[AdamB]

Average production in 1970 was 9.637 million barrels a day.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... RFPUS2&f=A

Average production last week was 9.780 million barrels per day.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sn ... _nus_w.htm

Another peak oil is dead. Long live peak oil.

The world has known this for awhile now, and the zealots...well...they will never stop singing Journey songs....

[dcoyne78]

Peak monthly output for the US C+C was over 10 Mb/d in October and November, 1970.

The most recent monthly estimate for US C+C was for Sept 2017 at 9.48 Mb/d.

See

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS2&f=M

[marmico]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he most recent monthly estimate for US C+C was for Sept 2017 at 9.48 Mb/d.

[Plantagenet]

US oil production is predicted to go up by another 500,000 to 1,000,000 bbls/day next year so no matter how you slice and dice the numbers the 1970 peak is almost certainly going to be surpassed in 2017-2018.

The rapid increase in US oil production over the last several years is entirely due to TOS development in the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Permian, etc.

Now that we're on the verge of surpassing the 1970 peak, it will interesting to keep an eye on the TOS plays. At some time in the future they will inevitably peak as well, and perhaps sooner rather then later.

Cheers!

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dcoyne78', 'P')eak monthly output for the US C+C was over 10 Mb/d in October and November, 1970.

The most recent monthly estimate for US C+C was for Sept 2017 at 9.48 Mb/d.

See

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS2&f=M

[tita]

Indeed, even if I agree that this is too early to declare that the US production exceeded the record, we can't deny that it is probably going to happen.

But facts are facts. We can't mix them to suit our POV. Weekly estimates didn't existed in 1970, so we have to stick to monthly and annual estimates for accurate comparisons. Which is gonna take several months for the monthly record.

[KaiserJeep]

FWIW, I don't think M. King Hubbert's ideas were wrong. If technology had remained static rather than advancing at an incredible rate after digital data processing became an available tool, then I think oil production would have declined on the curve predicted by MKH. But computing enabled advances in both oil exploration and oil extraction that kept the production curve rising. I believe traditional and conventional oil production peaked in 2008 for the world - but at the Rockman is fond of reminding us, the terms traditional and conventional are fairly meaningless.

Still, that oil took millions of years to cook from the remains of ancient algaes and krill and plankton of all types that came to rest on the seabeds of oceans that have changed considerably since then. The total supply is finite and no matter what the advances in exploration and extraction, eventually we will reach the end of the age of oil. My own oft-repeated prediction is on the order of 120 years. I did NOT say "the close order of 120 years", meaning I would be surprised if it happens in less than 12 years or more than 1200 years.

I simply think that attempting to forecast the end of oil any closer than that, given the quality of the data we work with, is foolishness. Not only will exploration and extraction technology advance further at a difficult to anticipate and uneven rate, but there are extraneous factors like overpopulation, conventional warfare, and advances in renewable energy that enter into economic model prediction. Nor does the certain fact that the KSA and other major producers use anal extraction of both oil reserve data and actual oil production figures help the accuracy of such predictions.

Then there is the whole matter of will the oil production decline resemble the smooth bell curve that MKH predicted or the Seneca Cliff. I'd say the jury is still out on that, since production is still increasing. (YES, recent production has obsoleted even this chart.)

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'F')WIW, I don't think M. King Hubbert's ideas were wrong.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')M. King Hubbert did his math wrong----his equations didn't work and so his hypothesis has been falsified. Nonetheless global oil production will inevitably peak in the future....and perhaps fairly soon.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')M. King Hubbert did his math wrong----his equations didn't work and so his hypothesis has been falsified. Nonetheless global oil production will inevitably peak in the future....and perhaps fairly soon.

[GHung]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')lant wrote; "Well....Hubbert was just plain wrong. In the US Hubbert pointed to the 1970 peak in oil production and predicted that it would thereafter decline. That hasn't happened. In fact, the US is now exceeding the 1970 peak in oil production. This falsifies Hubberts hypothesis----he did his math wrong. "

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GHung', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')lant wrote; "Well....Hubbert was just plain wrong. In the US Hubbert pointed to the 1970 peak in oil production and predicted that it would thereafter decline. That hasn't happened. In fact, the US is now exceeding the 1970 peak in oil production. This falsifies Hubberts hypothesis----he did his math wrong. "

[AirlinePilot]

Who here knows what we were "counting' as oil in 1970 versus now? Is/was it the same thing? I dont have time atm to research this but methinks there are a few folks here who do know the answer to that question. I have my idea about that, but since I do not know the fact I wont comment further.

[AirlinePilot]

I found this.....dated 2014...seems as of that time there is some disagreement about what condensate should be, who counts what, and real numbers.....hmmmm. I wonder what we were counting in 1970?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil- ... BU20141008

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')M. King Hubbert did his math wrong----his equations didn't work and so his hypothesis has been falsified. Nonetheless global oil production will inevitably peak in the future....and perhaps fairly soon.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'I') found this.....dated 2014...seems as of that time there is some disagreement about what condensate should be, who counts what, and real numbers.....hmmmm. I wonder what we were counting in 1970?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil- ... BU20141008

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'W')ho here knows what we were "counting' as oil in 1970 versus now? Is/was it the same thing? I dont have time atm to research this but methinks there are a few folks here who do know the answer to that question. I have my idea about that, but since I do not know the fact I wont comment further.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'W')ho here knows what we were "counting' as oil in 1970 versus now? Is/was it the same thing? I dont have time atm to research this but methinks there are a few folks here who do know the answer to that question. I have my idea about that, but since I do not know the fact I wont comment further.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'W')ho here knows what we were "counting' as oil in 1970 versus now? Is/was it the same thing? I dont have time atm to research this but methinks there are a few folks here who do know the answer to that question. I have my idea about that, but since I do not know the fact I wont comment further.