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Peak Permian, Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020's

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Postby rockdoc123 » Thu 07 Dec 2017, 20:43:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e also know that water injection began in 1964 and the water cut had reached about 35-37% by 2003---some 15 years ago, and it is almost certainly significantly higher now since more and more water flooding has been going on for the last 15 years. We know from the 2015 technical paper I link to above that the water cut has reached 98% in at least one area of Ghawar. And we know that Saudi Aramco has started a pilot CO2 EOR project to see if they can improve oil recovery----something that is usually done in very mature oil fields where the oil production rate is at risk of dropping.


Well first off, as I said before the EOR flood was conducted in a part of the field that has been completely swept, it has been close to injectors for 50 years. One of the SPE papers mentions that in fact the wells that were re-entered for testing had a zone of high oil saturation at the top of the well, the CO2 injection study is being conducted at the bottom of these wells where water saturation is high but there is still some minor oil saturation that they want to see if they can make mobile.
AlOtaibi, F et al, 2019. Remaining oil saturation measurements for CO2-EOR pilot in Saudi Arabia. SPE 188146 MS
And if you had read what the Saudis who are in charge of the CO2 injection project said you would not be suggesting that they are doing it because they need the extra oil production. As I pointed out above.
from the Kokal et al paper SPE 181729 MS I already mentioned twice
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s part of Saudi Aramco's environmental stewardship program (Al-Meshari et al. 2014), the company has recently embarked on its first carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) through a CO2-EOR demonstration project in one of its carbonate reservoirs. It is part of a multi-pronged effort involving the company's strategic carbon management program aimed at finding technological solution to reduce CO2 emissions. It must be emphasized that Saudi Aramco does not require EOR oil at a production level for decades to come, this project is being pursued primarily to demonstrate the feasibility of sequestering CO2 via EOR in the Kingdom.

The amount of water cut is not a number that is useful in determining remaining reserves. As both Rockman and I have pointed out on many occasions fields produce at very high water cuts (above 90% ) for many years, in fact many fields with decades of production history started out at high water cuts due to very high vertical permeability in the reservoir and an adverse mobility ratio.
What we do know is that OOIP by all estimates is somewhere between 190 and 210 Gbbls. And Aramco is pretty adamant that they will see at least 70% recovery from Ghawar. In another thread here somewhere I outlined what the total production from Ghawar had been in 2009 and then projecting the 5 MMB/d forward you end up with a total production number that leaves you with somewhere around 30 years or more at the current production rate. And the other key point is that the two largest reserve auditing firms in the world Gaffney Cline and DeGolyer and MacNaughton have audited all of SA reserves. The comment after the audit was that their assessment is not appreciably different from Aramco's and definitely not smaller. When the IPO enters the market those reserve audits will become public record either through the SEC if they list in New York or the London Stock Exchange if they decide to list there (or possibly both).
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Postby Plantagenet » Thu 07 Dec 2017, 21:25:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The amount of water cut is not a number that is useful in determining remaining reserves.


No one ever said it was.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'm')any fields with decades of production history started out at high water cuts due to very high vertical permeability in the reservoir and an adverse mobility ratio.


Of course. But thats totally irrelevant to Ghawar because the water there is coming from a program of water flooding designed to enhance oil recovery. Sheesh---don't you even understand that the water cut at Ghawar is a direct result of the water flood program going on at Ghawar? :lol: :lol: :lol:

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Sheeeesh! The water cut at Ghawar results from the water flood program. Get it now?

The water flood program at Ghawar began in about 1965---Saudi Aramco is pumping about 7 million gallons of seawater each day into the periphery and lower parts of the Ghawar reservoir to try and flush the remaining oil out and towards the surface. In a water flood of this type, increasing water cuts are to be expected as the oil-water line rises and more and more water enters the producing wells through time.

And from the limited public data available, water cuts are increasing in Ghawar just as you would expect from water flooding. While the Saudis don't release much data, from the few reports available we do know that the water cut was about 32% in 2003 according to one report, and ranged up to 38% from 1993 to 2003 in another report as shown in the figure I posted above. By 2006, a report staes, North Uthmaniyah's water cut was about 46%---almost 50% higher then the number found in he earlier report . And more recently, according to the 2015 technical paper published in JPT that I linked to above, the water cut in the area where the pilot CO2 EOR project is being done was as high as 90-98%.

