PeakOil is You
Seneca Cliff
Re: Seneca Cliff
by Tanada » Sun 11 Dec 2016, 08:31:04
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'Y')es, this period is unlike any prior, it is without precedence. Just consider the following. We have a world civilization who is living totally dependent on unsustainable practices in the air, water, food and soil. Consider the enormous size of our world population and how day after day it is degrading the state of the planet as a whole. Consider, how many of our natural bounty is being depleted ie. water aquifers, minerals, oil, phosphorous etc. Some of these are non renewable resources on a time frame that would involve humanity. Then on top of all that, we have AGW. Perhaps we could reboot and rebuild after the effects of peak oil and other consequences including the downfall of our civilization and mass die off. However, given that now AGW seems to be at the nascent stages of runaway, it just seems to much to withstand for any higher organisms including ourselves.
This is the mistake the Doomers continually make. Heck I have bought into it from time to time myself and I am about as moderate on the future as you will find around these parts. The more complex a system the more dedicated work it takes to keep the system functioning at full capacity. That doesn't mean if something runs short, like energy, the system instantly collapses into chaos and nothingness. Parts of the system are shut down to keep more vital parts working. In current American culture that would mean food production and haulage continue while some hairdressers and barbers lose their jobs. The local golf pro and golf course cease to function, but the really swanky ones where the uber rich and pro's play keep functioning. The local pet food store closes shop, but the local grocery store stays open and they have some generic dog and cat food for our pets, just not the fancy stuff.
The assumption that the climate flipping over into hothouse state will cause extinction of everything is just an assumption based on doomer wish fulfillment.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alfred Tennyson', 'W')e are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Seneca Cliff
by Pops » Sun 11 Dec 2016, 11:21:50
So looking at the definitions of the words, the operative description is
Society = "ordered"
civilization = "advanced"
So by those definitions didn't USSR collapse? It became less ordered as various janitors sold suitcase nukes to N Korea and it became less advanced as GDP (read: oil production) crashed.
At the time I'm sure those with the levers figured it was armageddon, no matter what they did, oil production and cash income fell.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut in the mid-1980s, Soviet oil production topped off at 12 million barrels a day due to poor management, old technology and lack of investment. And then oil production started to drop. As oil fields ran dry, the authorities spent more cash to coax more petroleum from aging reservoirs with massive water flooding programs.
But these technological fixes didn't put much of a dent in the nation's oil depletion rates.
"However, once scarcity increased substantially, the communist system saw declining oil production which in turn could have caused their inefficient economic system to finally decline... They experienced peak oil in the system they had and they collapsed."
A good read.Society = "ordered"
civilization = "advanced"
So by those definitions didn't USSR collapse? It became less ordered as various janitors sold suitcase nukes to N Korea and it became less advanced as GDP (read: oil production) crashed.
At the time I'm sure those with the levers figured it was armageddon, no matter what they did, oil production and cash income fell.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut in the mid-1980s, Soviet oil production topped off at 12 million barrels a day due to poor management, old technology and lack of investment. And then oil production started to drop. As oil fields ran dry, the authorities spent more cash to coax more petroleum from aging reservoirs with massive water flooding programs.
But these technological fixes didn't put much of a dent in the nation's oil depletion rates.
"However, once scarcity increased substantially, the communist system saw declining oil production which in turn could have caused their inefficient economic system to finally decline... They experienced peak oil in the system they had and they collapsed."
The USSR collapsed because their political system allowed peak oil and could not come up with a replacement.
When they reordered their politics, oil production returned. It was political peak oil — a Seneca Cliff.
More recently, had the global central banks not invented a bunch of money in 2009-11 (on top of all they had dreamed up previously that caused the bubble to begin with) in order to support oil prices and the economy generally, the world might have gone in a similar direction. There was definitely oil, just like there was in the USSR in '88, we just didn't have the tech and cash to get it.
My point is, disorder and retreat can be political events as much as environmental.
--
In some ways the US today feels eerily similar to what I imagine the USSR did at the peak. I need to read some Orlov. Strangely, we've been convinced the system isn't working just at the time it is. So we've decided to pull out all the stops to make us great again— and it seems to me we've elected the very same brand of cronies that divvied up the USSR, perhaps the selfsame individuals, who knows? I see a strong push to increase oil profits (and every other) and privatize Everything.gov from rangeland to SoSec/Medicare.
I believe that just as surely as I believed we'd go into Iraq at it's first mention post-9/11
.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Seneca Cliff
by Revi » Mon 12 Dec 2016, 12:20:42
I agree Pops. We are going to see the people who get in there divvy up what's left, and then leave the country for the next bunch of thieves. Its' been done a lot here in Maine. The liquidators come in and buy up what's left of an industry, sell off whatever they can, and then sell off the carcass. It's the late stage where it cannibalizes itself.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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The Seneca Cliff Explained as a Network Phenomenon: a Three
by AdamB » Wed 06 Dec 2017, 20:03:24
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
A Three Dimensional Collapse Overview Model In this post, Geoffrey Chia illustrates one of the fundamental characteristics of the "Seneca Effect", also known as "collapse," the fact that it occurs in networked systems dominated by feedback interactions. This is a qualitative interpretation of collapse that complements the more quantitative models that I report in my book "The Seneca Effect." (U.B.) A post by Geoffrey Chia The Limits to Growth was published in 1972 by a group of world class scientists using the best mathematical computer modelling available at the time. It projected the future collapse of global industrial civilisation in the 21st century if humanity did not curb its population, consumption and pollution. It was pilloried by many “infinite growth on a finite planet” economists over the decades. However, updated data inputs and modern computer modelling in recent years (particularly by
')
A Three Dimensional Collapse Overview Model In this post, Geoffrey Chia illustrates one of the fundamental characteristics of the "Seneca Effect", also known as "collapse," the fact that it occurs in networked systems dominated by feedback interactions. This is a qualitative interpretation of collapse that complements the more quantitative models that I report in my book "The Seneca Effect." (U.B.) A post by Geoffrey Chia The Limits to Growth was published in 1972 by a group of world class scientists using the best mathematical computer modelling available at the time. It projected the future collapse of global industrial civilisation in the 21st century if humanity did not curb its population, consumption and pollution. It was pilloried by many “infinite growth on a finite planet” economists over the decades. However, updated data inputs and modern computer modelling in recent years (particularly by
The Seneca Cliff Explained as a Network Phenomenon: a Three Dimensional Collapse Overview Model
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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