[Ibon]

Every once in awhile my doom meter swings far to the left where everything seems to be resilient and stable and nothing on either the short term or mid term horizon represents any real game changing shift to our current trajectory. At the moment I am taking this position. I perceive nothing out there that represents a viable threat to Kudzu Apes un relentless advance.

The forces we perceive as game changers of course are real; climate change, fossil fuel depletion, global debt crisis, geo political threats, etc. But at the moment they all seem snail pace gradual processes whose potential to cause major disruptions seem greatly exaggerated.

IF the marginalized suffer somewhat does this really threaten the whole?

[SeaGypsy]

Obviously you have been in paradise too long & need a holiday to a great northern megalopolis.

[onlooker]

Well other then financial meltdown or a nuclear blitzkrieg, I sort of see your point Ibon. haha

[Ibon]

Take a look at the past 200 years of modern industrial civilization and choose the most challenging events like the pandemic flu virus of 1916, WWI or WWII or the depression. Go in your mind to some of the most war torn corner of the planet or to the worst genocide events, drought stricken emaciated hunger moments. None of these events put more than the slightest dent in our trajectory.

We are all fretting over loss of lifestyle and privilege and we then project on to this a crumbing house of cards.

It isn't true, None of it. None of the threats we discuss here will threaten our species. It is all about having to struggle a bit more, losing this opulence. That is something very different from civilization crumbling.

[Ibon]

Think about something else. The demographic of posters on this site are North Americans, Europeans, Australians, a few russians. . What a coincidence that is considering that the shifting world order puts these areas in a great adjustment and decline.

Where are the Chinese voices here. Where are the voices from developing countries who thrive and persevere on 1/20th of the wealth all of us are so afraid of losing.

Many of us here have the hubris to believe that we are the few and wise who understand the ecological dilemma of human overshoot and the rest of the planet is simply lost in a delusion.

Is this not hubris? Are we free of delusions ourselves, this small party of peak oilers who all share the same demographic and all share the same unease as our little corners of the world will have to enter a period of struggle.

And we then project this into a grandiose end game for our species.

I think we are not free of delusion. I think we are delussuonists par excellence!

[onlooker]

Yes, I do have to concede that it would take a truly perfect storm of Consequences to render our species extinct. My final determination (barring new swaying info) is that our forthcoming extinction is unlikely but not impossible

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', ' ')My final determination (barring new swaying info) is that our forthcoming extinction is unlikely but not impossible

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', ' ')My final determination (barring new swaying info) is that our forthcoming extinction is unlikely but not impossible

[asg70]

Ibon is correct and no new threads need to be started to debate it.

What Ibon said about past shitty times in history when the entire globe was fighting off pandemics or world wars is on-point.

Since doomers start from the vantage point of the first world, then passing hardships like the recession are misinterpreted as TEOTWAWKI. Basically it's a "first world problem" style response to things that past generations expected to have to cope with. It only seems abnormal to us because we've been so coddled since the end of the Vietnam war.

I'm sure at some point we will indeed globally enter the true downward spiral, but when that time comes, there will be no ambiguity about it whatsoever. The only way, for instance, the global population can flatline let alone turn downward would be for there to be a truly apocalyptic grade spike in death-rates. That would require one of the fundamental pillars of civilization collapsing, like some huge weather anomaly like a steadily degrading climate that results in regular dustbowl conditions and dwindling agricultural productivity. I can see something like that happening by mid-century.

It's also possible that the rate of oil depletion will be such that classic peak oil doom scenarios do in-fact play out, or at least combine with the above. I don't see it as likely, nor for it to bite that soon, but still a possibility.

But right now, this moment, it is the calm before the storm. If this forum is still around when things really start to fall apart, the signs and portents that some here will have cited to "prove" that collapse is now will look like nothing but a king complaining about a hangnail.

[onlooker]

