[ROCKMAN]

That's Santa Clause, you potatoe head. Dan Qual told me so. LOL.

[Outcast_Searcher]

I'm all for higher oil prices, putting some further constraint on how much we burn, and incenting more development of green energy faster.

OTOH, the US is not the whole world, and not close to the only source for fracked oil, whether the doomers want us to believe that or not.

Source:

https://www.amazon.com/Domino-Effect-Ru ... 0692503013

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')Considering how bad the reporting has been on most concepts contained within the US shale revolution (geology, engineering, economics) I find it unlikely that the same reporters that screw that up consistently were suddenly struck by a desire to write old fashioned. More likely they started out as twittering and tweeting experts and just screwed it up, and there editors didn't catch it, but now a day or so later you would think they would fix it. Or do people not even care about the obvious hiccups in these kinds of things in the world nowadays?

Seriously, I've interviewed candidates for positions who misspelled the title of their dissertation in their resume, how does ANYONE do that? But he was younger, it was his 2nd PhD, and it didn't seem to bother him in the least when I asked him about it.

[ROCKMAN]

Outcast - Actually at the moment the US is the focus of oil PRODUCTION from shale. But according to the EIA there are over 400 billion bbls of "UNPROVED technically recoverable" reserves scattered around the globe. We just have to wait for companies to drill a lot of wells to turn those into PROVEN COMMERCIALLY recoverable reserves.

https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'O')utcast - Actually at the moment the US is the focus of oil PRODUCTION from shale. But according to the EIA there are over 400 billion bbls of "UNPROVED technically recoverable" reserves scattered around the globe. We just have to wait for companies to drill a lot of wells to turn those into PROVEN COMMERCIALLY recoverable reserves.

https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/

[Cliffhanger1983]

The world's largest oil trader Vitol says US oil production will peak in 2018
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-comm ... SKBN1CF1MZ


The Mighty U.S. Shale Oil Industry to Lose Another $20 Billion In 2017
https://srsroccoreport.com/the-mighty-u ... n-in-2017/


MIT Technology Review: Shale Oil Will Boost U.S. Production, But It Won’t Bring Energy Independence
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/5074 ... ependence/

[ROCKMAN]

70 - "...the usual suspects here will claim none of it is recoverable...until it actually shoots out a car's tailpipe.". Not really. None of it will become "recoverable" reserves until someone starts drilling up those untested POTENTIAL shale plays scattered around the globe. Which, at the moment outside of the US, don't add up to sh*t. LOL. Which is why you don't see any credible source posting an estimate of PROVEN ECONOMICALLY RECOVERABLE shale reserves for the entire world.

Nothing wrong with berating folks for not accepting FACTS. But doing it before those FACTS are established seems rather childish IMO.

[ROCKMAN]

Cliffy - Vitol says US oil production will peak in 2018? You must mean peak again I assume. According to the EIA our production recently peaked in March 2015:

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... rfpus1&f=m

Vitol is predicting 10 million bopd for the next peak...about 1.3% higher then the March 2015 peak. Not exactly a great record breaking achievement. But remarkable given the much lower oil price. And still a tad less then the all time peak in Dec 1970. But, as they say, beats a poke in the eye with a sharp stick. LOL.

And it still so funny to see so many claiming that overall the petroleum industry is loosing money developing the shale plays. It represents an almost childlike level of understanding how businesses are run. And there will certainly be negative responses to that statement. And from folks who, despite all the references they post, actually don't access to the data needed to support such claims.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hich, at the moment outside of the US, don't add up to sh*t. LOL. Which is why you don't see any credible source posting an estimate of PROVEN ECONOMICALLY RECOVERABLE shale reserves for the entire world.

[ROCKMAN]

Yes, the Vaca Muerta stands out. And that's the probable: all of Argentina (not just the VM) holds 27 billion bbls of unproven technologically recoverable reserves according to the EIA:

https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/

That represents about 6% of the global estimate of UTR the EIA estimates for the planet. Add the 19% it attributes to the US and it adds to 25%. So the question remains: where is the other 75%.

And while one can't dispute the shale development that has happened in the US and what's happening in Argentina it doesn't change the fact that the EIA number is UNPROVEN tectonically recoverable reserves.

IOW we still have a ways to go before the shale plays can have a major impact on the global production rate. And then, just like in the US, only if continuous drilling programs are sustained to offset the initial high decline rates. Which means the global drilling budget will have to be many times greater then what was experienced in the US. US capex expenditures that were funded by a significant amount of investments and debt. IOW for global shales to experience the level of growth experienced in the US and now developing in Argentina will require a truly massive increase in global investments and debt.

And back to the original point: it isn't a question of there being another large potential shale play somewhere in the world. But how much of those global shales have the potential to be significantly productive? The US has dozens of distinct shale formations in basins with a proven history of oil generation. And collectively those formations add up to tens of thousands of feet in thickness. And despite hundreds of wells testing those formation only two of them with a combined thickness of less then 1,000' account for 80%+ of the total shale production.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'O')utcast - Actually at the moment the US is the focus of oil PRODUCTION from shale. But according to the EIA there are over 400 billion bbls of "UNPROVED technically recoverable" reserves scattered around the globe. We just have to wait for companies to drill a lot of wells to turn those into PROVEN COMMERCIALLY recoverable reserves.

https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')y source (book above) points out that the primary reason that the development has gone on far more in the US than the rest of the world isn't that the US somehow has magically unique rock formations for frackable oil shale -- but that laws, capital, and a system that encourages entrepreneurial risk favored the US. Oh, and environmental issues were constraining production in Europ

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')y source (book above) points out that the primary reason that the development has gone on far more in the US than the rest of the world isn't that the US somehow has magically unique rock formations for frackable oil shale -- but that laws, capital, and a system that encourages entrepreneurial risk favored the US. Oh, and environmental issues were constraining production in Europ

[Cliffhanger1983]

US Shale Oil has never made any profits and loses billions every year –Bloomberg
https://imgur.com/a/m8AY0



Worlds Largest Mining Company BHP is Exiting U.S. Shale
https://www.upi.com/Energy-News/2017/10 ... 508318297/

[Cliffhanger1983]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Anglo-Australian miner bought the US oil and gas assets at the height of the boom, when oil prices were above $100 a barrel. The division has become a lightning rod for dissatisfaction with the company’s strategy, with BHP under pressure from investors, including billionaire Paul Singer’s Elliott Advisors, to spin off the unit as oil prices struggle to recover above the $50-a-barrel level.

[onlooker]

https://srsroccoreport.com/the-mighty-u ... n-in-2017/
The Mighty U.S. Shale Oil Industry To Lose Another $20 Billion In 2017

[onlooker]

Yea and what alternative do they have? It truly is the sector too important to fail. As Short said the Energy sector will cannibalize the rest of the Economy and like cancer will kill its host and itself simultaneously lol