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Postby rockdoc123 » Thu 07 Dec 2017, 22:35:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')f course. But thats totally irrelevant to Ghawar because the water there is coming from a program of water flooding designed to enhance oil recovery. Sheesh---don't you even understand that the water cut at Ghawar is a direct result of the water flood program going on at Ghawar?    


It doesn’t matter the source of the water It could come from water fairies for that matter. Higher water cuts at a producing well are dealt with exactly the same way whether it is natural water production or injected water. Part of the mega projects undertaken by Aramco was to increase water and gas handling capacity for just this reason. In point of fact the injected water has to have basically the same chemistry as the reservoir water or you create all sorts of problems which can reduce mobility. Perhaps rather than trying to be smug you should educate yourself a bit on oil and gas developments. From what I can tell you know diddly squat about petroleum geology/engineering. That doesn’t seem to stop you from making stupid comments however. :roll:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n a water flood of this type, increasing water cuts are to be expected as the oil-water line rises and more and more water enters the producing wells through time. 


This is a simplistic view and basically incorrect. Many of the producing wells in Ghawar have had water cuts reduced significantly through various interventions since 2003. The placement of MRC wells is specifically designed to keep water cut to a minimum and that all happened post 2003. As an example water cut in some wells in Haradh and Abqaiq were reduced to zero from 40% according to one SPE publication (do I really need to go and find that again?. But once again, water cut is not a serious problem if you are set up to handle adequate disposal. In fact, a ton of oil production is coming from behind the water flood front where oil saturations still remain high.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hile the Saudis don't release much data, from the few reports available we do know that the water cut was about 32% in 2003, and ranged up to 38% from 1993 to 2003 as shown in the figure I posted above. By 2006, North Uthmaniyah's water cut was about 46%---almost 50% higher then the number found in he earlier report . And more recently, according to the 2015 technical paper published in JPT that I linked to above, the water cut in the area where the pilot CO2 EOR project is being done was as high as 90-98%. 


Jesus wept. Do you realize how big the field is? The area where the high water cut was encountered was purposefully measured in the bottom of the reservoir in a zone that was very close to injectors, had been shutin a long time ago and which the full field model demonstrated was subject to streaming (i.e it had the best chance of complete sweep) you would know that if you actually read the papers on the CO2 Demonstration Project. They are not producing from that zone so it would not appear in an overall water cut determination for the field. This is a small area and does not speak to Ghawar as a whole. You can’t take a small area that is completely swept and suddenly say that water cut applies to the whole field…that is basically stupid. Water floods do not work that way, never have, never will.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Postby Plantagenet » Fri 08 Dec 2017, 18:29:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')f course. But thats totally irrelevant to Ghawar because the water there is coming from a program of water flooding designed to enhance oil recovery. Sheesh---don't you even understand that the water cut at Ghawar is a direct result of the water flood program going on at Ghawar?    


.... the water It could come from water fairies ....


????

Why the nonsense about water fairies? Obviously the water in the water flood program at Ghawar couldn't come from water fairies --- except in your fevered imagination.

Image
Unless you've got some pretty good evidence that water fairies are responsible for injecting 7 million bills of seawater per day into Ghawar, your hypothesis that the water could come from water fairies is just plain silly.

Cheers!
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Postby rockdoc123 » Fri 08 Dec 2017, 18:38:30

As I said it wouldn't matter if it did......produced water is handled exactly the same. So please stop with the stupidity, I realize it's a big step for you.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Postby Plantagenet » Fri 08 Dec 2017, 19:48:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', 'p')lease stop with the stupidity, I realize it's a big step for you.


You're the one who made up the nonsense about the CO2 EOR project at Ghawar being part of KSA's commitment to cut CO2 emissions in accordance with the Paris Accords---when the Saudis never committed to cut CO2 emission in the paris accords.

Its very stupid for you to make things up when other people here know more about these topics then you do.

And then you started talking about the water cut numbers at Ghawar being a product of the permeability of the field, when its actually a result of the water flooding project.

