[Newfie]

9 billion, if energy and food inputs remain constant or improve.

There is precious little data supporting either of those things happening.

[evilgenius]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'O')f course not all rich are filthy, I am an excellent example

I certainly did not mean to suggest that all rich are filthy, but few of us here would deny that the vast majority of those who accumulate wealth, especially vast amounts of wealth, got their due to their ambition of status, power, greed. Believe me, and I have witnessed this in myself and in many others, once you start to accumulate a certain wealth and power it tends to go to your head.

I made a conscious choice to disengage, become a recluse of sorts, take another road. If you weren't born into it once you accumulate the first couple of million it becomes very hard to resist the power games and sense of superiority that goes along with this. It takes an evolved soul to willfully disengage from the alluring seduction that wealth brings and the heady power trip that follows.

This is not something American or even unique to the Industrial Revolution, let's recall a wise biblical saying most of you are familiar with

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')esus recorded in the synoptic gospels: I tell you the truth, it is hard for a rich man to enter the kingdom of heaven. Again I tell you, it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter the kingdom of God.

[SeaGypsy]

As brought to you by some populist evangelical no doubt. I've heard other pseudo rationalisations based on geographical features, euphemisms. They don't run true with the gist of the new testament. Lay down what you have & follow Me. They took only their tunic, bowl & staff, went from house to house, did not tarry. Etc etc. Modern evangelism is a joke next to what was laid down as the model in the book of Acts.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '9') billion, if energy and food inputs remain constant or improve.

There is precious little data supporting either of those things happening.

[evilgenius]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'A')s brought to you by some populist evangelical no doubt. I've heard other pseudo rationalisations based on geographical features, euphemisms. They don't run true with the gist of the new testament. Lay down what you have & follow Me. They took only their tunic, bowl & staff, went from house to house, did not tarry. Etc etc. Modern evangelism is a joke next to what was laid down as the model in the book of Acts.

[Newfie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '9') billion, if energy and food inputs remain constant or improve.

There is precious little data supporting either of those things happening.

[Cog]

Oh the noes. Someone might have more wealth than me. Whatever shall I do? I know, come on peakoil.com and cry about it.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '9') billion, if energy and food inputs remain constant or improve.

There is precious little data supporting either of those things happening.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')Fair enough. And thank you for a sensible (i.e. straightforward) answer. I have NO problem with people predicting longer term doom or serious problems, with BAU growth. In fact, I tend to agree with them, which I have said in the past (well aware of, and despite the track record of the moderate, stumbling along, forecast doing OK for the span of written history).

My problem is with the fast crash doomers, which keep on repeating, over and over again, that doom is in our face, and pretending like they made no wrong prediction MANY TIMES, over the past decade or so. I count zerohedge as a leading clown in that group.

[KaiserJeep]

As I have said multiple times, Doom is not an event, it is a process. IMHO the Doom we all speak of began for the USA around 1980 and has been gaining momentuum gradually since then.

That momentuum however, is positively OWNED by the momentuum of 330 Million citizens getting up and going to work everyday. I was reminded of this once again as I returned from Wisconsin after visiting the Grandkids between Thanksgiving and Christmas. We took off from Chicago after dark:

...and flew west, arriving at Silicon Valley also after dark:

...and in between, we saw many other places:


My point would be, that the efforts and desires and dreams of 330 million people are a mighty force to be reckoned with. It will not be derailed, it will not be crashed, and it will not even take much notice of Donald Trump and all his greedy minions, leastaways no more than it would have noticed Killary and her murderous ways and greed, possibly even greater than that of the Donald.

Make no mistake, I ABSOLUTELY AM a believer in Doom. We ARE SO SCREWED when we run out of FF's to burn, and carbon to spew into the air. The backlash from the sudden cessation of FF burning will almost certainly provoke the next Ice Age, and we will gradually slide down into 50,000 years (more likely 80,000 years) of ice and the global ecology will RESET.

