[jawagord]

It makes no financial sense to disconnect from grid power if you are already connected. If you are planning to live in a remote location that doesn't have power and its going to cost $30,000+ to bring in power, then maybe it would work out for you. Our local utility sells solar power systems w/o battery back-up, using grid back-up, the website says they've installed 600 home systems for a population served of 2.5 million, proving you can only fool some of the people some of the time!

From Telsa Canada Website

Order Summary
One 14 kWh Powerwall battery (to power lights, plug-ins, 1 stove for a day)
$7,800
Supporting hardware
$950
Price for Powerwall equipment
$8,750

Typical installation cost ranges from $1,050 to $2,700. This does not include solar installation, electrical upgrades (if necessary), taxes, permit fees, or any retailer / connection charges that may apply. Installation cost will vary based on your electrical panel, and where you would like your Powerwall installed. Installation will be scheduled after you place your order.
Canada installation Canada

So cost for 1 day of minimal back-up power capacity is $10,000, and that's without any solar panel generation. I'll be sticking with my fossil fueled grid supplied power thank you.

[KaiserJeep]

Jawagord, again your inherent assumption is that things will always be more or less the same as today. But the basic premise of peakoil.com is that the fundamental theory of M. King Hubbert is valid. Furthermore, the other energy sources such as coal and uranium are heavily dependant upon cheap motor fuels to mine, and uranium is then dependant upon grid electricity for enrichment to power plant grade material. The implication being that transport fuels and grid electricity from all power plants will more or less appreciate in price on the downslope of the oil production peak.

I would go so far as to say that oil production has peaked already. Nor would anybody dispute Hubbert's other assertion that oil discoveries would peak before production peaks. Hubbert did not forecast the shales and tar sands and the like, or more modern well extraction methods such as hydraulic fracking, but his forecast of peak production from conventional wells is (most here would agree) in the past. The production peak in conventional oil occurred in the late 2000's. All since then is smoke and mirrors and alternative oils.

Fossil fuel energy will slowly appreciate in price forever past this point is my fundamental assumption. If we have a big enough headstart on the infrastructure renewal and the adoption of renewable energies, we can preserve some semblance of the present energy hog American lifestyle. But if we do not begin conversion of the infrastructure before then, we will not have the resources to do so, and our quality of life will suffer drasticly in the fossil fuel powerdown.

We practice what we preach here. GHung has an off-grid rural residence and farm, with solar panels and batteries. Baha is a solar photovoltaic installer with solar panels and a Tesla Powerwall battery. I have a grid-attached solar roof in California, where early this year on May 13 the state achieved a record day with 80.7 percent of grid power from renewable energy sources (including hydropower).

Convert to renewables or plan to live without electrical energy, because the oil peak happened already.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'k')ub, my basic assumption is that oil peaked and is in decline. Natural Gas and Coal will also peak. Then FF-sourced grid electricity, and transportation, will eventually be 10X (or more) as expensive as today, prohibitively expensive.

Last assumption: we must use the last gasp of FF's to convert the country's power infrastucture to renewables. This is without even disputing your numbers. The IER figures say coal powered electricity costs $0.032 kWh to produce, and after the markups that comprise the grid expenses and profit, it sells for a retail price of about $0.130 kWh. When coal fired electricity is selling for $1.30 kWh (mainly because we ran out of cheap oil to mine it with), wind and solar PV are both far more attractive than FF's - lots cheaper, even with batteries.

Remember the oil peak.

[KaiserJeep]

kub, again I have never disputed that residential scale solar is more expensive on a per kilowatt basis than is central power plant. But the cost-of-generation is then marked-up to allow for power company profit and to cover the power grid expenses. California has recently proved that large solar is not cost effective (either in solar PV or solar thermal), and that residential scale all the way up to medium scale Solar PV is practical, economical, and increases grid stability while reducing the need for "peaking" facilities. Silicon Valley where I live has enough residences with solar PV roofs, and medium-sized solar PV in parking lots, schools, and shopping malls, that we have virtually idled the CALPINE gas turbine peaking plant about two miles from my home.

The last part of the equation: after total infrastructure renewal, the energy required for transport, buildings, manufacturing, and agriculture is reduced to 1/6th the present level, with no serious lifestyle change, and using present technology for everything, no pie-in-the-sky tech required.

We are talking LED lighting versus incandescent, superinsulated structures, the elimination of "security lighting" which causes our planet to gleam into space at night, HVAC via ground source heat pump, etc. etc.

Reduce energy demand by 5/6ths over a few decades, and continue to live a modified version of the current American lifestyle after the decline of fossil fuels. Renewables are sufficient if we reduce power demand at the same time we bring them online.

The catch: Two generations of hardship to renew the infrastructure - but with high employment. But it's essential that we start soon, the runway is short before the FF price escalation,

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'C')alifornia has recently proved that large solar is not cost effective (either in solar PV or solar thermal), and that residential scale all the way up to medium scale Solar PV is practical, economical, and increases grid stability while reducing the need for "peaking" facilities.

