The Board Optimists

by **gego** » Wed 20 Jul 2005, 00:36:45

The thought occurs to me that maybe those who are optomistic are the most vunerable, least prepared, least able to survive a catastrophic breakdown in the system that provides them daily with the necessities of life. Those of us more independent of the system can afford to be more realistically pesimistic about the future, because we have most of our bases covered and will just be significantly inconvenienced while the dieoff progresses.

If I were living in an apartment in a city or a house in the suburbs with gas and electricity as my only means of climate control and dependent on a water faucit for water, the sewer system for taking away my crap, and dependent on the local grocery store for food, then I would not want to think that this could all disappear virtually overnight. I would certainly be prone to think that these things upon which I depend for life would not be brought to me regularly or that my ability to pay for them would go on indefinitely. The Titanic was unsinkable afterall.

by **gego** » Wed 20 Jul 2005, 00:43:36

Sorry for the additional post, but I meant to add that it might be an interesting experiment for you to one day go out and shut off the water valve to your house, pull the shutoff switch to your electic power, shutoff the gas valve to your house, and do not go to the grocery store under the assumption that in a real breakdown there will not be anything there.

Live like this for a month. Ok, you can go to work in your car and buy gas so that you will still have an income, but don't spend it because in a real breakdown you will not have an income.

In one month, if you really did this then tell me if your are optomistic. And remember this is a pretend experiment, so your neighbors will not be at your place to see if you have anything to take by force.

by **Pops** » Wed 20 Jul 2005, 00:45:00

I think optimism is a frame of mind but pragmatism is the field of view. The key is to keep moving the frame around to see the whole picture.

By the same analogy a Doomer has tunnel vision and thereby susceptible to blindsiding.

But really, what does it matter who thinks what? I suppose we all have similar goals - at least if we are honest in our ramblings here. No?

Do we need to put a disclaimer in our sig line like politicians so the “Other Side of the Isle” can ignore our statements?

Enough of that already I think.

Pops
(Optimistic Doomer)

by **seahorse** » Wed 20 Jul 2005, 00:51:38

First,

Pops is right, in the end, it doesn't matter what anyone else thinks. We each make our own decisions. Also, being pragmatic in life never hurt anyone.

That all being said, Gego, in your little experiment with the power being shut off etc., you're assuming those things are going to happen one day, and that makes you a pessimist. The optimist wouldn't ever do that bc the optimist thinks you're a nut for thinking that in the first place.

by **Free** » Wed 20 Jul 2005, 01:03:32

I am a realist. No, as with everything in my life I can't or don't want to decide. I guess I am lazy and an opportunist, if things turn out bad I will be a pessimist, if not an optimist.

Sometimes the picture seems so clear to me, with an absolutely vital ressource coming to an inevitable decline the dung hill just must meet the windmill.

Then again, the world is not so simple and there is so much "noise"!
Yes the supply side is pretty clear, but demand is not!
We simply can't know yet, even if in the aftermath, no matter how it turns out, some people will claim they always knew, at this point and with this data it is simply not possible to see the future.

If I would be responsible for the planning for mankind I would prepare a plan for the worst case scenario as well as for other scenarios.

Midterm could be everything from business as usual to a nuclear war, long term is likely to be "bad", but if it is stretched out long enough people won't even notice too much...

by **gego** » Wed 20 Jul 2005, 01:16:41

Actually, Seahorse, I think that people would not do this experiment because they are lazy, and that thinking such an experiment was nuts would just be the excuse to avoid discovering how vunerable they are. Hell, I doubt that most people could even turn off their tv for a week, much less a month,

Actually, I hope that most people are not aware of peak oil, or that they believe in a soft landing, or think preparations for a collapse are nuts. That gives just them that much more disadvantage in the coming struggle to survive.

by **Jack** » Wed 20 Jul 2005, 01:25:41

So much depends on definitions, doesn't it?

In a sense, you could consider me an optimist. (Those of you rolling your eyes - cut that out!)

I believe that I can survive peak oil, and even make a profit. I believe I can adapt and control the situation such that I (and a select few others) are insulated from the effects of the hardships.

Then again, I fully expect the demise of two thirds of the Earth's population over the next 50 years or so - along with considerable suffering around the world. I also expect some limited and temporary breakdown of civil authority.

It may well be that Asia, Africa, and the Indian sub-continent will implode. At the same time, I'm arranging sources of commodities that might be in short supply.

So you see, I could be in either camp.

I'll let others decide which is most appropriate.

by **Tyler_JC** » Wed 20 Jul 2005, 01:42:46

Interesting, almost everyone calls himself an optimist! :lol:

Jack is right, it all depends on the definition.

I love this line from LATOC.net

"Is There Any Reason to Remain Optimistic/Hopeful?"

If what you really mean is, "Is there any way technology or the market or brilliant scientists or comprehensive government programs are going to hold things together or solve this for me or allow for business to continue as usual?", the answer is no.

On the other hand, if what you really mean, "Is there any way I can still have a happy, fulfilling life in spite of some clearly grim facts?", the answer is yes, but it's going to require a lot of work, a lot of adjustments, and probably a bit of good fortune on your part.

by **0mar** » Wed 20 Jul 2005, 03:06:36

I'm a long-term optimist. Assuming we don't nuke ourselves, starve ourselves, or fry ourselves through global warming, I feel that humanity has almost infinite problem solving abilities. The real obstacles are systems that we have put in place that prevent these abilites from being implemented in their fullest ability.

