[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
Last week the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its World Energy Outlook 2017. The report identified four large-scale shifts underway in the global energy system: The rapid deployment and falling costs of clean energy technologies The growing electrification of energy The shift to a more services-oriented economy and a cleaner energy mix in China The resilience of shale gas and tight oil in the United States All of these shifts have implications for investors, but it was the projections on the U.S. shale boom that garnered most of the headlines. A New Oil Superpower? The report projected that the U.S. would be a net exporter of oil within a decade, and is set to become the world’s dominant oil and gas production leader for decades. The IEA further projected that the U.S. will be responsible for 80% of the world’s new oil production

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
Last week the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its World Energy Outlook 2017. The report identified four large-scale shifts underway in the global energy system: The rapid deployment and falling costs of clean energy technologies The growing electrification of energy The shift to a more services-oriented economy and a cleaner energy mix in China The resilience of shale gas and tight oil in the United States All of these shifts have implications for investors, but it was the projections on the U.S. shale boom that garnered most of the headlines. A New Oil Superpower? The report projected that the U.S. would be a net exporter of oil within a decade, and is set to become the world’s dominant oil and gas production leader for decades. The IEA further projected that the U.S. will be responsible for 80% of the world’s new oil production

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
Last week the International Energy Agency (IEA)...projected that the U.S. would be a net exporter of oil within a decade, and is set to become the world’s dominant oil and gas production leader for decades. The IEA further projected that the U.S. will be responsible for 80% of the world’s new oil production

[ROCKMAN]

P - As explained before the long term prediction of future drilling is dependent upon acuurately predicting the long term price of oil. A feat no one has yet been able to do consistently. So what are they predicting for the oil prices that will support their production prediction?

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
Last week the International Energy Agency (IEA)...projected that the U.S. would be a net exporter of oil within a decade, and is set to become the world’s dominant oil and gas production leader for decades. The IEA further projected that the U.S. will be responsible for 80% of the world’s new oil production

[onlooker]

How about this for shocking or at least realistic
https://www.thestar.com/business/2017/1 ... gests.html

U.S. vastly overstates oil output forecasts, MIT study suggests
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')The culprit, they say, lies in the Energy Information Administration’s premise that better technology has been behind nearly all the recent output gains, and will continue to boost production for the foreseeable future. That’s not quite right. Instead, the research suggests increases have been largely due to something more mundane: low energy prices, which led drillers to focus on sweet spots where oil and gas are easiest to extract.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', '.').. the long term prediction of future drilling is dependent upon acuurately predicting the long term price of oil. A feat no one has yet been able to do consistently.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')
And the projections for ever-increasing oil from TOS in the US are just nonsense. Bakken has peaked, the Eagle Ford has peaked, and the Permian is on track to peak over the next few years. Drill all you want in the lower 48 of the US, but it isn't there.

Cheers!

[coffeeguyzz]

OS
Apparently not.

For those of us who follow much of the goings on in the hydrocarbon world, particularly LTO/LTG (Gas), and the somewhat related electricity generation market on a global scale, two trends should be kept in mind.

The above referenced MIT report grossly under represents the technological advances these past 5 years in unconventional development. So much so that one wonders if a deliberate spin was attempted or the authors were spectacularly ignorant of the recent - and ongoing - advances.

Whatever.

The speed and precision that operators can now employ in unconventional plays around the US (and, eventually, other countries) will manifest as WTI rises, perhaps in the $70/$75 range.
Trends such as the TMS, Uinta, Rogersville and others are awaiting better economics for their development.

(The Austin Chalk is receiving virtually no publicity. That will change as EOG's results are replicated by other companies).
Productive areas of existing plays will greatly expand as they will be much cheaper to develop than 4 years ago.

The big enchilada waiting in the wings is natgas.
On a semi macro level, the developments in LNG handling is already expanding its potential use on a global scale for power generation.
A whole new cohort of hardware catering to micro grids will compliment the ready supply of fuel.

Long term operations of horizontal wells greatly favor gas versus oil due to simple physics.

As the continuing disasters unfold in Australia (and, soon, in New England) due to embracing renewables for large scale electricity generation, the public backlash will be severe.

Count on it.

[ROCKMAN]

Outcast - Nothing has been ignored. Hundreds of different shale formations in dozens of US petroleum basins have been studied. Many have had multiple well tests. But you wouldn't read about them unless you were an insider like the Rockman that reads such trade journals. And unless they BOOM! (which most haven't) they wouldn't show up in the MSM.

In fact you may know nothing of the Mississippian Lime and it has actually had some very modest success. The Mississippian Lime (ML), a carbonate shale formation that primarily produces oil, underlies a large portion of Northern Oklahoma and Southern Kansas. The formation has been drilled vertically since the 1940s, with its first horizontal well drilled in 2007.

But: "As drilling activity plunged in 2015, the "Miss Lime," as it is often called, experienced one of the sharpest declines in rig counts of all tight oil plays. Baker Hughes Inc. reported as of early October 2015 the ML rig count had fallen to 13 versus 79 a year earlier -- a dropoff of 84%."

It was a pretty hot land play initially. Do you recall reading much about it? And you certainly didn't here about the many formations that had no success to speak of.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')
And the projections for ever-increasing oil from TOS in the US are just nonsense. Bakken has peaked, the Eagle Ford has peaked, and the Permian is on track to peak over the next few years. Drill all you want in the lower 48 of the US, but it isn't there.

Cheers!

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'O')utcast - Nothing has been ignored. Hundreds of different shale formations in dozens of US petroleum basins have been studied. Many have had multiple well tests.

[onlooker]

This seems to be the dynamic that is playing out:
High U.S. Shale Oil Production Growth Rates Are Not Sustainable


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he implications are significant, indicating that many shale producers are being forced to produce from less prolific wells to maintain volumetric oil production growth. To capture higher volumes at higher prices they must extend production to less productive areas. Drilling into less productive acreage would lead to slower production growth rates at lower margins, as more rigs are employed driving up costs to capture greater production volumes.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')
And the projections for ever-increasing oil from TOS in the US are just nonsense. Bakken has peaked, the Eagle Ford has peaked, and the Permian is on track to peak over the next few years. Drill all you want in the lower 48 of the US, but it isn't there.

Cheers!

[onlooker]

Is Oil About To Collapse?

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/I ... 15951.html

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'I')s Oil About To Collapse?

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/I ... 15951.html

[onlooker]

Just because I agree with one or a few of the points of an article, does not mean I will or need to agree with all of it

[kublikhan]

Can you point to which points of the article you agree with then? Seems to me you would disagree with pretty much everything it says. Other than the headline of course.

1. Article: Shale production is going to keep growing
Onlooker: shale production will fall

2. Article: Oil prices are going up long term
Onlooker: Oil prices are going down long term

3. Article: Oil prices are driven by supply and demand
Onlooker: Supply and demand is BS that only trolls, or worse, economists believe

4. Article: The economy is going to continue to grow
Onlooker: The economy is going to crash

5. Article: Putting sensationalist words like “collapse”, “crash”, etc in the title & article is usually nothing more than clickbait to drive views.
Onlooker: Those are the only articles worth reading

[Cog]

Onlooker has been infected with the ETP bug and it has affected him badly. An injection of supply/demand is the only thing that can save the poor lad.