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Why do you remain at PO.COM?

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Why do you remain at PO.COM?

Unread postby Cog » Sat 30 Dec 2017, 19:53:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'S')ure pstarr. I'm always interested in another dystopian prediction. Come at me bro.

Why would I take up your challenge, you don't read and discuss. You haven't shown the slightest bit of interest in oil business, production or geology. You know nothing. You are a wasp nest without stingers. It's fun to poke you.


When one of your doomer buddies or you yourself say "the end is night" or "fast crash is inevitable", you don't leave much room to discuss anything. You have established a fait accompli. How can one respond to such a claim except to ridicule it? You might be surprised to know I do read everything posted here and consider it for whatever value it contains.
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Re: Why do you remain at PO.COM?

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 30 Dec 2017, 20:41:02

Cog,

You have been on a streak with solid trolling for about two weeks.

The threads I’ve seen were not folks making any fast crash predictions.

Your response here is baloney.

Man up, look in a mirror.
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Re: Why do you remain at PO.COM?

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 30 Dec 2017, 20:46:03

Newfie, I am okay with Cog he has his opinions, others have theirs
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Re: Why do you remain at PO.COM?

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 30 Dec 2017, 20:56:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')Ther is no more a single 'doomer' meme or person anymore than there is a single date or prediction. It is an honest search for the truth.


There you go again. No pete, for most doomers, it has nothing to do with an HONEST search for truth. Zealots BELIEVE first, then they cast about for rationalizations.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Why do you remain at PO.COM?

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 30 Dec 2017, 21:02:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoghGoner', 'P')eak oil is more relevant than ever.


Sort of true. Now that we have suffered through several, we know that we can discount its effects and move on to more important doom topics.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoghGoner', '
')... -- but oil is finite and more difficult to extract every year.


A wonderful statement that was just as true on new years day 1860 as it will be day after tomorrow. And...?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoghGoner', '
')$60 oil would have been shocking 20 years ago and we will probably be back to over $100 before this decade runs out.

This site is the only one to survive US shale. TOD and LATOC RIP.


$60 oil sent doomers into oilgasms on this very website...nowadays, after a bunch of goal post moving...they aren't bothered by it at all. And $100/bbl oil was being extrapolated on company reserve reports allowing escalation back in 1979. So now, 39 years later, you are saying the same might happen? Lions and Tigers and Bears!! We should all begin to build bunkers and collect guns, gold and ammo immediately!! (wasn't that one of the old cool topics to talk about, before peak oil became glut and lower prices? :lol: )

LATOC....if only the unemployed lawyer who is now not even a lawyer would come back and tell us more stories about how peak oilers on that site were religious groupies looking for daddy figures, I'm sure we could all laugh together over how silly those folks are! Except the ones that have reformed of course, or found their daddy figures.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Why do you remain at PO.COM?

Unread postby GoghGoner » Sun 31 Dec 2017, 08:08:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', 'I')'m just waiting around to see when the "peakers" actually call it right, the point when we see the real peak, never to be repeated global maximum in production.

It will be interesting to see if anyone can actually call the real peak correctly, as in not always saying it'll come soon and eventually be right.


Price was completely discounted in the past as a future predictor of supply but now we say, "oil has peaked at $40." The past two years have shown us the minimum price to maintain supply at least for the current time. The goal posts will always shift due to costs, investor interest, money supply, etc...
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Re: Why do you remain at PO.COM?

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sun 31 Dec 2017, 08:52:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoghGoner', 'P')eak oil is more relevant than ever. Yeah, the US has produced quite a bit of shale oil, Saudi Arabia is still pumping about the same amount, and Russia hasn't showed significant decline -- but oil is finite and more difficult to extract every year. $60 oil would have been shocking 20 years ago and we will probably be back to over $100 before this decade runs out.

This site is the only one to survive US shale. TOD and LATOC RIP.


I see that son of TOD http://peakoilbarrel.com/ is still going strong and very much into mathematically evaluating the data as always.
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Re: Why do you remain at PO.COM?

