[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'Y')ou continually moving the goal posts ......

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')For some reason you got really wound up about my post referring to Pioneer's leading role in developing the tight oil shale resource in the Permian Basin which is described in the 2013 article from the Oil and Gas Journal that I linked to in my post above.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')Now you say you agree with the 2013 article in the Oil and Gas Journal that discusses Pioneer's leading role in developing the tight oil resource in the Permian Basin.

Sounds like we've come to a point of agreement. I'm OK with that.

[Plantagenet]

There's an excellent book that discusses how modern fracking and horizontal drilling methods have unlocked millions of barrels of oil production each day in the Bakken, Permian Basin, etc.

I suggest you might want to check out this book. Its goes into a lot more depth on this subject then I can here.

Boom-How-Fracking-Ignited-American-Revolution-Changed-World



Russell Gold, a brilliant and dogged investigative reporter at The Wall Street Journal, has spent more than a decade reporting on one of the biggest stories of our time: the spectacular, world-changing rise of “fracking.” Recognized as a finalist for the Pulitzer Prize and a recipient of the Gerald Loeb Award for his work, Gold has traveled along the pipelines and into the hubs of this country’s energy infrastructure; he has visited frack sites from Texas to North Dakota; and he has conducted thousands of interviews with engineers and wildcatters, CEOs and roughnecks, environmentalists and politicians. He has also sifted through reams of engineering reports, lawsuit transcripts, and financial filings. The result is an essential book—a commanding piece of journalism, an astounding study of human ingenuity, and an epic work of storytelling.

Cheers!

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')Yes theres been some hyberbole in our discussion but its been on both sides.

For instance you argued that some wells drilled 50 years ago in the Permian Basin are still productive, so today's production isn't anything new.

[ROCKMAN]

Apparently Mr. Gold didn't speak to any oil field hands that were involved in the massive amounts of frac'ng that was done decades before the recent period he focused on. And that includes multistage fracs in horizontal wells. The technology was readily available long before the recent shale boom. What was missing was a higher price of oil required to justify its application:

"The definition of a massive hydraulic fracturing varies somewhat, but is generally used for treatments injecting greater than about 300,000 pounds of proppant.] Pan American Petroleum applied the first massive hydraulic fracturing treatment to a well in Stephens County, Oklahoma in 1968. The treatment injected half a million pounds of proppant into the rock formation.In 1973, Amoco introduced massive hydraulic fracturing to the Wattenberg Gas Field of the Denver Basin of Colorado, to recover gas from the l ow-permeability J Sandstone. Amoco performed the first million-pound frac job, injecting more than a million pounds of proppant into the J Sand of a well in Wattenberg Field. The success of massive hydraulic fracturing in the Wattenberg Field of Colorado was followed in the late 1970s by its use in gas wells drilled to tight sandstones of the Mesaverde Group of the Piceance Basin of western Colorado.

Starting in the 1970s. thousands of tight-sandstone gas wells in the US were stimulated by massive hydraulic fracturing. Examples of areas made economic by the technology include the Clinton-Medina Sandstone play in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York; the San Juan Basin in New Mexico and Colorado; numerous fields in the Green River Basin of Wyoming; and the Cotton Valley Sandstone trend of Louisiana and Texas."

And horizontal well frac'ng: "The combination of horizontal drilling and multistage hydraulic fracturing was pioneered in Texas’ Austin Chalk play in the 1980s. Stephen Holdich, head of the Department of Petroleum Engineering at Texas A&M University, commented: “In fact, the Austin Chalk is the model for modern shale development methods.” The Austin Chalk play started in 1981 with vertical wells, but died with the decline in the oil price in 1982. In 1983, Maurer Engineering designed the equipment to drill the first medium-range horizontal well in the Austin Chalk. Horizontal drilling revived the play by increasing production, and lengths of the horizontal parts of the wellbores grew with greater experience and improvements in drilling technology. Union Pacific Resources, since absorbed by Anadarko Petroleum, entered the Austin Chalk play in a major way in 1987, and drilled more than a thousand horizontal wells in the Austin Chalk."

In the early 90's horizontal drilling in the oil window of the Austin Chalk was the biggest play on the planet. FYI: essentially the Austin Chalk is a carbonate shale. The same hz drilling equipment used in the recent shale play was used in the 90's. And the frac trucks used date back at least to the 80's.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydraulic ... ted_States

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'y')ou don't get to make up facts.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', ' ')The technology was readily available long before the recent shale boom. What was missing was a higher price of oil required to justify its application:

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')A stripper well isn't defined as = "extremely minimal production".

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')Here's what the National Stripper Well Association has to say about stripper wells: Stripper Well For tax purposes, a stripper well is defined as any oil ... well .... whose maximum daily average oil production does not exceed 15 bbls of oil,

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')IMHO the National Stripper Well Association and the various state oil and gas commissions know a lot more about stripper wells then you do---so if its all right with you I will continue to take their definition as being correct.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')IMHO the National Stripper Well Association and the various state oil and gas commissions know a lot more about stripper wells then you do---so if its all right with you I will continue to take their definition as being correct.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')After several days of your nonsensical quibbling over words whose meaning you don't know, I feel like I'm running a remedial English class for you.
Cheers!

[Plantagenet]

Wood MacKenzie Consultants suggests oil production from tight shale in the Permian may peak by 2021

US-Shales-Most-Productive-Play-May-Peak-By-2021

Conventional production around the world has already peaked. If unconventional oil production also peaks, then its time to be concerned again about reaching the overall peak in global oil production.

Cheers!

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'W')ood MacKenzie Consultants suggests oil production from tight shale in the Permian may peak by 2021

US-Shales-Most-Productive-Play-May-Peak-By-2021

Conventional production around the world has already peaked. If unconventional oil production also peaks, then its time to be concerned again about reaching the overall peak in global oil production.

Cheers!

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'T')he article referenced doesn't claim that global production of oil will peak with the Permian, but then they probably know that the Permian Wolfcamp and Spraberry formations aren't the sum total of light tight oil yet to be produced

[tita]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'C')onventional oil production rates peaked about 10 years ago.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tita', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'C')onventional oil production rates peaked about 10 years ago.

[dcoyne78]

world conv crude.gif

The Energy Matters piece says

"That limit was breached in December 2014 with a new high of 74.28 Mbpd."

I have also looked at this and if conventional oil is defined as Euan Mearns defines it and we use annual data then 2016 was the peak at 73.2 Mb/d for conventional output.

It's possible that a large field might decline rapidly, but most supergiant fields at managed very carefully and Canterell is likely to be a special case that is unlikely to be repeated. A peak by 2020 is possible, but I would put it at less than a 5% probability.
My expectation is there is a 50% probability the peak will be between 2025 and 2030 for the 12 month centered average of World C+C output, with a 25% probability it will occur before 2025 and a 25% probability it will occur after 2030, and about a 5% probability it will occur after 2035.

It is simpler to talk about C+C rather than "conventional" oil, much easier to find the data.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dcoyne78', '
')
I have also looked at this and if conventional oil is defined as Euan Mearns defines it and we use annual data then 2016 was the peak at 73.2 Mb/d for conventional output.