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Peak Permian, Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020's

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Postby rockdoc123 » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 17:49:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut there is a potential problem: these plays tend to be dominated by small independents. Companies that would not be very trusting of the Mexican govt. Not just nationalization but new "taxes". Service companies will also be concerned about moving hundreds of $millions of equipment into Mexico: you also need a permit to move equipment out of a foreign country. More then one service company has been forced to sell their equipment for pennies on the dollar in other countries because they couldn't get an export permit.


There were a few US E&P companies who participated in the recent bid rounds but certainly not a hoard of them. My view is that the terms are not particularly great (although my understanding is they are looking at easing them further), you can make more money chasing plays on the US side of the border if you know what you are doing than on the MX side. The service company thing is dominated by Big Blue and Big Red but there are a few small Canadian and US service companies and a number of Mexican ones. A lot of the service companies walked away from MX a couple of years ago as PEMEX wasn't paying their bills. The MX gov't was raiding PEMEX operating budget which meant PEMEX was unable to pay everyone. They chose to pay Schlumberger and Haliburton given they do so much business with them. There were a number of small service companies who were owed millions of dollars. I believe PEMEX has paid most of them now, but some were discounted by as much as 50%.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Postby Plantagenet » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 18:26:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', ' ')Contemporaneous to the event....it is... PEAK OIL!!!!


Every peak in oil production isn't "PEAK OIL!!!!!"

Please go back and study the definition of peak oil, and then try again.

Cheers!
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Postby Plantagenet » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 18:28:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 's')ome of the most prolific CONVENTIONAL oil trends in S Texas run right up to the Mexican border. Thousands of wells. Without a data base I have no idea how they have or haven't been extended into Mexico. And that doesn't include relatively new plays like the Eagle Ford. But there is a potential problem: these plays tend to be dominated by small independents. Companies that would not be very trusting of the Mexican govt. Not just nationalization but new "taxes". Service companies will also be concerned about moving hundreds of $millions of equipment into Mexico: you also need a permit to move equipment out of a foreign country. More then one service company has been forced to sell their equipment for pennies on the dollar in other countries because they couldn't get an export permit.


Exactly right.

Theres a whole passel of reasons fracking hasn't taken off in Mexico the way it has in Texas.

Meanwhile, the existing rate of oil production in Mexico declines further each year.

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Postby rockdoc123 » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 18:37:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')heres a whole passel of reasons fracking hasn't taken off in Mexico the way it has in Texas.


the major one being the leases for shale gas exploration were just awarded a few months ago. Pemex drilled a few wells but they had almost a zero exploration budget.

It's a bit early to declare doom when they have effectively just started.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Postby Plantagenet » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 18:53:52

People counting on the new drilling in Mexico's Burgos district to help Mexico reverse its falling oil production numbers are going to be disappointed.

The EIA says the Burgos play is a Natural Gas play. Theres no large oil resource there---its almost all NG.

Burgos-Mexico-NG-EIA

This supports what I was saying earlier in this thread----its very unlikely this new activity will reverse the decline in oil production in Mexico that began in 2004-5 when Cantarell went into decline. This is consistent with the peak in Mexican oil production being ca. 2004-5.

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Postby AdamB » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 20:23:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'P') - To add to Doc's post: some of the most prolific CONVENTIONAL oil trends in S Texas run right up to the Mexican border. Thousands of wells. Without a data base I have no idea how they have or haven't been extended into Mexico.


There are obvious trends of development in the offshore that stop EXACTLY at the American/Mexican border. As obvious as the nose on an exploration geologists face.

I can't vouch for the onshore because the geologists giving the presentation were focused offshore.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Postby Plantagenet » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 20:33:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')There are obvious trends of development ... that stop EXACTLY at the American/Mexican border.


??????

Actually, rock formations like the Eagle Ford don't stop "EXACTLY" at international borders. Geology is no great respecter of international boundaries----its not like the rock formations have to show a passport to cross to the other side of the border or something! :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Parts of the Eagle Ford in the US are more prospective for oil, and other parts are more prospective for NG. The oil-rich part of the Eagle Ford doesn't extend far into Mexico but the NG-rich parts do.

This means the the predictions by Adam and Crockdoc that Mexico will be fracking its way to oil riches in the Burgos basin are puff and nonsense, because there isn't much of the oil-rich petrofacies of the Eagle Ford shale in the Burgos basin---the resource there is likely to be mainly natural gas, just like the NG-rich parts of the Eagle Ford that are found directly across border with the USA.

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Postby AdamB » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 21:00:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', ' ')Contemporaneous to the event....it is... PEAK OIL!!!!


Every peak in oil production isn't "PEAK OIL!!!!!"


Fine. You really want me to prove that you are wrong? (your current idea, not the one you'll change it to after I demonstrate why you are wrong) Pay attention now, and don't be changing the subject after I prove how Mike Lynch is right, and you are just trolling because I still don't believe you are as stupid as you are pretending...i.e. imitating pstarr, for whom it might be perfectly natural or chemically induced.

