by kublikhan » Thu 16 Nov 2017, 01:50:39
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n a monthly report, the Paris-based body said it had revised down its demand forecasts for both this year and next by 0.1 million barrels per day (mb/d).
Fuel efficiency and rising vehicle electrification will bring a peak in oil used for passenger vehicles, even with a doubling of the auto fleet to two-billion vehicles.
Christopher Kuplen, BofAML's Research Analyst, argues that since 55 per cent of global oil is consumed in transportation, of which more than half by passenger vehicles, the demand for oil would eventually fall.
Chris Watling, CEO and chief market strategist at Longview Economics, was quoted as saying that the adoption of EVs could lead to global peak oil demand as soon as 2023, which will result in oil prices crashing to $10.
Just because oil use in passenger vehicles peaks, doesn't mean overall oil use peaks. The consumption profile of oil can change. When the oil crisis in the 70s hit, we saw oil fall out of favor in the power and heating sectors in many countries because of oil's price spice and the fact that there were viable alternatives. As increasing fuel efficiency and/or EVs become more viable for passenger vehicles, we can expect the oil consumption profile to shift again. We will see more oil being consumed in other sectors like petrochemicals, heavy vehicles, aviation, etc where alternatives are less viable and/or anticipated efficiency gains much smaller than with passenger vehicles.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')img]https://image.ibb.co/jdhU0b/Global_Transportation.jpg[/img]
• Global transportation demand grows about 25 percent from 2015-2040
• Personal mobility demands continue to increase, but more efficient vehicles lead to a peak and eventual decline in light-duty vehicle (LDV) energy demand
• Growth in economic activity and personal income drives increasing trade of goods and services, leading to higher energy demand in the commercial transportation sectors
• Heavy duty growth is the largest by volume, but marine and aviation grow the largest by percentage
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'â')€¢ Global liquids demand (oil, biofuels, and other liquid fuels) increases by around 15 Mb/d, to reach 110 Mb/d by 2035.
• Oil continues to grow (0.7% p.a.), although its pace of growth is expected to slow gradually.
•In contrast, growth in non-combusted fuel use, particularly as a feedstock in petrochemicals, remains relatively robust (2.1% p.a.) in part because of its limited scope for efficiency gains.
• As a result, despite accounting for only a small fraction (6%) of current final energy use, non-combusted fuel use becomes the largest source of fossil fuel demand growth towards the end of the Outlook. Oil accounts for around two thirds of non-combusted sector’s growth, with natural gas providing much of the remainder.