Because, you see, all that carbon dioxide is the only thing saving our fat and lazy behinds now.

My best guess as to WHEN this will happen is on the order of 120 years. Note I did not say "the close order of", which means I don't expect it in less than 12 years or more than 1200 years. Note also that this is a far more pessimistic interpretation than my former bounds of 20 and 2000 years, with the mean at 200. Because you see, I am getting fearful and cranky and just plain tired in my old age.

Sorry, but the accuracy of the data allows no closer estimate. The primary date is and always will be dominated by human psychology, how we respond to the initial hardships. This dominant factor is why exactly NONE of the economic models we bandy about here are worth a heartfelt "Damnation!".

Since I by and large consider both the R's and the D's as equally harmful to the USA, and believe that both political parties are SO OBSOLETE and SO HARMFUL to my beloved country, I'll have to say that which party controls the US government and when and for how long, is largely irrelevent. The optimal state IMHO is when the damage they do is minimalized by swapping dominance every 4-12 years.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', '
')My best guess as to WHEN this will happen is on the order of 120 years. Note I did not say "the close order of", which means I don't expect it in less than 12 years or more than 1200 years.

[KaiserJeep]

Well, I think we peaked years ago and are several years into the "bumpy plateau" as the alternative oils and gases ebb and wane. But the increase in population and resultant increased demand for FF's is delaying the inevitable.

What comes next is the switchover to renewables at an increasing pace as the FF's steadily increase in price. Now I start to part company with the bulk of the PO members. Because they are largely dependant upon FF's to manufacture, renewables will also steadily increase in price. Renewable energies never will be cheap, even in a relative sense, and they will increase in cost forever.

Increasing poverty and a steady decline in the quality of life as per capita energy consumption declines is the heritage we will leave to our children and their children. The Third World is suffering already, and their avaricious demand for energy-intense lifestyles is doomed and futile. They will begin to die off in increasing numbers as the energy shortage curbs agricultural output, while some semblance of current First World lifestyles persists for a few decades more, but only in the current First World.

The USA will completre more of a transition to renewable energies than will any other country, and will retain a larger population longer. But inevitably we too will get priced out of the lifestyles we now enjoy. My oft-related description of the world to come has no Middle Class, only the 1% and their Toadies. This world is a bare 3-8 decades away.

Now go and watch the 2013 movie Elysium. That is where our world is headed.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', ' ')My oft-related description of the world to come has no Middle Class, only the 1% and their Toadies. This world is a bare 3-8 decades away.

[KaiserJeep]

The 1% is also shrinking, and the only production needed will be craftsmen and artists.

The missing Middle Class means that plumbers, carpenters, mechanics, and so forth don't exist except in the minute numbers needed to service the 1% needs. The 99% live in government housing, on the government dole, eating kibble from machines and watching video. They don't need to know how to cook, read, travel, or make conversation. It is a grim world, portrayed with utter clarity in the movie above.

We and our kids are the last generation to have middle class lifestyles. Their kids won't ever know work or advanced education or gourmet food or travel to interesting places. They will not own cars, boats, planes, or other toys. The Third World is there already.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', ' ')My oft-related description of the world to come has no Middle Class, only the 1% and their Toadies. This world is a bare 3-8 decades away.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', ' ')The 99% live in government housing, on the government dole, eating kibble from machines and watching video.

[Cog]

I'd be more apt to kill someone who wanted the absolute power of life and death over me than to serve them. Even it was very good kibble.

[KaiserJeep]

In this grim world there is no education such as we had. There are no small arms because you have no income, no vehicle for hunting critters, and no knowledge of the Second Amendment or the traditions of hunting wildlife.

All of these changes to lifestyle come about because there is no cheap energy for manufacturing, for vehicle fuels, or for agriculture for a variety of stimulating and tasty foods, or raising food critters.