Again you are making something up instead of dealing with reality. Why not just admit there is a huge waterflooding project going on at Ghawar, and water floods in oil fields gradually displace the oil with water so the water cut increases through time?

And now you're blathering about water fairies and the water at Ghawar? Why? Why waste everyone's time with such nonsense?

I really don't get why you post all this nonsense. You clearly know something about the oil biz---but instead of posting about the thread topic your posts are full of water fairies and made-up lies about Saudi CO2 cuts. Thats why they read like something from cloud cuckoo land.

Its almost like your goal at this site is not to intelligently discuss these topics, but instead to derail conversation and divert the thread with nonsensical posts so you can start attacking other posters with ad homs----I've seen you do this several times in other threads, and here you are doing it again in this thread.

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SHEESH!

Cheers!
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Postby rockdoc123 » Fri 08 Dec 2017, 23:30:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou're the one who made up the nonsense about the CO2 EOR project at Ghawar being part of KSA's commitment to cut CO2 emissions in accordance with the Paris Accords---when the Saudis never committed to cut CO2 emission in the paris accord


Don't be an ass. I quoted from the papers written about them specifically doing this to deal with CO2 and I never, ever mentioned the stupid Paris Accords, you did and then tried to turn this into a different argument. I don't give a crap about the Paris Accords and apparently the Saudis don't either but they still have their own internal goals to this extent for what ever reasons they do. They are out front on this, it is published in numerous articles for you to claim it is something different puts you in the Bizarro world with Short and others.. What I pointed out was they have their own commitments to greenhouse gases. If you bothered to read the papers you purport to have you would understand this. The project is their means of dealing with CO2 mainly and secondly seeing if they can get some extra oil as a by-product. The Saudis have been adamant about this is a number of papers. Are you and idiot?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ts very stupid for you to make things up when other people here know more about these topics then you do.


what exactly are you talking about? You had no idea that the Saudis were doing this mainly for CO2 storage, you read one online JPT paper and then suddenly thought you knew what was going on. There is a number of papers on this in SPE and elsewhere that specifically speak to the fact the main reason this Demonstration Project is going on is to look at CO2 sequestration. I gave you two of those SPE papers do I need to do more. This is well understood in the industry what is happening here but you developed a special interpretation based on what you read. You are completely off base according to what the Saudis have said as to their reasons here.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') really don't get why you post all this nonsense. You clearly know something about the oil biz---but instead of posting about the thread topic your posts are full of water fairies and made-up lies about Saudi CO2 cuts. Thats why they read like something from cloud cuckoo land.


Made up lies about Saudi water cut. Please prove that. You had no idea what it was you were reading. They were talking about water cut in an already abandoned part of the field. That doesn't speak to water cut in the producing part of the field where it is actually measured. And unlike you, I have spent 30+ years in this industry and, indeed a good chunk of it working in the Middle East and, as well, looking at Saudi Arabia for the gas rounds a number of years ago. I understand what is going on there, I had too. You, however, don't have the background or the sense to actually read the publications that are out there.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ts almost like your goal at this site is not to intelligently discuss these topics, but instead to derail conversation and divert the thread with nonsensical posts so you can start attacking other posters with ad homs----I've seen you do this several times in other threads, and here you are doing it again in this thread.


I'm sorry, but you have made an entire fool of yourself here. You purport to understand why Saudi Arabia is doing the Demonstration Project in Uthamaniyah but it seems you have actually never read anything other than something you found on the internet you did not understand. As I have posted above (3 times now) the Saudis are saying they do not need to do EOR for several decades (which fits with my calculations of remaining reserves) but are undertaking this to reduce their carbon footprint.

As to diverting with nonsensical posts....then why do you keep posting pretty much everywhere photos/pictures of incredibly stupid shite?