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 31 Dec 2017, 12:09:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoghGoner', 'P')eak oil is more relevant than ever. Yeah, the US has produced quite a bit of shale oil, Saudi Arabia is still pumping about the same amount, and Russia hasn't showed significant decline -- but oil is finite and more difficult to extract every year. $60 oil would have been shocking 20 years ago and we will probably be back to over $100 before this decade runs out.

This site is the only one to survive US shale. TOD and LATOC RIP.


I see that son of TOD http://peakoilbarrel.com/ is still going strong and very much into mathematically evaluating the data as always.


And continuing the tradition. They declared US peak for 2015 I believe? So...has anything really changed, or do they just recycle bad ideas because they didn't pick up on the link to economics any better than TOD did?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Why do you remain at PO.COM?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 31 Dec 2017, 13:57:41

I came here in mid 2009 to learn more about oil and about energy generally, to assist me in investing in energy long term.

Since then, despite all the endless FUD from the fast crash doomers, I've learned a lot.

I stay, since thanks to all but the endlessly fact free FUDding hard crash doomers who refuse to even acknowledge facts, trends, or data (i.e those with an apparently religious bent re the near term EOTWAWKI), I continue to learn things from several members on this site.

And the world does change. Solar, Wind, battery tech, and EV's weren't on my radar to any meaningful extent in 2009. They certainly are now, for example.

For the rest of the discussions, it's mainly entertainment for me.

My main regret is that the noise/volume of nonsense from the messianic fast crash doomers is such that I have them on ignore, to waste far less time. So I see most of their input only from quotes by others, or occasionally curiously looking at a post and hoping for a change in tone or approach.

I'm thankful the site gives us the flexibility to easily screen out what we find, shall we say, consistently less than useful.

For those like AdamB and the rocks who do a lot of research and/or provide a lot of insight over time via their real world experience in the oil industry, I say thanks a lot for those contributions.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Why do you remain at PO.COM?

Unread postby jedrider » Sun 31 Dec 2017, 21:22:04

Mostly the quality of the posters. I also like a good argument once in a while, but NOT everyday as in some sites.

It is also comforting to know that doom is not tomorrow, so I have to check once in a while :-D
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Re: Why do you remain at PO.COM?

Unread postby mmasters » Mon 01 Jan 2018, 01:12:44

The people here at least do some thinking and try to glean insight, can't say much about the rest of the population lol.
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Re: Why do you remain at PO.COM?

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Mon 01 Jan 2018, 08:57:00

I'm still here because this is the smartest bunch of humans I have contact with as a group. Doesn't bother me who is right & wrong so much, there's value in reading a variety of perspectives anyway. After all these years, oil is still the bedrock of civilization as we know it, & it will run out- these are taken as givens here- despite all the conflicting positions in timing, mitigation, consequences. Most elsewhere the responses are non existent, or extreme one way or the other- corni or doomy. Here the extremes are moderated by at least a degree of reflection.
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Re: Why do you remain at PO.COM?

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 01 Jan 2018, 10:22:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'S')o this place was a way to burn excess minutes while working (and waiting for a virtual meeting group to form), then an obsession in itself (because I followed the typical member profile and thought the oil peak was imminent, followed by Ruppert's concept of collapse),then finally, a replacement for some of the discussions held at work, on an overlapping but different set of topics.

Now this place is a habit, a need, and I often am here five or six times a day.


Thanks for you honesty KJ.

Pay attention folks. KJ's obsession and visiting five or six time a day is not so much because of the complexity of the topics discussed as much as he admitted that it is a replacement to the organic social group discussions he enjoyed when employed that he missed after retirement.

This is the digital pathology that I am now exiting.

We live in a society where the organic glue that holds communities together has been destroyed. This did not start with the internet but social media came in at just the right tome to eclipse and replace that which was destroyed and it is an insidious phenomenon that at its worst can be seen in the youngest emerging generation and their relationship to Snapchat.

Read this: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/ar ... on/534198/

We know the forces that destroyed community in the USA. The death of small town America in rural areas, the isolation of suburbia, consumer culture, etc. etc. What was already fragmented created a void and social media came in to fill it. But is it a real replacement to organic community?