Peak Oil is mainly an economic/overpopulation problem, a unique conflagration of a resource, system of economics and resource uniqueness. if we were on a sustainable-style economy, or growth-stable economy, then peak oil would only be a blip.

by **seldom_seen** » Wed 20 Jul 2005, 03:08:18

"In social affairs, I'm an optimist. I really do believe that our military-
industrial civilization will soon collapse." --Edward Abbey

by **Omnitir** » Wed 20 Jul 2005, 03:42:55

I consider myself an optimist. I have no doubt that there will be difficult times ahead, and there are some parts of the world I hold little hope for (but most parts of the world weren’t doing so great even with cheap oil). But I have a strong faith in human ingenuity. I believe that somehow we will overcome the problems associated with oil dependence, and we will continue to progress.

I don’t think future progress will be “business as usual” at all. At the same time I don’t believe we will revert to some past way of life. I believe that we will evolve and adapt. Future generations will consider themselves much more advanced then us, both in terms of technology and sociology.

I believe that PO will force us to evolve into a superior human race then what we currently are. It’s just the transition that I’m worried about. I think that makes me an optimist in the PO community.

Then again, I do have the occasional dark moments…

by **Barbara** » Wed 20 Jul 2005, 03:54:53

While I'm pessimist about PO response from govts, and about our future life (likely Middle-Age), I don't buy that thing of massive die off. Yes, elders will die for lack of advanced medecine and some people will kill each other, but when you think that 70% of wheat in US is used for cattle, then you see there will be not billions people starving to death.
Of course, we must forget our 3500 calories diet...

by **pea-jay** » Wed 20 Jul 2005, 04:58:54

Well I am not an optimist, when it comes to avoiding a hard crash. I maybe optimistic personally or even regionally, but overall--forget about it.

Put me in the doomer camp. We have some seriously unoptimistic times to overcome before I can be optimistic that this version of "civilization" can survive and endure.

by **Ludi** » Wed 20 Jul 2005, 08:38:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')MonteQuest is the poster child for a pessimist. Ludi might also work, but I think MQ is a bit smarter (no offense).

by **Doly** » Wed 20 Jul 2005, 09:13:55

If you think that anybody who doesn't believe in a massive dieoff is an optimist, I'm one of them. In the worst case scenario, there could be a small reduction in population, but that's as far as I'm willing to believe.

by **DomusAlbion** » Wed 20 Jul 2005, 13:34:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'D')omusAlbion, I have read many of your posts and I don't think you qualify as an optimist. (unless I'm misreading it)

by **Wildwell** » Wed 20 Jul 2005, 15:12:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'I')f you think that anybody who doesn't believe in a massive dieoff is an optimist, I'm one of them. In the worst case scenario, there could be a small reduction in population, but that's as far as I'm willing to believe.

by **Tyler_JC** » Wed 20 Jul 2005, 15:34:48

Ah, we have two different definitions.

Optimistic about the world?

Or Optimistic about my personal situation?

Nearly everyone believes they will survive (it's a natural reaction).

But how many believe that in 2100, we will have more than 5 billion people on the planet? (I don't)

I believe that a dieoff of some sort will happen relatively soon. I won't dieoff. My sister who is moving to LA for college won't die off. But the
people living on the fringes will dieoff. Those who are barely surviving right now won't make it I'm afraid. If you depend on a welfare scheme from a wealthy country in order to keep your country afloat, your people will suffer horribly.

North Korea will see a continued dieoff. South Korea will probably be ok for the next decade or two.

I am pessimistic about the continued existence of this civilization. I believe that when I am 70 (2050's), I will be sitting around a fire with a few of the village children explaining what an electric toothbrush was.

Others may think that eletric toothbrushes will still be produced in the 2050's, I consider that an illogical point of view based on what we know now.

by **Permanently_Baffled** » Wed 20 Jul 2005, 15:46:36

I am a moderate , and my definition is :

Peak oil will :

1. Result in Economic recession for 5-10 years and then depression :shock:

2. Result in mass "die off" in Africa, India, China, Japan, Pakistan, Mexico, South east asia. This die off will be of the violent , starving and disease variety. This will be circa 30-40 years post peak.

3. Result in die off in the west but by a increase in the death rate caused by not artifically keeping people alive by advanced medical care and complex treatments (cancers, transplants, by passes etc), but no starvation , anarchy , mass disease or nuclear war. Also the birth rate will continue to fall. This scenario will stretch over 50-75 years. :cry:

4. Result in western societies becoming much like Eastern Europe / WWII Britain / allotment societies. All the useless supermarkets, retail parks, suburbia etc will overtime be ripped down and replaced with grasslands for grazing , or the soil upgraded sufficiently to grow crops.This will at least provide some employment. Unemployment benefits will be replaced with coupons for food/water and nothing else. Transport will be limited to mass transit options like trains , but will be prioritised for goods. Energy will be restricted for government, police, military , essential industry, mass transit, water and agriculture.

Wow I am looking forward to this already! (not!)

On bad days Aaron's thermonuclear fuckfests depress me , but I am not sure even the yanks are mad enough to kick start such a nightmare.

PB

by **Permanently_Baffled** » Wed 20 Jul 2005, 15:49:02

Oh by the way Tyler that was a very short break.

You are PO.com addict ! :lol:

PB

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