[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')

A number of countries have stated their intention to ban the internal combustion engine (ICE) and shift to all electric vehicles in the next couple of decades. These announcements are encouraging on the surface. Governments are in favor of taking serious measures to reduce petroleum dependence and meet environmental goals. But using strong-armed approaches by barring one type of vehicle from consumers could spur a backlash and ironically increase ICE usage—and in turn delay peak oil demand—over the longer term. Using strong-armed approaches by barring one type of vehicle from consumers could spur a backlash and ironically increase ICE usage—and in turn delay peak oil demand—over the longer term. Peter Tertzakian, an energy economist for ARC Energy Institute, argued in recent commentary that even with bans put in place by every country in the world and deep penetration of EVs beyond 2030,

[SeaGypsy]

Banning things rarely if ever works. I can't think of an example of the successful banning of anything besides perhaps chlorofluorocarbons, for which viable replacements were already available, that still took decades.

[vtsnowedin]

All those bans can and probably be repealed when the number of EVs gets high enough to strain the electric grid and it's fuel supplies.

[MD]

Every time there is noise of new gun bans, sales jump significantly...

[Outcast_Searcher]

In the coming decades, it's going to be about the relative economics of EV's vs. ICE's (assuming politicians continue to do little to nothing about a CO2 tax).

If gasoline prices rise meaningfully, I think HEV's could get a big boost. After all, they're becoming more and more readily available now, vs. projections of BEV's to come in X years -- and they offer pretty serious MPG boosts for often only $3,000 to $4,000. (So at $3 a gallon, saving 2000 gallons of gas over 8 years saves $6,000. At some point such numbers should matter in ICE's with 200,000+ mile expected average life spans.)

To me, what's dumb, is how little manufacturers make them attractive, re the dealers. Low inventory and few choices re the features customers want will steer customers toward the ICE, even as the companies' marketing might be touting the HEV. I don't know if this is the manufacturers' vault or the dealers' fault, or both -- but it is an example of how stupid it is not to have a meaningful CO2 tax -- which would really goose high mileage vehicle demand all by itself.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', 'I')n the coming decades, it's going to be about the relative economics of EV's vs. ICE's (assuming politicians continue to do little to nothing about a CO2 tax).

If gasoline prices rise meaningfully, I think HEV's could get a big boost. After all, they're becoming more and more readily available now, vs. projections of BEV's to come in X years -- and they offer pretty serious MPG boosts for often only $3,000 to $4,000. (So at $3 a gallon, saving 2000 gallons of gas over 8 years saves $6,000. At some point such numbers should matter in ICE's with 200,000+ mile expected average life spans.)

To me, what's dumb, is how little manufacturers make them attractive, re the dealers. Low inventory and few choices re the features customers want will steer customers toward the ICE, even as the companies' marketing might be touting the HEV. I don't know if this is the manufacturers' vault or the dealers' fault, or both -- but it is an example of how stupid it is not to have a meaningful CO2 tax -- which would really goose high mileage vehicle demand all by itself.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')...

To me, what's dumb, is how little manufacturers make them attractive, re the dealers. Low inventory and few choices re the features customers want will steer customers toward the ICE, even as the companies' marketing might be touting the HEV. I don't know if this is the manufacturers' vault or the dealers' fault, or both -- but it is an example of how stupid it is not to have a meaningful CO2 tax -- which would really goose high mileage vehicle demand all by itself.

[vtsnowedin]

I expect you would have to phase it and the tax credits in slowly, say a dime every six months. Otherwise you would never find the political will to pass it and you would create a rush to economy and electric cars beyond what the car makers could meet.

[Subjectivist]

People are igniring that ICE replaced other modes of transport because the are cheaper and easier. Unless th next big thing is cleary cheaper and easier than ICE people will resist giving up what they have now.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', 'P')eople are igniring that ICE replaced other modes of transport because the are cheaper and easier. Unless th next big thing is cleary cheaper and easier than ICE people will resist giving up what they have now.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', 'P')eople are igniring that ICE replaced other modes of transport because the are cheaper and easier. Unless th next big thing is cleary cheaper and easier than ICE people will resist giving up what they have now.

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', 'P')eople are igniring that ICE replaced other modes of transport because the are cheaper and easier. Unless th next big thing is cleary cheaper and easier than ICE people will resist giving up what they have now.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', 'P')eople are igniring that ICE replaced other modes of transport because the are cheaper and easier. Unless th next big thing is cleary cheaper and easier than ICE people will resist giving up what they have now.

[ralfy]

ICEs are needed to make EVs.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'I')CEs are needed to make EVs.

[Pennzoil bill]

I have a gut feeling that banning ICEs is another pie in the sky political stunt. I guarantee that if gasoline ever reaches $10 a gallon, electricity a KWh will not be far behind. Banning ICEs solves no problems but does make progressives happy in the same way Trump pisses them off.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'I')CEs are needed to make EVs.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'I')CEs are needed to make EVs.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')And even if what you're saying is FF burning is (currently) required to make ICE's, so what? We shouldn't make the imperfect the enemy of the good. EV's are already significantly cleaner than ICE vehicles to run per mile, even if FF's generate the power. As the power mix moves toward green, the advantage tips more toward EV's. As more vehicles become EV's including buses, trains, short haul semi's (and hopefully in the longer run, long haul semi's with modular batteries or something similar), EV's look better and better re their life-cycle CO2 footprint.

(Electric long haul planes may not be practical. If we have to ban freight by air to clean up the environment -- so be it. It's not impossible -- and a big CO2 tax would be the right economic incentive if planes end up being the last hold-out).

And meanwhile, as I understand it, Tesla is striving to make its factories greener, re using lots of solar -- so that part of the carbon footprint, at least for Tesla, will get better. Hopefully green customers and economics will get the major auto-makers to do the same thing, as time goes on.

If we never did anything because it wasn't perfect on day one or the best thing we could imagine, we'd still be living in caves and die in our 20's -- as old age.

Imagine if no one would commit to building a computer until they were sure on day one that the result was an Iphone X for under $100. Now apply that thinking to EV's, and we have your attitude if they must not be built until NO engine involved in any part of their production is an ICE.

Now, why is that even REMOTELY rational or reasonable?

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')That's because the same EVs also need major development in infrastructure, from electric grids to roads. Much of both worldwide is underdeveloped.