It isn't. It is a lazy way to replace that was destroyed, between me and you, between my physical body and your physical body is a digital matrix. One that has an inordinate control over your nervous system. KJ visits six times a day. Cog responds to a post within 5 minutes, etc. etc.

Can you folks not see the toxicity? Have your organic lives been so lost that this is the best you can do?

I admit it is not easy to build community that was torn apart by economic and other forces outside of ones control. It is a challenge to go knock on your neighbor's door in the design of isolated suburbia and try to develop brotherhood. For some like Cog he has become so socialized in consumer suburban culture that he actually embraces and enjoys his anonymity and also being a snarky asshole. He has embodied and embraced hook line and sinker what defines the exceptional American today; afraid of social interaction, angry, snarky, etc.

This is what a digital venue creates. A big false Ersatz of what we lost. Community.

We are masters at rationality. Many of you will counter my points here and say that the complexity of human overshoot is a fascinating topic and that you derive allot of meaning from sharing this topic here in this digital community because your organic community walks around completely clueless. This is what SeaGypsy just posted. This is what also held me here for 10 years. There is a dangerous fallacy in this that I will now elaborate, this is the truth that came to me slowly the last couple of years that has caused me to now exit.

SeaGypsy's comment and my position for a long time ends up polarizing you into a position where you see your organic world of social contacts as largely clueless humans who do not want to face the truth of human overshoot. You then take refuge here with like minded folks. This results in it becoming far to easy to write off organic society because you create this "false" community of "us" here. As wonderful and brainy and insightful as we might all be we are not a replacement of this lost organic community. In fact we are enabling the division to increase because we are comforted by a digital venue that has no real substance beyond the thousands of posts that we collectively make that my very well be accurate in analysis but still at the end of the day it is virtual, all of this analysis does very very little but move in circles contained within this digital venue. And that is the toxic side of it, because it increased the divide between organic life and digital life.

There are so many aspects that the digital world is doing this to our species collectively.

As much as I will miss this community and as easy as it is to come on here every day and satiate myself with a topic that I hold closely to my heart, I refuse any longer to sacrifice my organic world with digital ersatz replacements. I will limit my internet time to just logistics of managing the flow of our guests and during the day and night I will be communing with them and the folks of the village close to us.

Who knows, because I no longer come here and I might be forced to exercise my organic social muscles in engaging my social contacts with the topics we discuss here.

For many of you with huge post counts ask yourself how the muscle tone is doing on your organic social contacts?

Again, enough said, I felt I owed this community a bit of a more in depth explanation of why I am exiting here.

Many of you are great folks with a quite mature understanding. Maybe one day we will meet each other. maybe not. In any case, best of luck in this new year and moving forward in negotiating these troubled overshoot waters.

I am putting into practice with this final post one of my new years resolutions!

Good bye!
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Re: Why do you remain at PO.COM?

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 01 Jan 2018, 10:53:07

Ibon, first off I have enjoyed reading all your posts, you will be missed. As for your thoughts, they definitely address an important aspect of the world we live in. And yes you may say that in a way we are all here caught in the virtual web. The only contrasting viewpoint I will offer is this:

The organic world is also the world of ideas. I believe ideas are just as important as the material tangible things around us in the world. So, here on this site, I have found the topics of interest and the quality of discourse good. The principal point though is that we are undoubtedly headed for MAJOR changes on our planet and not ones most would characterize as positive. So, I personally come to get an update on what is happening within the context of the overriding reality which is overshoot. This is where almost all the manners in which people speak about problems in the world falls short. They inevitably fail to make the connection with the underiding cause being our inbalance with the natural world and our unhealty impact on it overall. This is the main reason I like it here because at least here we are all to a greater and lesser degree aware of the limits to growth and frame our discussions accordingly.
P.S. I hope Ibon you reconsider.
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Re: Why do you remain at PO.COM?

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 01 Jan 2018, 11:25:19

I doubt you can find the same kind of background and intelligence mix in the “organic” world as you have here. Just as you can meet your emotional and constructive needs in this artificial environment.

Neither should be exclusive to the other. Balance.
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Re: Why do you remain at PO.COM?

