[onlooker]

Not quite, I am not totally on the side of the Etp crowd who maintain that prices will stay permanently low. I believe in the more general notion that we will have wild swings in price as we have had already. However, I expect the abrupt swings to take place within a generally downward trending price regime as the demand is suppressed permanently because of progressively less energy entering the economic system. At the end of the road though we may have very high priced oil for only a few scattered exclusive buyers.

[ennui2]

As long as you don't predict ETP zombies in 4 years, that almost sounds reasonable.

[onlooker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'A')s long as you don't predict ETP zombies in 4 years, that almost sounds reasonable.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Preface. Oil is finite. Period. Don’t be fooled by news stories that peak oil is dead, or we have reached peak demand. They’re all nonsense. Gail Tverberg at ourfiniteworld.com is especially good at explaining this. Worse yet, what we have left has been and is not being drained as quickly as possible to pay the capital back, and that increases the amount of oil that will be left in the ground forever, which could have been produced with more responsible methods. But the very nature of capitalism is profits now, not 10 years from now. This article makes the case that there are lessons to be learned today from the gigantic 2001 giant Ladyfern natural gas reserves in Northeastern British Columbia. But due to the tragedy of the commons, where too many companies exploited this reservoir too quickly, much less was produced than

[AdamB]

Oh this one was a great read!! A blogger with no experience in anything related to geology or oil field engineer referencing another blogger as a keen study of peak oil (having declared it in 2008) with her actuarial skills, and the first comment out of the gate is a riot!

Before alice deletes it I thought I should include it here as an appropriate and thoroughly accurate riposte.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')what a wonderful story! It is amazing that one story like this seems to have more power than the other, documented and researched and published by real scientists, as to the direction that known oil and gas reserves move.

https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/sir20155091

And of COURSE peak oil isn’t dead, as a matter of fact 2019 is the 100th anniversary of the first documented US peak oil call in 1919!

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')
The views expressed in this post are those of the author alone. This assessment is based on the data in the 2017 BP Statistical Review of World Energy available here. As such it uses that review’s definition of oil which is crude and condensate and natural gas liquids, uncompensated for their different energy contents or values of refined product components. (Click to enlarge) Figure 1: World Oil Production 1990 – 2017 This analysis was prompted by a chart by Ovi showing that Non-OPEC production less Russia, Canada and the United States has been in decline since 2004. That decline rate is 0.25 million barrels/day/annum. It had previously risen strongly from 1990. (Click to enlarge) Figure 2: Production Rate Change 2007 – 2016 The United States LTO patch is widely credited with having caused the oil price collapse of 2014. American production had risen by six

[AdamB]

Nice charts showing how easily the peak oilers were fooled by just a hesitation in oil production growth...and undoubtedly one induced by economics. Talk about the keystone cops of oil and gas.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'N')ice charts showing how easily the peak oilers were fooled by just a hesitation in oil production growth...and undoubtedly one induced by economics. Talk about the keystone cops of oil and gas.

[aldente]

it must have been a stillbirth to begin with ( hence MY personal favorite)

[Revi]

Peak oil isn't dead, but it's extremely unpopular. It's about the least popular theory out there. Which doesn't make it untrue, but right now it's about 12 years since it hit it's peak of popularity. It's just old enough to be unfashionable but not old enough to be cool again. In about 8 years it will be a vintage theory, and on it's way to being a golden oldie!

[Newfie]

^^^^ +1

[aspera]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ar Sales to Top 90 Million Globally for First Time: Results fueled by rebounds in Western Europe and emerging markets such as Brazil and Russia.

The Wall Street Journal, Jan. 2, 2018 2:17 p.m. ET

Global sales of passenger cars and trucks likely surpassed 90 million for the first time in 2017, the latest indicator that demand for conventional automobiles remains strong even as driverless cars and ride sharing get increasing attention.

[onlooker]

The premise of the question is bonkers. Oil is a limited resource. So a peaking and subsequent reduction in its production was always a foregone conclusion

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('harrisonlw', 'I') feel like this thread is long overdue.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'T')he premise of the question is bonkers. Oil is a limited resource. So a peaking and subsequent reduction in its production was always a foregone conclusion

[onlooker]

Because we have NOT sufficiently prepared for a post peak oil world. And because the signs are numerous and tangible that our energetic/economic world system is approaching serious disruptions and systemic failures
See Trade Off: Financial system supply-chain cross contagion – a study in global systemic collapse by David Korowicz

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'B')ecause we have NOT sufficiently prepared for a post peak oil world. And because the signs are numerous and tangible that our energetic/economic world system is approaching serious disruptions and systemic failures
See Trade Off: Financial system supply-chain cross contagion – a study in global systemic collapse by David Korowicz

[onlooker]

You prefer to get the comforting MSM info, I prefer to get the truth/reality. See my signature

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'B')ecause we have NOT sufficiently prepared for a post peak oil world.

[ROCKMAN]

Revi - Lots of butts to kick here but since I consider you a distant compadre I choose to kick your ass. LOL Peak oil is not a theory. It is a statistical parameter. And as such it can neither be alive or dead. The only question to answer is whether we've reached that final global statistical benchmark or not. And as the recent surge in US production proved it might take many decades to prove we've reached global peak oil.

And I don't worry much about how "oil" is defined. I'm a petroleum geologist of 4 decades and not once in all that time have I used a single bbl of crude oil. But I have used a sh*t load of products made from crude oil. And I didn't give a f*ck what the source of that oil was...just like 99.999% of the other consumers out there. All my motor fuel could come from processing fry grease from McDonalds. As long as gasoline is available and at a price I can afford I couldn't care less.

Which is why years ago I pointed out that some metric based on refinery products, such as gasoline and diesel, was the numbers to watch. Not completely unrelated to crude oil production stats but eliminated such arguments as defining or classifying various sources of "oil".

No, peak oil is not dead...it was never alive. somewhere out there (or just right behind us) the global peak oil daily production statistic exists. And that exact date will have little to no bearing on anyone's life compared to all the other aspects of the peak oil dynamic.