You want to question my background? Well let me put this out for you after having to debate your "I read this on the internet but I never actually read the paper" approach. I have been in this industry as I said for a number of decades. I managed, hired and fired many geophysicists over that time. I have to say I never dealt with one who didn't actually do the research before he opinioned or actually made projections based on no data or bad data. In fact after this discussion and the ongoing one we had in the Antarctica thread where you claimed all sorts of thing but had obviously never read the paper the only conclusion I can come to is you are not a geophysicist by degree as you claimed nor one of note. I suspect you are a geophysical technician who seems to think he knows more than he does. Or perhaps you are a mining type geophysicist who has dealt with EM and all those other things but doesn't have a frigging clue about oil and gas. No matter,
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Postby Plantagenet » Sat 09 Dec 2017, 01:26:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', ' ')ass


Your potty mouth is overflowing. Please close your mouth and flush again.

Cheers!
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Postby AdamB » Sat 09 Dec 2017, 12:58:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou're the one who made up the nonsense about the CO2 EOR project at Ghawar being part of KSA's commitment to cut CO2 emissions in accordance with the Paris Accords---when the Saudis never committed to cut CO2 emission in the paris accord


Don't be an ass. I quoted from the papers written about them specifically doing this to deal with CO2 and I never, ever mentioned the stupid Paris Accords, you did and then tried to turn this into a different argument.


Plant really does seem to specialize in that. Did the same thing to me for posts and posts after they got caught out pretending something was "discovered"...a half century after it was. Change the subject quick, pretend the question was something else, howl at the moon to distract.

I asked Plant why all the apparent trolling, as best I could tell that's all it was.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Postby Plantagenet » Sat 09 Dec 2017, 15:06:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', ' ')I never, ever mentioned the stupid Paris Accords


You said the Saudis were undertaking the pilot CO2 EOR program to---and I now quote you---- "aid in their commitments regarding reducing greenhouse gas impacts.."

If these aren't the commitments they made when Saudi signed and ratified the Paris Accords, then what "commitments regarding reducing greenhouse gas impacts" are you referring to?

Cheers!
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Postby rockdoc123 » Sat 09 Dec 2017, 17:38:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')hen what "commitments regarding reducing greenhouse gas impacts" are you referring to?


Saudi Arabia has it's own goals to shrink it's carbon footprint which is the first part of the carbon management strategy they have spelled out in the Carbon Management Technology Roadmap. They have been on top of carbon storage and sequestration as a means of offsetting GHG emissions since 2001.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Postby Plantagenet » Tue 12 Dec 2017, 14:35:56

I wish you guys would stop quarreling and just post about the thread topic. Come on---lets talk peak oil!
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Postby Plantagenet » Tue 12 Dec 2017, 15:12:47

Of course you are right, Peter, but there is no point arguing with a troll like crockdoc. We all do it---but it doesn't go anywhere. HAVE A GREAT DAY!
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Postby Plantagenet » Tue 12 Dec 2017, 15:31:44

No one expects much production growth from the Bakken and Eagle Ford anymore, but the Permian is expected to grow and grow and grow. Oil Market projections call for US oil projection to double....and its almost all is supposed to come from the Permian

just-how-dependent-oil-markets-are-on-tight-oil-delivering

So the whole game for US TOS shale is now the Permian. And if the Permian peaks the way the Bakken and Eagle Ford have done----then there isn't another Permian out there. It will be all downhill from there for US TOS production, just like its already downhill for global conventional oil production.

If the world doesn't find a new source of oil then it will be.....wait for it...... peak oil.

Remember peak oil? Its still coming.....its just been delayed about 15-20 years by the unexpected oil production from US TOS.

Cheers!
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Postby AdamB » Tue 12 Dec 2017, 16:32:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'I') wish you guys would stop quarreling and just post about the thread topic. Come on---lets talk peak oil!


We did. When it happened globally in 1979, and then again in 2000, 2005, 2006, 2008 and 2015. You mean you MISSED IT!!!!
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Postby AdamB » Tue 12 Dec 2017, 16:41:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')Remember peak oil? Its still coming.....its just been delayed about 15-20 years by the unexpected oil production from US TOS.

Cheers!


Really? So then it looks like the EIA estimates from the early 2000's were the best guess at the time, I believe their date was 2037. Boy were all those amateurs pretty stupid, declaring it all those other times!!
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Postby rockdoc123 » Tue 12 Dec 2017, 17:18:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')ockdoc the self-professed Dr. of Oil is the prime opponent of ETP. He argues that it is impossible,and even pointless theory. He refutes the resulting model. He questions whether oil production net-energy (total useful energy that is returned from the production system) actually declines.