[ROCKMAN]

k - Texas may be on the verge of proving solar's large scale viability. Remember one big advantage: we already spent $7 BILLION to upgrade the grid to handle wind power. All solar need do is tie in. From

https://www.seia.org/state-solar-policy/texas-solar

Facts on the Texas Solar Industry
• Solar Installed: 1,620.2 MW (676.3 MW in 2016)
• National Ranking: 7th (6th in 2016)
• Total Solar Investment in State: $2.52 billion ($915.81 million in 2016)
• State Homes Powered by Solar: 182,000
• Percentage of State’s Electricity from Solar: 0.39%
• Growth Projections and Ranking: 4,671 MW over next 5 years (ranks 2nd)

And remember Georgetown, Texas, is the first major city planning to go 100% renewable with a new solar farm built specifically for the project and combined with an existing wind farm.

[kublikhan]

Rockman - KaiserJeep was talking about unplugging from the grid and going solar PV + batteries. Sure you could do that, but it is cheaper to stay grid connected.

[GHung]

As I've said before, it's as much about mindset than anything else. It pretty much goes WHOOSH for most of you because you accept the convenience and faux-security of hyper-complexity as normal and right. Like the rest of you, I'm a slave of centralized complexity, but I can't think of a better way to spend a few extra bucks than to reduce or eliminate those connections one at a time.

[kublikhan]

Ghung - just because people decide they don't want to pull the plug and go off grid doesn't mean we don't understand how it could be done. It's just not a very compelling option for most of us.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'E')xisting costs for grid electricity are fairly modest. And that modest cost energy is available to us 24/7. Also, there is very little education that you need for using grid electricity. So grid electricity is cheap, convenient, and requires very little education. You are proposing we consider a system that is expensive, inconvenient, and requires a considerable amount of education to bring us up to speed. All for a modest payoff at best. This is not a very compelling argument you are making. So I don't think it is that surprising that hardly anyone considers doing this.

[GHung]

"Ghung - just because people decide they don't want to pull the plug and go off grid doesn't mean we don't understand how it could be done. It's just not a very compelling option for most of us."

As I said; WHOOSH. It's not about HOW it could be done.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GHung', 'A')s I said; WHOOSH. It's not about HOW it could be done.

[GHung]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GHung', 'A')s I said; WHOOSH. It's not about HOW it could be done.

[GHung]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GHung', 'A')s I've said before, it's as much about mindset than anything else. It pretty much goes WHOOSH for most of you because you accept the convenience and faux-security of hyper-complexity as normal and right. Like the rest of you, I'm a slave of centralized complexity, but I can't think of a better way to spend a few extra bucks than to reduce or eliminate those connections one at a time.

[kublikhan]

GHung - I am not threatened by someone living off grid nor do I think it is inferior. I applaud your unconventional lifestyle. Those "facts and figures" were not intended to persuade you my way of life is superior to yours. They were there to make a simple point: for a given lifestyle unplugging from the grid is more expensive than staying on the grid. That's it. From that simple point you construed it was over my head that there are other reasons for going off grid besides money. Duh. We all get that Ghung.

[KaiserJeep]

Kub, again I make the point: the basic premise with peak oil is that energy will increase in cost forevermore. Just how long the downward sloping production curve is depends upon how soon a FF panic sets in, it could be tomorrow or it could be 3-5 decades away - no way to predict that one with human psychology in the mix.

The Solar PV and wind residential systems are attractively priced NOW. Best have something before dwindling FF supplies drive up the price. Wait too long, own candles and curse the darkness.

Consider for one moment the viability of your current residence when HVAC costs have gone up 10X. Again, no way to know when that will happen.

[kublikhan]

KaiserJeep - I am a proponent of Solar PV & wind. However I am not convinced unplugging from the grid and turning every home into a power plant is the most cost effective option. I think it would be cheaper to let the utility install the Solar PV & wind. The grid has economy of scale advantages, distributed energy works better when connected to your neighbors(your surplus is routed to your neighbor's deficit), you get professionals maintaining the system instead of amateurs, etc.

Those residential systems look attractively priced now because of subsidies. However once those subsidies are removed, they don't look so attractive anymore. We have seen solar PV installations fall off a cliff every time subsidies are cut back. Spain, Nevada, Hawaii, etc.

My view of the future is a bit more optimistic than yours. I am not predicting candles in my future. Foolishly optimistic? Perhaps. But I will take my chances.

[ROCKMAN]

k - "Sure you could do that, but it is cheaper to stay grid connected." Thanks. Residential solar might work OK in some areas. But as you point out those economics will look poor in some situations.. And Texas will be one state where those economics will struggle against our relatively local commercial rates.

And again due much to the high connectivity of our grid that's managed by a true electricity czar...EXCOT. And with our deregulated power I have numerous companies competing for my business. The best deals now: free nights (2200-0500 hrs) and weekends. And as far as backup for losing the grid, like during a hurricane, a gasoline generator is much more economical. Especially when you inherit one at no cost like I did. And after 10 years I still haven't had to use it even once.

And I grew up in south Louisiana so if need be I'm OK without AC. But not my Yankee wife. So have a 110 window unit to keep her and the dogs cool. And our propane grill is our preferred method anyway. I would enjoy setting up a small set of panels on the top of my carport just for fun now that costs have come down. But stuck in a wheel chair kills that idea: paying someone to rig up a hobby project doesn't work for me.

But my wife did find some cheap solar powered string lights for the patio and they're neat.