Well I guess then we should all just concede that "doom" is something that is very abstract and in the eyes of the beholder like beauty. I think the principal purpose of some of the posts of us more pessimistic posters is to sound a general alert to those who might hear. I think it is rather glib and short sighted to simply point out that doom happened before and is the normal state of affairs for humanity. That may be right but I happen to think that this particular suite of threats is unlike any our species has ever faced. What makes it interesting is that we are more technological and "modern" than we have ever been. I think this is imbuing many with a false sense of security.
One of the things that initially attracted me to this site was precisely that it was about Energy. Our entire technological edifice rests on availability of energy. It powers our industrial world economy.
But even beyond this is what someone like Montequest a previous poster on this site alluded to in the basic ecological condition of Overshoot of our species. Ibon, is quite familiar with all this given his education and professional background. I am just a student. We are in severe overshoot of our entire planetary environment. Ibon I think has confirmed this. This is a situation that we have never encountered as a species. So, we have no exits available like in past times with the colonization of the New World ie. Western Hemisphere. We stand perched at the height of our powers but ironically we stand at our most vulnerable point because of that. Imagine it as we have now the farthest to fall.
Our principal vulnerability is the same one many past civilizations have encountered. The Environment. The difference is everyone on the planet is to a greater and lesser degree now vulnerable as our overshoot condition is planetary across almost all areas. By overshoot it is not just in numbers but in our lifestyle and how we have come to rely so much on it for our basic survival in the rich countries. Imagine if you will the Electrical grid going down all over the US. Food delivery and other essential deliveries like medicine would stop. Water provisions in many cases would soon stop. Without lights social order could quickly cease. Hospitals would become useless. Can we really grasp what a toll this would take in terms of fatalities. And the longer this situation were to persist the greater the toll presumably. What if it suddenly became permanent. So, in summary, we stand to obliterate each other upon initiation of a Nuclear War, we stand ready to succumb in large numbers to a lethal Pandemic and we stand teetering on a crash of our Financial system that could literally bring to many people around the world this very scenario , I just described with the Electrical grid.

[Newfie]

Depressives tend to have a more accurate outlook.
Optimist tend to do better than depressives because of their rosy outlook, it keeps them slugging against odds.

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', '
') in summary, we stand to obliterate each other upon initiation of a Nuclear War, we stand ready to succumb in large numbers to a lethal Pandemic and we stand teetering on a crash of our Financial system that could literally bring to many people around the world this very scenario , I just described with the Electrical grid.

[onlooker]

To your long colliquey Asg, I can only say what did you expect when you joined this site? An epiphany, earth shaking solutions. If you did you are sadly naive. In the final analysis nobody is forcing you to stay here, if you are fed up, you can leave.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', 'I')bon is correct and no new threads need to be started to debate it.

What Ibon said about past shitty times in history when the entire globe was fighting off pandemics or world wars is on-point.

Since doomers start from the vantage point of the first world, then passing hardships like the recession are misinterpreted as TEOTWAWKI. Basically it's a "first world problem" style response to things that past generations expected to have to cope with. It only seems abnormal to us because we've been so coddled since the end of the Vietnam war.

I'm sure at some point we will indeed globally enter the true downward spiral, but when that time comes, there will be no ambiguity about it whatsoever. The only way, for instance, the global population can flatline let alone turn downward would be for there to be a truly apocalyptic grade spike in death-rates. That would require one of the fundamental pillars of civilization collapsing, like some huge weather anomaly like a steadily degrading climate that results in regular dustbowl conditions and dwindling agricultural productivity. I can see something like that happening by mid-century.

It's also possible that the rate of oil depletion will be such that classic peak oil doom scenarios do in-fact play out, or at least combine with the above. I don't see it as likely, nor for it to bite that soon, but still a possibility.

But right now, this moment, it is the calm before the storm. If this forum is still around when things really start to fall apart, the signs and portents that some here will have cited to "prove" that collapse is now will look like nothing but a king complaining about a hangnail.

[onlooker]

Okay if I am understanding, we should not cry doom because as history shows this is just standard stuff for humanity and the past 2 or 3 generations have been a true anomaly for us.
Okay fine. So climate change, peak oil, general environmental degradation together with an unsustainable population level are realities but should not be termed doom. I am okay with that as long as we concede that these are realities and that, they are getting worse
Or perhaps we can phrase it as the Overshoot Predator is getting closer and hungrier

[SeaGypsy]

(mods please merge with onlooker's unnecessary split 'Is Ibon Right?'- )

The overshoot predator is completely natural, perpetual. S/he is having a good munch right now in north Africa & parts of the middle east. Part of Ibon's OP refers to local transience, that what is perceived as global over population is in fact still a local phenomenon, affecting local populations & environments. This particular topic has been hashed over thoroughly without resolution previously in these forums. There being nothing new under the sun, it appears we are going to do it again.

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', '
')So climate change, peak oil, general environmental degradation together with an unsustainable population level are realities but should not be termed doom.

[onlooker]

That is actually a well thought out, coherent post Asg, I guess it begs the question what exactly is the use of this site. You yourself answered that you are interested in learning about you could say mitigation strategies being adopted now. I do concede that this exercise in calling out doom especially that it is nigh is tiresome. I myself was not ascribing to it in terms of dating any truly global negative events until I discovered the Etp. I still am an adherent to it and so I do think that our rich world societies are approximating a true inflection point in terms of economic disruption. I do not necessarily see this as total doom but it will pose serious challenges and hardships to the coddled entitled feeling rich world citizens. Ibon, would say it is NOT doom at all but a needed change in lifestyles and attitudes which I actually agree with.

So, in summary I suggest we do not take each other so seriously. My main reason for being here is because I am entertained by the intellectual stimulus. So it is all good especialy given that some of us are not so young and our personal doom will probably arrive before any global catastrophic one.