[Plantagenet]

This technical article published in 2016 indicates parts of Ghawar currently have water cuts of up to 98% (!!!!).

ATCE: Fast Start for First Saudi CO2 EOR Project

The Saudis can reduce the water cut down to 90% by doing expensive CO2 injection work, but it only makes economic sense at oil prices over $50/bbl. Thats much much worse for the Saudis then very cheap crude they've been pumping from Ghawar up until now.

This supports the idea that Ghawar is very near its peak. If the Bakken has peaked, and Eagle Ford peaked, and the Permian Basin peaks ca. 2020-21, and Ghawar in KSA peaks, then we're right back looking at a "Peak Oil" scenario ca. 2020-21.


The pilot project testing CO2 injection at Ghawar is scheduled to be completed in 2018. The 98% water cut observed in some areas and the concomitant need to start this CO2 injection work indicates Ghawar is at or near its peak.

Cheers!

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')This supports the idea that Ghawar is very near its peak.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')This supports the idea that Ghawar is very near its peak.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd KSA, which has already been pumping water into Ghawar to keep the oil flowing, has now started a CO2 injection program to try to keep the production rate up.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', ' ')The reason they are doing this is to look at the ability to increase recovery rate in some of the layers where wettability is either mixed or has switched to oil wet.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')es, the oil is pretty wet when you're getting up to a 98% water cut.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')es, the oil is pretty wet when you're getting up to a 98% water cut.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'A')s much as I hate to say this . . . Plant, you are doing a bang up job. Keep it up

Cheers

[Plantagenet]

The reason why the Bakken and Eagle Ford have already peaked is that the TOS companies drill the best areas first. When those are used up the remaining shales aren't nearly as good, and oil production falls.

Consider the Eagle Ford: The industry has drilled up to 90% of the best grade rock, but only about 30% of the largest tranche of mid-quality rock. Median peak rates for the best rock average 922 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) across 2,000 wells versus 367 boe/d in mid-grade rock across more than 5,500 wells.

2-5-billion-barrels-eagle-ford-

Wells drilled in the "best" rock at Eagle Ford are almost 3 times as productive as wells drilled into "mid-grade" shale, and the "best" grade shale is almost all used up. That means most new wells will be drilled into mid-grade rock and not be nearly as good.

Thats why the Eagle Ford TOS play has peaked.

Same story at Bakken. The best rock is used up. Its peaked.

The Permian is the only US TOS field that hasn't peaked. And insiders think it will peak in 2020-21.

CHEERS!

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hat may have been true years ago, but some parts of the field evidently have much higher water cuts now. The 2015 article from the Journal of Petroleum Technology (JPT) I cite in my post above says the EOR pilot program is being done in an area with a 98% water cut

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')You are misinterpreting what is being done.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he fact that Aramco is undertaking a pilot project to test the efficacy of CO2 EOR at Ghawar means Aramco wants to know if CO2 EOR will help them maintain production at Ghawar.

Why else would they initiate such an expensive multi-year pilot project? For the fun of it?

[aspera]

Wall Street’s Fracking Frenzy Runs Dry as Profits Fail to Materialize:
The shale-oil revolution produces lots of oil but not enough upside for investors (Wall Street Journal, Dec 6, 2017)

https://www.wsj.com/articles/wall-streets-fracking-frenzy-runs-dry-as-profits-fail-to-materialize-1512577420

Twelve major shareholders in U.S. shale-oil-and-gas producers met this September in a Midtown Manhattan high-rise with a view of Times Square to discuss a common goal, getting those frackers to make money for a change.

Good luck with that.

[rockdoc123]

If you are invested in oil &I gas and expect to see similar quarterly earnings and profits as you expect to see in retail or other businesses you need to rethink what your investment goals are. Oil &I gas companies do not plan on quarterly schedules and their yearly planning cycle is really to address cash flow balances. They look at 5 year plans as where they need to deliver. If you aren't in it for the long haul then get out. You will have your ass handed to you if you don't understand the business. And if you can't read a balance sheet you don't belong in the market at all let alone writing articles

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aspera', '[')b]Wall Street’s Fracking Frenzy Runs Dry as Profits Fail to Materialize:
The shale-oil revolution produces lots of oil but not enough upside for investors (Wall Street Journal, Dec 6, 2017)

https://www.wsj.com/articles/wall-streets-fracking-frenzy-runs-dry-as-profits-fail-to-materialize-1512577420

Twelve major shareholders in U.S. shale-oil-and-gas producers met this September in a Midtown Manhattan high-rise with a view of Times Square to discuss a common goal, getting those frackers to make money for a change.

Good luck with that.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 's')audi..... to increase carbon sequestration and hence aid in their commitments regarding reducing greenhouse gas impacts..

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')gain you are posting utter nonsense---once again you've posted something that is the exact opposite of the facts.

[tita]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', 'w')hich says absolutely nothing about where they are now. They have just passed the 50% of OOIP and Aramco has been adamant they will see at least 70% with existing technologies. Aramco has always been on the fore front of oil and gas field innovation. They basically invented the MRC wells, one of the first to fully utilize SMART completions and downhole shutoffs along with expandable liners and the first to build a fully functioning Intelligent Field where drilling, production etc are all linked digitally to their full field models. They test things to improve recovery efficiency all the time, CO2 injection is just one that you have heard about, there are a host of others that may or may not be deployed at some point. There is no rule that EOR projects are undertaken at the end of a fields normal depletion, in many cases it is instituted quite early in the history to help improve overall recovery.

[ROCKMAN]

tita - That's the tricky thing about our terminology. Ghawar has been depleting for decades. It is depleting today. And will continue depleting for many decades into the future. The rate of depletion varies over time as technology advances. More important the degree of depletion can actually DECILINE over time as new EOR techniques are applied and URR are increased. Same true for production rates. On a far smaller scale my field increased from 12 bopd to over 1,200 bopd by utilizing hz well bores. Obviously it also went from 99.99% depleted to significantly less depleted today. But it is still depleting.

And I've seen many more then one reservoir classified as fully "depleted" returned to production.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tita', ' ')When the "peak oil" subject was mainstream in 2005, one of the main argument was about Ghawar field entering fast depletion, due to EOR techniques used to increase the rate, but advance the date of the peak. 12 years have passed, no sign of depletion... more a plateau.