If you look around you, you can detect the decades-long reduction of the Middle Class which (I really believe) started to go away in the 1980s. Some people moved up into Upper Middle status, a bunch more (about 51% by government statistics) saved nothing whatsoever for retirement, don't own homes, and live today in the wretched conditions of those who must both rent and eat while totally dependant upon Social Security checks. As somebody noted above, modern American culture does not include the care of Seniors.

Those retired who exist in the upper 49% are divided between the 1% and those who have less, attempting to live comfortably with what they earn via part time employment in a disappearing job market. Perhaps they do own a home or (in an entirely unplanned state of poverty) are attempting to pay off their mortgage and afford health insurance while living on the government check, supplemented by an entirely inadequate pension or part time employment, perhaps as a WalMart greeter. The 1% is feeding off the life savings of these folks, and aquiring their real estate holdings, through purchase if desireable, or through foreclosures if they are less fortunate or have health issues and do not have a financial cushion.

Does this description sound familiar to anyone? This has been going on for decades, with predatory health care costs and low, near-zero interest rates that effectively suppress Middle Class retirement earnings. Perhaps you yourself are attempting to live under the conditions I described.

In about 3 weeks they have been saying I will get my first Social Security check. Meanwhile I am paying a pool removal service to remove my pool and fill in the hole, and then I will pay for professional landscaping for the whole house. It was a necessary but painful decision, because one of my neighbor's trees (which he planted in the early 1980's and was about 15' tall when I first saw it) is now 150' tall and grew roots into our pool and busted up the concrete. Our own tree in the front yard died in the drought two years ago, and I got a day of entertainment playing with my chainsaw and the 9000lb winch on the front bumper of my Jeep Wrangler. But the pool removal equipment damaged the front lawn and I want top dollar for the house and Silicon Valley buyers want "move-in" ready with no swimming pools. So say goodbye to our remaining cash from my retirement bonus.

Meanwhile the Nantucket home will end the mandated year-long probate in July 2018, and we will move in, and start making improvements to that property, which indeed looks as if two old folks had lived there in the last part of their life. Hopefully by then we will have sold this home and parked some of the cash in a beach property in Wisconsin. Call me a skeptic, but I don't trust Donald Trump with the economy, and feel that having cash or owning many types of investments is a bad idea. So I'm parking money in prime real estate. We have discussed building one or two more Nantucket residences for rental income.

Meanwhile life continues. My kid and her husband are in the "terrible twos" with the twin Grandkids, whose new favorite word is "No!", and who fight like brother and sister. But damn it was cold in Winter in Wisconsin. Summer there would be pleasant, with Winter on the Island. Life is if not exactly like the pleasures of retirement I pictured, not bad on the whole.

[Newfie]

So often folks here talk about the 1% when what they really mean is the 1% OF MY CULTURE. And since we are all Westerners that is relatively consistent.

But in a WORLD context we are ALL 1%ers.

So just think of this, when you speak of 1%ers, most of the world thinks that is YOU. Do you fit the model you so surely speak of?

[KaiserJeep]

Well, I certainly don't feel like I am a 1%er in my own world. The wife still works and complains bitterly about her tight-fisted accountant bosses. We still shop at Costco and Target, I do all the cooking at the present time and I still do a variety of household chores and easy stuff like painting and lawn care. You could easily mistake me for a handyman most days.

I believe we can live a comfortable if not flashy lifestyle, own a couple of cars and a toy or two, and have some extra room for the kids to visit. Soon we may have two homes to shuttle between (and pay taxes and upkeep on) and more time for hobbies. The worries about idiot politicians, peak oil, and resource wars still remain - but I don't yet have a warm and comfortable feeling of security, and perhaps I never will. That may have been too much to expect.

So actually I was born into Lower Middle Class with two parents that raised themselves from the abject poverty of the Great Depression and had a household full of kids. I worked my way (barely) into Upper Middle Class status and reasonable comfort. I am technically a millionaire but that doesn't feel very different from being a working stiff, I find. I can plant my growing behind in a First Class seat at the airline, but the Filipinos who run the TSA here treat me if anything more rudely than before.