and their foundations of concrete and steel made with massive amounts of oil and coal?

You have been watching too many Disney movies. You'll muddle through alright, if you can find a horse for sale and figure out how to saddle it :lol:
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 31 Jan 2023, 21:02:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', ' ')While there may not be a substitute for jet fuel there are alternatives to just about everything else and as we are looking at a decline in supply not a complete cut off of all oil we will muddle through.


What alternatives? Solar panels made from oil and coal? EV's with $80,000 worth of oil and coal based materials built into them? Wind turbines made of oil derived metals and their foundations of concrete and steel made with massive amounts of oil and coal?

You have been watching too many Disney movies. You'll muddle through alright, if you can find a horse for sale and figure out how to saddle it :lol:

Just where did I ever say that? I believe you are miss quoting me or tagging a quote to the wrong poster.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 01 Feb 2023, 15:44:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
') Just where did I ever say that? I believe you are miss quoting me or tagging a quote to the wrong poster.


Of course you didn't say it, you simply eluded to it and I extrapolated the logical outcome. Like your comment in the EV thread where confronted with the glaring shortfalls of the current crop of product you said "The problems with electric vehicles and their batteries are numerous but we can expect rapid advancement and solutions to be found rapidly."

That's just wishful thinking. But's lets give you the benefit of the doubt. What are these alternatives to just about everything else you said above?
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 04 Feb 2023, 15:57:51

Hard to know what the alternative will be before it is discovered or invented. You can build solar panels using hydro power but most of that is currently being used to full capacity so perhaps they will move to solar and wind farms to run the panel and battery factories. A lot of deep mining equipment is already electric to avoid having to vent out exhaust fumes and that equipment can mine lithium and copper just as easily as it does coal.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 05 Feb 2023, 19:07:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
')While there may not be a substitute for jet fuel there are alternatives to just about everything else...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '.')..lets give you the benefit of the doubt. What are these alternatives to just about everything else you said above?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
')Hard to know what the alternative will be before it is discovered or invented.


Ok, I see. So there are none, Yet.

Well the thing is, I have to make decisions about my future in the 'Now' world, not some future world. I have seen too many futurist plans fail to come to fruition in my lifetime and don't want to waste my money and mental energies pursuing dead ends. The consequences of peak oil, which was a science based schema, with practical examples like the US conventional oil peak back in the 1970's, these consequences are just what we are seeing today. The wars in the Middle East, the food and energy shortages, the rampant inflation, the collapse of the global wealth engine, all these are coming to pass as was projected.

Yes I live a good life and want for nothing, but much of that has to do with the decisions I made reading forums like this back in the day. The experts that laid out the map for peakoil, the geologist Colin Campbell et al, never wasted time discussing solar panels and windmills etc as a solution to the dilemma. No doubt because it was obvious to them (as it is to me today) that, after construction costs, they could not offset but a tiny fraction of the energy we exploit from oil coal and gas. The whole idea that we can live in the future as abundantly as we did in the 20th century is diametrically apposed to the scientific projections of peakoil.

But people in general like to think positively, like to have hope, and that is why the waters are muddied with all these "Well if we just do this! We will all be eating peaches and cream in the future" But I don't see any of that, I see hundreds of average people in Austin Texas eating out of dumpster bins because of a blackout. Green Bay-area retirement home residents being evicted because their Medicaid no longer covers the cost of living there.


More than 250 people fought over discarded food in dumpsters after a power outage last week at an H-E-B grocery store in Texas, authorities said.