In 2006 Jeffrey Brown was pretending to know something about resource economics. All he managed to do by this date in time is demonstrate why you don't ask a geologist economic questions, but he was quite popular in the peak oil days, even posted some occasional gibberish here about peak oil. Here is Jeff in 2006, saying that peak oil is a done deal.

The title of his article?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('westtexas', '
')Has oil peaked? Yes.


The first sentence in the article.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('westtexas', '
')The Texas oil industry knows all about peak oil, because we’ve already gone through it.


So Jeffrey uses...you guessed it...THE PAST TENSE. You do understand how these work in the English language, right Plant?

Texas has peaked. Done deal. Decades ago. The article says 1972.

Just 9 years later in 2015, the demonstration of why you don't listen to geologists when it comes to resource economics becomes visible here.

Of importance to this proof is this quote...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')tatewide (Texas) oil output is expected to reach 1.28 billion barrels this year, exceeding the state’s record of 1.26 billion barrels set in 1972, Ingham said.

Now, I don't care what the expectation was, I just need the number for that OTHER peak oil...you know...the one that Jeffrey claimed was a done deal....decades earlier?

1.26 billion barrels, here let me make the next step easier for you....1.26 billion = 1260 millions for the year. Now the hard part. I divide by 12 to get the monthly number. 105,000 thousands of barrels per month. Now we check out what happened with Texas. Here is the EIA info. I've already converted the fuelfix article units so you don't need to worry about needing a calculator (considering the difficulty you have with logic, I didn't want to make your predicament worse)

Image

See that OTHER peak in 2015? 110,000 thousands, 110,000,000 barrels/month. Looks like #3 might be warming up in the batters box as well.

Peak oil according to a tried and true geologist, happened in Texas and awe shucks, it was in the past and done. Except it wasn't. Because peak oils are given credit for their existence on a cartesian coordinate system, the second coordinate being TIME. Just as Hubbert did it, just as Jeffrey did it, just as the EIA and IEA plot domestic and global oil production, you can't avoid the second coordinate, and peak oilers do EXACTLY what Jeffrey did every chance they get. They declare peak oil...and then look stupid later, and make up excuses as to why they now look stupid. Or in the case of some folks, begin changing the definition of oil, and "pulling a Trump" i.e. "bald faced lying". Pstarr is famous for this one.

Now stop whining about how easy it was to prove you wrong...again....and for goodness sake stop TROLLING, or at least go do it to pstarr or someone who won't notice.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('plantagenet', '
')Please go back and study the definition of peak oil, and then try again.

Cheers!

I did. You are welcome. If you need help using a calculator to get the units right to understand the vast complexity of the EIA Texas production chart, PM me and I'll explain it all keypunch by keypunch.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Postby AdamB » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 21:04:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')Theres a whole passel of reasons fracking hasn't taken off in Mexico the way it has in Texas.

Meanwhile, the existing rate of oil production in Mexico declines further each year.

Cheers!


Until they maybe get things figured out, and repeak the entire country again. :-D :-D :-D

Cheers!
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Postby AdamB » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 21:08:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')There are obvious trends of development ... that stop EXACTLY at the American/Mexican border.


??????

Actually, rock formations like the Eagle Ford don't stop "EXACTLY" at international borders.


Plant, will you get around to READING already? I didn't say any rock formations stopped at the border. I said "obvious trends in development".

And I'm not about to explain how discovery process modeling reveals this information across a given petroleum system (or even what that is) if you can't even be bothered to read what I wrote rather than just making up some other interpretation hoping that others can be lulled into the same error you just made.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Postby rockdoc123 » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 21:16:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his means the the predictions by Adam and Crockdoc that Mexico will be fracking its way to oil riches in the Burgos basin are puff and nonsense, because there isn't much of the oil-rich petrofacies of the Eagle Ford shale in the Burgos basin


Whereas most of the Eagleford extension into the Burgos basin is in the drier gas window (which I have said already), about 1/3 is wet gas with yields over 70 bbls/MMcf.

And there are a couple of additional shale basins (Tampico and Misantla), the U. Jurassic Pimienta Fm (close equivalent with the Haynesville shale) is thought to be a better reservoir than the Eagleford.

EIA suggests technically recoverable reserves of 13 billion bbls of oil and condensate from shales in Mexico which is larger than their current conventional proven reserves. This is hardly insignificant given KMZ with reserves around 4 billion bbls produces at 800,000 bopd.

Further to that, as I just said above the first bit of exploration being done after the bid round awards to parties other than PEMEX has resulted in a couple of very large conventional discoveries. There will be more to follow.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Postby Plantagenet » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 21:16:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')There are obvious trends of development ... that stop EXACTLY at the American/Mexican border.


??????

Actually, rock formations like the Eagle Ford don't stop "EXACTLY" at international borders.