What I have said about ETP is it makes assumptions that are not true, and it is meaningless given decisions made on Energy are based on economics and that is tempered by supply and demand. There is a perfectly good theory that has worked to predict the swings in oil prices for decades and it is what oil companies use to temper their activities. I haven’t questioned anything about “net energy” because I really don’t care….it doesn’t govern the oil and gas business, never has and never will. And my opinion on this is backed up by literally thousands of oil executives and analysts around the world.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')r. Oil questions whether such declines can be extrapolated from water cuts increases and source-rock permeability declines. Without critiquing nor defending the original thesis. He calls others who are interested in the Etp stupid and wrong.


You and Short understand virtually nothing about petroleum geology/engineering yet you make stupid comments like this that merely serve to demonstrate you haven’t a clue. Water cuts are not increasing around the world….there is no data to support that notion and it is stupid to begin with given much of the worlds production does not have a strong natural water drive nor is it under water injection drive. And high water cut says nothing about remaining reserves as both Rockman and I have pointed out. You can have 90% water production from a reservoir right at the beginning of production with nearly zero depletion, it is a product of permeability anisotropy and perforation standoff. You can have very high water cut in a reservoir under artificial water injection if there are layers of high permeability or fractures and that with very high remaining reserves.
Source-rock permeability decline….WTF? Are you that naive that you just make jargon up and expect people to respect you for it? How exactly does permeability decline and especially so in a source rock? You can’t even have an intelligent conversation with this extreme lack of understanding of the subject matter :roll:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')et in his next breath Dr. Oil supports carbon sequestration as a carbon neutral solution for CO emissions. The guy is obviously a brain neutral.


What exactly does one have to do with the other and how does one fly in the face of the other? They don’t, they are totally unrelated which you would understand if you had any idea whatsoever about the subject matter. Many oil companies that think AGW theory is over the top and that carbon taxes etc are counterproductive to the economy still look towards CO2 sequestration as a means of lightening their legal burden through carbon credits. This is the reason Saudi Arabia is doing so, they’ve said exactly that in the press and a number of publications. Oil companies do what regulations require them to, whether they agree with them or not. Philosophy has nothing to do with it.

I think its time you change your moniker to pbrain rather than pstarr
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Postby Plantagenet » Tue 12 Dec 2017, 20:09:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', ' ')So then it looks like the EIA estimates from the early 2000's were the best guess at the time....


Not really.

If you go back and look at the EIA estimates from the early 2000s they thought that conventional oil production could grow for decades more, and they also missed the importance of TOS. They were wrong on both counts.

Cheers!

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Over the years the EIA has done a remarkably poor job of predicting the future of global oil markets
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Postby rockdoc123 » Wed 13 Dec 2017, 22:58:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'h')ttp://peakoil.com/consumption/eia-bashers-should-check-their-own-numbers


EIA bashers should check their own numbers.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Postby tita » Fri 15 Dec 2017, 10:01:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'h')ttp://peakoil.com/consumption/eia-bashers-should-check-their-own-numbers


EIA bashers should check their own numbers.

EIA does a great job in collecting and aggregating data, and making estimations or forecasts based on them.

But it is subject to some errors. Weekly estimates were below monthly estimates by as much as 300Mbbls/d in 2014. Also, jan14 STEO projected US production at 8.87 millions barrel per day in Q4 2014, while it ended at 9.24 MMbbls/d. That's a 370Mbbls/d difference... Not that much, but coupled with their projection of OPEC cuts (which turned out with max output), they ended up being grossly wrong on the outlook of supply/demand, which ended with a strong price correction.

So far in 2017, they overestimated a little bit US production in their jan17 STEO. They already reduced Q4 production estimation by 200Mbbls/d. So, was it really bashing to say they were too optimistic when they corrected themselves their projections?

They still project a 500Mbbls increase between Q3 2017 and Q1 2018... That appears optimistic. IMHO, it will take a little bit longer to get to this level, something like Q3 2018. But of course, that's just wild guess from my part, based on various data (from eia of course) and opinion around.
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