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 01 Jan 2018, 14:10:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '
')Neither should be exclusive to the other. Balance.


This is where I whole heartedly disagree because of exactly the reason that there is no balance anymore. On almost all fronts the digital world is eclipsing almost "exclusively" organic reality.

It isn't worth it.
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Re: Why do you remain at PO.COM?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 01 Jan 2018, 14:35:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')Pay attention folks. KJ's obsession and visiting five or six time a day is not so much because of the complexity of the topics discussed as much as he admitted that it is a replacement to the organic social group discussions he enjoyed when employed that he missed after retirement.

This is the digital pathology that I am now exiting.

I find that perspective real interesting.

It reminds me of how "horrified" liberals are that Trump tweets. It's not the tweeting itself, which is just another technology. It's the stupid, thoughtless, somewhat random WAY he tweets, which isn't consistent with the leadership we should get from a POTUS, IMO.

Look, I'm no luddite. But OTOH, I may be the LAST person in the US (who can afford it) who will have a smart phone, unless/until I find the killer app(s) that tell me I actually NEED IT?

Because, why have my head buried in that damn thing all the time, if I don't need it? Why pay for it when I already have all the internet I want at home (and all the bandwidth and gigs I want at one low price)?

And I know, I'm not "cool" or "hip" if I carry around a book, or even an e-reader instead of the latest smart phone. I'll try to survive. :roll:

Technology does change us. I'm more connected to news and trends I'm interested in via the web than I was pre-web. I also find it harder to focus for four, much less eight or more hours on reading a book. So what? Life has its trade-offs.

People are generally social animals. Getting all upset over the technology they use to socialize, and the proximity they socialize from is misdirected, IMO.

...

As a young teenager, I would have found it absolutely fantastic and amazing if I could have played strong chess players on the web, any time I wanted. As it was, I bemoaned how difficult and inconvenient it was to travel to strong tournaments in big cities a couple/few hundred miles away, due to the expense and that I was too young to drive.

Today, kids can play games like World of Warcraft with friends and peers literally all over the world, any time they want. Or they can contemplate their navel, visit their local library (online or in person), etc. Sorry, but I don't see how having that CHOICE via cheap and commonplace technology can reasonably called a "bad thing".

Like everything else in life, balance is a good thing, IMO. For me, one of those ways of achieving that is being aware and in the real world when I'm away from home. I still have my $9 a month (all expenses considered) flip cell phone so I can communicate via text or voice, especially for any emergency.

I really enjoy physically going out and visiting various family members for "game night" now and again. We play old fashioned board games, just like when I was a kid. Young and old enjoy the games and each others' company. And everyone but me has their phone and spends time fiddling with it or answering it. Maybe a little sad, but it doesn't ruin the experience, at least for me.

I hope Ibon comes back at some point. I enjoy his POV and ideas. He could post once or twice a week or month, etc. and still participate without being "addicted" IMO. The world WILL change over time. To the extent we have choices, we can decide how to best deal with that.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Why do you remain at PO.COM?

Unread postby Cog » Mon 01 Jan 2018, 16:03:03

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ne ... a59459654c

Only 8 percent of people actually keep their New Year’s resolutions, according to one commonly cited statistic. There are many reasons people can’t stick to their resolutions, from setting too many of them to getting derailed by small failures. Setting overly ambitious and restrictive goals ― like quitting sugar when you haven’t already been making small changes to improve your diet ― is one major cause of failure. While you might initially feel inspired and energized by setting blowout goals for 2017, the luster of these resolutions fades quickly when we realize how difficult they are to keep.
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Re: Why do you remain at PO.COM?

Unread postby dolanbaker » Mon 01 Jan 2018, 16:55:16

I don't fail to keep my new year resolutions, I simply don't set any! :)
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Re: Why do you remain at PO.COM?

Unread postby GoghGoner » Mon 01 Jan 2018, 18:15:45

The suburbs do not have any sense of community where I live. I am not going to try and manufacture it, I believe in lower fossil fuel supply periods that will happen organically and there isn't much point in going against the flow.
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