“We had over 250 people fighting in the dumpsters because someone posted ‘Free Food!’” Travis County Constable Precinct 4 George Morales III posted on Facebook. “This is not free food.”
https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/05/us/texas ... index.html

We don't eat out of dumpsters in Australia, not yet, but the day will come.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 05 Feb 2023, 21:11:36

As the cost-of-living crisis continues, dumpster diving has become a lifesaver for some families doing it tough

Now Ann is one of thousands of Australians struggling to put food on the table as prices rise — and those dumpsters behind shops are ripe for plundering. Food insecurity on the rise. One in six Australians are experiencing food insecurity, and community services are facing increasing demand to step in.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 10 Feb 2023, 06:30:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', '[')attachment=0]18jan01 Weekly MAP 2008-19 BahamasEd Resized.jpg


We shall see as this BahamaEd chart shows the oil price taking a dive upon/while hitting roughly the Etp MAP price since 2008.
http://peakoil.com/forums/is-fast-crash ... 8-220.html


Yes, we see. As usual, such predictions for ETP and the MAP do NOT age well, again and again and again.

In the real world, oil prices (WTI) are currently $80 as I type this and have recently been over $120. (As a reminder, WTI is the oil type the ETP MAP referenced). Also, per Macrotrends, which I've found to be rather reliable, the average 2022 WTI closing price was nearly $95.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2516/wti-cr ... aily-chart

And remember, a large proportion of ETP advocates of your ilk were claiming that if crude prices DID rise much over $100, it would bankrupt the system, re civilization being unable to "afford it" at "high" prices.

As I've pointed out endlessly for over a decade re perma-doomers claiming high oil prices mean financial collapse, some people whining about high gasoline prices (often for political reasons) does NOT equate to the economy collapsing, even if they like driving a gas guzzler or two.

And as good as the global economy was during the 2010-2014 high WTI price period puts the total lie to such prices being ruinous. Inconvenient, yes. Ruinous -- not even close.

And yet, your ilk NEVER seems to learn re ETP and the MAP. Give it up.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 11 Feb 2023, 14:30:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')
As I've pointed out endlessly for over a decade re perma-doomers claiming high oil prices mean financial collapse, some people whining about high gasoline prices (often for political reasons) does NOT equate to the economy collapsing, even if they like driving a gas guzzler or two.


Not if prices go up, and then come back down quickly. I wonder what the average price was over the past 14 years? As to economic collapse, well there is outright obvious GFC style collapse and then there is what you could stealth collapse, or managed collapse. Economic collapse is best measured by living standards rather than falsified government metrics. I know that here average living standards have been falling for 20 years and more, roughly corresponding with Australia's peak in oil production back around 2000.

The US standards have been falling since the early 1970's, corresponding to your conventional peak. Another way of saying conventional peak would be to say the peak of "cheap oil" High EROEI oil.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 11 Feb 2023, 18:01:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')
As I've pointed out endlessly for over a decade re perma-doomers claiming high oil prices mean financial collapse, some people whining about high gasoline prices (often for political reasons) does NOT equate to the economy collapsing, even if they like driving a gas guzzler or two.


Not if prices go up, and then come back down quickly. I wonder what the average price was over the past 14 years? As to economic collapse, well there is outright obvious GFC style collapse and then there is what you could stealth collapse, or managed collapse. Economic collapse is best measured by living standards rather than falsified government metrics. I know that here average living standards have been falling for 20 years and more, roughly corresponding with Australia's peak in oil production back around 2000.

The US standards have been falling since the early 1970's, corresponding to your conventional peak. Another way of saying conventional peak would be to say the peak of "cheap oil" High EROEI oil.

If you have to claim your doom by making up government conspiracies instead of using clear financial data, you lack any credibility.

The clear financial data (which the government collects lots of) shows plenty of overt financial progress for the masses over time. Far from perfect, but MUCH farther from "collapse".

For example, the median US household income has risen to nearly $70,000 for roughly 2020 to 2022.

https://www.census.gov/library/visualiz ... ncome.html
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 11 Feb 2023, 18:08:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', ' ')I wonder what the average price was over the past 14 years?

Well, you're on the internet, where data is plentiful.

Let's try to eyeball a rough answer for WTI, a good US benchmark.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil

Click on the 25Y below the chart to see the 25 year chart, and the past 14 years starts in early 2009.

So looking at WTI for 2009 to now, about $70 a barrel (10 bucks below the current line on the chart, showing the current price), looks about right. It's certainly a decent back of the envelope sort of estimate.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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