I didn't say any rock formations stopped at the border. I said "obvious trends in development".


What do you think is being developed? Its the Eagle Ford Shale. And what do you think the Eagle Ford Shale is? Its a rock formation.

And guess what? The Eagle Ford shale occurs on BOTH sides of the US-Mexican border. :lol: :lol: :lol:

Do you get it now?

Cheers!

Image
Look! The oil producing part of the Eagle Ford goes a short distance into Mexico while the gas-producing part of the Eagle Ford shale extends quite a ways into Mexico!!!

Sheesh!
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Postby AdamB » Mon 18 Dec 2017, 00:10:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')There are obvious trends of development ... that stop EXACTLY at the American/Mexican border.


??????

Actually, rock formations like the Eagle Ford don't stop "EXACTLY" at international borders.


Learn to read. I didn't say a word about the Eagle Ford.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')There are obvious trends of development in the offshore that stop EXACTLY at the American/Mexican border. As obvious as the nose on an exploration geologists face.


Feel free to find that Eagle Ford in the offshore genius. Until then, learn some geology and stop being an ignoramus.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Postby Plantagenet » Mon 18 Dec 2017, 01:13:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', ' ')I didn't say a word about the Eagle Ford.


I know.

Thats why I'm making fun of you.

Your belief that you can locate where oil is by following "trends of development" instead of locating oil bearing rock formations like the Eagle Ford shale is pretty funny. :lol:

Image

Cheers!
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Postby Plantagenet » Mon 18 Dec 2017, 16:41:21

EIA and OPEC predict US shale oil will add ca. 1 million bbls/day of new production in 2018

5-oil-factors-watch-2018]

The US TOS shale biz is currently losing money. If they increase oil production by 1 million bbls/day will they make up their losses on volume? :)

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Postby AdamB » Mon 18 Dec 2017, 16:48:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', ' ')I didn't say a word about the Eagle Ford.


I know.

Thats why I'm making fun of you.


Excellent. As long as you need to just make stuff up to make fun of it isn't me writing something down incorrectly. You can make up whatever garbage you'd like, it is still a free country.

Now run along and claim some other formations producing for more than half a century were just discovered because you read an article in the MSM somewhere and didn't understand it, see who you can get to fall for it.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Postby Plantagenet » Mon 18 Dec 2017, 17:09:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', ' ')it isn't me writing something down incorrectly...


?????

I directly quoted the part of your post I thought was funny.

I even explained why I thought it was funny.

You know---its OK to laugh at things you see on the internet.

Laughing is a good and healthy thing.

I usually get one really good laugh every time I look at PeakOil.com.

Thanks for making me laugh!

lol

rofl

Have a great day!

ImageCheers!
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Postby AdamB » Mon 18 Dec 2017, 17:19:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', ' ')it isn't me writing something down incorrectly...


?????

I directly quoted the part of your post I thought was funny.


You have a nice day Plant. Let me know if you want to discuss anything without the trolling.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Postby Plantagenet » Mon 18 Dec 2017, 17:35:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '.') Let me know if you want to discuss anything without the trolling.


I'm happy to discuss anything with you, Adam, but the last four times we've discussed things the discussions have ended with you calling me a troll. Every time its the same routine.

This isn't unusual on the internet. There are always a few people on internet forums who lack self control and inevitably wind up getting wee-wee'd up and calling other people names. In fact its so common that its become a general rule on the internet that the person who goes around calling every else a troll is usually a troll themselves.

whats-up-with-calling-people-trolls

"calling someone a troll has become a form of trolling in it's self."

IMHO its more fun to discuss things without all the name-calling. I suggest you try that---see how long you can discuss something without getting angry and flaming the other poster. If you disagree with something you read---even something that tics you off, try laughing at it instead of getting angry. Its more fun that way.

Thats just my suggestion, of course.

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Postby AdamB » Mon 18 Dec 2017, 22:03:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '.') Let me know if you want to discuss anything without the trolling.


I'm happy to discuss anything with you, Adam, but the last four times we've discussed things the discussions have ended with you calling me a troll. Every time its the same routine.


Not sure I called you a troll? But I definitely said you were trolling. Because this behavior appears to be a recent event, I don't automatically assume you are now a troll. More likely you became bored, and just decided to have some fun with folks.

And it is the same routine. You say something wrong, I correct you, you change the subject and pretend I said something I didn't, I point out the particulars of your trolling in some condescending way, and you pretend you were right all along.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plaqntagenet', '
')IMHO its more fun to discuss things without all the name-calling. I suggest you try that---see how long you can discuss something without getting angry and flaming the other poster.


And my recommendation is maybe you ease off using terms you are unfamiliar with, maybe stop making up things and pretending the other person said them when they didn't? It isn't difficult, I'm sure with a little practice you can resist the urge to keep doing this.

"Getting angry"...good one! Sorry Plant, but as you pointed out, this is the internet, there is no skin in the game here.
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